Tag Archives: libyan military

March 20, 2011 · 23:42

Strike on Libya: The Unknown outcome of Operation Odyssey Dawn

Libyan Rebels among tanks and vehicles destroyed by coalition air strikes outside Benghazi (AFP photo)

“No plan survives contact with the enemy.” Field Marshal Helmuth Von Molkte the Elder

“War is the province of chance. In no other sphere of human activity must such a margin be left for this intruder. It increases the uncertainty of every circumstance and deranges the course of events.”
– Karl von Clausewitz

Under the authority of a United Nations Security Council resolution the military forces of a number of NATO nations began air and missile strikes against Libyan air defenses command a control facilities and ground forces.  While the United States and British Royal Navies lobbed salvoes of Tomahawk cruise missiles aircraft from France, Britain, the United States launched the initial air strikes. They have been joined by or soon will be joined by aircraft from Italy, Spain, Denmark, Norway, Canada and Qatar, the first Arab nation to participate. A number of other Arab countries may join the force as operations move from air strikes to the enforcement of the no-fly zone itself. The French Navy has deployed the nuclear aircraft carrier Charles de Gaulle from Toulon and it will join the naval forces in conducting air strikes and enforce the no-fly zone.

Air strikes have significantly degraded Libya’s air defenses and blasted Libyan forces arrayed against the rebel stronghold of Benghazi. The attacks on the ground forces stopped the Libