Category Archives: Korean Conflicts

North Korea on the Brink: “We’re in Deep Doo-Doo”

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US and South Korean officials believe that North Korea is on the brink of firing multiple Musudun intermediate range ballistic missiles. The Musudun is an untested weapon that is believed to have a 3500 kilometer range which would put US bases in Japan, Okinawa and Guam in range. US and South Korean intelligence services also note that a number of other mobile missile launchers been moved about the country.

This comes on the heels of a number of unprecedented escalations by Kim Jong Un and North Korean military leaders. In the past few days the North has closed the last remaining joint project with the South, the Kaesong joint industrial zone sending tremors through the South Korean business and banking industries. They also warned foreign diplomats in Pyongyang that it could not guarantee their safety and warned foreigners to leave South Korea. Those warnings followed nuclear tests, the firing of a long range missile and threats of a nuclear attack on the United States.

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Admiral Samuel Locklear, Commander of US Pacific Command said today that he “couldn’t recall a time of greater tension in the region since the end of the Korean War.” The US and South Koreans now believe that unlike past missile tests that the North could launch without warning. In preparation for any contingency US, South Korean and Japanese Aegis Guided Missile Destroyers have been deployed,the US has deployed THADD ballistic missile defense systems to Guam and the Japanese have deployed Patriot anti-missile defense batteries in Tokyo.

Both the Chinese Communists and Russians have sent warnings to the North about their displeasure with its provocations and escalation.

To add an additional measure of seriousness to a potentially grave situation former US Vice President Dick Cheney told a group of Republican lawmakers that “we are in deep Doo-Doo.” Since Cheney is very knowledgable about Doo-Doo and its consequences we have to take this serious situation even more seriously.

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But seriously, despite Dick Cheney’s levity we are facing a potentially volatile situation which through a miscalculation by any side could lead to a general war. Since we know little about the inner workings of the post-Kim Jong Il led North Korea, and even less about the current leader Kim Jong Un it is hard to predict what will happen. In the past the former leader Kim Jong Il would push to the brink of war but then pull back after getting some kind of concession. However Kim Jong Un has not seemed to know any limits in pushing the envelope, thus placing the world in very uncharted and dangerous waters.

A launch of one of the longer range missiles could trigger a war if it tracks toward Japan, Okinawa or Guam. Any missile intercept of a North Korean missile by the US, Japan or South Korea could be a trigger for the North to push even more and maybe even attack South Korean territory.

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As Barbara Tuchman said “war is the unfolding of miscalculations.” I do hope that Kim Jong Un will back down and not push the region into a war that could kill, wound and displace millions of people, damage the world economy and plunge the region and maybe the world into the abyss of war.

Peace

Padre Steve+

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Missile Impotence: Kim Jong Un’s Rocket Launch goes Splat

Don’t call it a failure to launch but a failure to fly. Tonight the rocket shot to commemorate the 100th anniversary of the birth of the Most Beloved High Great Celestial Leader Kim Il Sung broke apart and crashed about 90 seconds into its flight. Debris crashed into the Yellow Sea about 165 km west of South Korea. Reports from South Korea say that South Korean Naval vessels are searching for debris which would help it to further understand how well developed North Korean missile technology really is.  Be assured that North Korean ships will likely speed to the scene which could trigger naval clashes between the two states.

The rocket called the Unha-3 was launched at 0739 local time from the missile facility at Tongchang-Ri.  Based on the Taepodong ballistic missile the three stage Unha-3 was to launch the Kwangmyongsong-3 weather satellite into a Polar orbit. Or that was the story  told by the North Koreans who had allowed numerous western reporters to visit the site and see the satellite. Most Western, South Korean and Japanese analysts believed that the launch was more of a cover to test a longer range ballistic missile which could provide North Korea with the capability to strike the United States.

Kim Jong Un and his Generals give each other the Clap

North Korea defied warnings from the United States, Japan, South Korea and the United Nations in launching the rocket.  Speculation runs rife as to the motives of the North Koreans for launching. With the recent ascent of the young and inexperienced Kim Jong Un the grandson of Kim Il Sung and son of Kim Jong Il to the leadership of the nation it is possible that Kim Jong Un went ahead with the launch in order to show his strength in defying international sanctions and condemnation. South Korea described the launch as a “grave provocation” while Secretary of State Hillary Clinton said “This launch will give credence to the view that North Korean leaders see improved relations with the outside world as a threat to the existence of their system” and warned “And recent history strongly suggests that additional provocations may follow.”

The North Koreans had invited in over 100 journalists from around the world to report on the launch, a clear departure from previous very secretive launches.  Reports indicate that instead of getting briefings about the launch that North Korean minders when asked about the failure shrugged and ran away and that a scheduled press conference was cancelled.

Pyongyang we have a problem…

Since the North publicized the launch the regime will have to determine how it will advertise the failure to the world and its people.  It would have a hard time admitting any technical mistakes so look for the regime to either blame the South Koreans or Americans for shooting it down.  Another option is to declare this an act of sabotage carried out by traitors or western agents.

The implications of this failure could be dangerous. There could be internal political ramifications in North Korea which could destabilize the regime or trigger conflict with South Korea and its allies. It could speed up a suspected nuclear weapons test and bring about even great tensions. Consequences for the designers, builders and managers of the Unha-3 program will probably be severe. If I were a North Korean rocket scientist involved with the project I would make sure that I paid my life insurance premium in full and make a run to the Chinese border.

Since little is known about the internal political struggles except that the North Korean Military is the most powerful institution in the impoverished country it is hard to determine what will happen next. One thing that can be said is that the launch and its failure will serve to ratchet up tensions and add to the uncertainty on the Korean Peninsula and in the region.

Maybe it is fitting that the anniversary of Kim Jong Il’s birth happens to be the same as the sinking of the Titanic. Obviously there will be much more to come…

Peace

Padre Steve+

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The Miracles of Kim Jong Il and the Rise of the Kim Jong Un, the Un-Kim: North Korea in Transition

 

Kim Jong-Un leads the procession for his Father Kim Jong Il (AP Photo)

North Korean Dictator until Death Kim Jung Il was able to join his friends Adolf, Joe, Muammar, Osama and Saddam just in time for the annual Christmastime in Hell celebration.  Of course Kim Jong Il was much more of a man than his buddies. According to North Korean State media Kim was the greatest golfer who ever lived and that miraculous signs appeared in the heavens when he was born.  He could walk by three weeks of age and talk by the time he was 8 weeks old and never had to worry about potty-training.  As an adult he is said to have written 1500 books in 3 years and written the greatest operas ever written. That is right North Korean state media at one time reported why the miracle child never had to be potty-trained. According to them Kim never had to take a piss or a crap thus meaning that he didn’t have to be potty trained. That my friends undoubtably puts him at the top of the world’s shit list.

He was incredibly talented man so much so that he is said to have written 1500 books in 3 years and written the greatest operas ever written.  He is also one of the very few people that gained weight in North Korea during his reign miraculously surviving famine by eating only the best fresh lobster flown in daily, prepared by his personal chef and washed down with the best French wines, champagne and Hennessy cognac.  He was also a style icon who influenced countless people to wear sunglasses all over the world.

Fashion Icon…

He was treated as if he were a deity by North Korean state media, which is pretty ironic considering that North Korea is officially an atheist state.  But for a near deity Kim seemed a bit afraid of death, or at least flying.  It seems that if he had the choice he would always travel by train.  There are rumors that the reason he feared flying was due to the book Fear of Flying written by his distant American relative Erica Jong.  Evidently he believed that as Ms Jong wrote “There are no atheists on turbulent airplanes.” Thus as an atheist that believed himself to be a deity he was not able to get on an airplane.

His funeral was today and had all the hallmarks of the great fun had by North Koreans during his 17 year reign.  The thrilling sounds of the Gulags were reproduced as thousands of mourners wailed and even gnashed their teeth along the route travelled by his funeral motorcade.  The 1975 Lincoln Continental that was used as a hearse was a nice touch although Kim violated funeral decorum by riding atop rather than in the armored Lincoln.  It kind of reminded me of Aunt Edna riding atop the Wagon Queen Family Truckster in the original National Lampoon’s Vacation, but I digress….

His successor Kim Jung-Un who is affectionately known as the Un-Kim was prominent at the funeral looking all spiffy in a black overcoat and saluting as smartly any recently appointed 4 Star General would the Un-Kim led the delegation followed by North Korean military officers all planning to see who might undo the Un-Kim in the near future.  Interestingly the Un-Kim’s brothers were not at the funeral of their father, or were at least not shown on the media, perhaps because they were in the process of either fleeing the country or going to a gulag for a vacation.  Evidently the original heir apparent Kim Jong-nam blew his chance of getting the job when he got arrested at Tokyo airport traveling on a Dominican passport under a fake Chinese name with two women in tow.  The other son that had a chance at the job Kim Jong-chul was not considered because according to Fujimori Kim Jong-chul was too “nansy pansy” for the job, too much like a “little girl.”

We don’t know much about the Un-Kim except that he appears to be Asian and apparently speaks fluent Korean. He reportedly went to an English school in Switzerland under a fake name which means that he may also speak English. Fellow students say that he told them while watching Team America that Kim Jong Il was his father, to which a classmate responded “yeah, like Darth Vader is Luke Skywalker’s dad.”  Evidently the Un-Kim loves NBA basketball and during the player’s lockout was quite disappointed that his hero Michael Jordan didn’t execute a few players to make a point and end the strike sooner.

We don’t know if he is quite the prolific writer and connoisseur of food and film as his father but he has been described by Kenji Fujimori, his father’s personal chef as having “superb physical gifts, is a big drinker and never admits defeat.” If this is true the Un-Kim is an physically fit obnoxious drunk which is exactly the kind of leader that a paranoid and starving country armed with nuclear weapons needs.

So anyway with that said let us all raise a glass to the new Dictator Until Death Kim Jong Un and pray that somehow just maybe that his love of the NBA will cause him not to start any wars.  We’ll see how long this lasts…

Peace

Padre Steve+

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High Stakes Game of Chicken on the Korean Peninsula

The USS George Washington and her Battle Group arrived in the Yellow Sea

The game is on.  The U.S. Navy and South Korean Navy task forces are moving into position, the South Korean Military is on its highest peacetime alert and the North Korean military is moving fresh batteries of Surface to Air and Ground to Sea missiles into place.  While diplomats from the United States, China and Japan seek to avert a war the North Koreans continue to stoke the fire with fresh artillery fire near Yeonpyeong Island which it brutally attacked earlier in the week.  In the South popular protests are rising against any soft treatment of the North and the commanding General of the South Korean Marine Corps Maj. Gen. You Nak-jun attended the funeral for the two Korean Marines killed in the attack said “Our marine corps … will carry out a hundred- or thousand-fold,” retaliation against North Korea for launching Tuesday’s attack, You said, without elaborating as to what he meant by the comment. The Defense Minister Kim Tae-young resigned after the attack on Yeonpyeong Island, and veterans of the South Korean military protested Saturday in Seoul, stating they were angry that the South Korean government had not done enough to respond to the North’s shelling.

Silkworm Missile being fueled

North Korean rhetoric continues to rise in its belligerence and a North Korean State Committee for the Peaceful Reunification of Korea, the state agency in charge of relations with the South said in a statement carried by the North Korean Central News Agency (KCNA):  “Gone are the days when verbal warnings are served only, escalated confrontation would lead to a war,” and that the North Korean military was “getting fully ready to give a shower of dreadful fire and blow up the bulwark of the enemies if they dare to encroach again upon the North’s territory.”  The KCNA also said “If the U.S. brings its carrier to the West Sea of Korea at last, no one can predict the ensuing consequences.”

South Korean Aegis DDG

The defense drills begun today by United States and South Korean forces in the Yellow Sea involve the carrier USS George Washington as well as the Aegis Cruisers USS Cowpens and USS Shiloh and the Guided Missile Destroyer USS Stethem. South Korea has deployed one of its Aegis destroyers and two destroyers as well as frigates and anti-submarine aircraft.

North Korean forces have brought in SA-2 SAM batteries which an anonymous South Korea government source says “appear to be targeting our fighter jets that fly near the Northern Limit Line.” The source also reported that the South Korean “military is preparing for the possibility of further provocations as the North Korean military has deployed firepower near the NLL and is preparing to fire.”

Additionally the North is mounting C-201 Silkworm Ground to Sea anti-ship missiles on launchers along the coast in the disputed area which also hosts bases for submarines like the one that is believed to have sunk the South Korean Corvette Cheonan in March as well as fast attack craft mounting Styx anti-ship missiles.  If they were to attack the task force the North would likely attempt a saturation attack using ground and sea based SSMs against the Allied ships, however the task force includes at least 4 Aegis equipped guided missile cruisers and destroyers is well equipped to meet that threat.

The situation is tense and no one really knows exactly how it will develop is yet unseen but it will not take much to provoke a conflict that could engulf the region.

Peace,

Padre Steve+

 

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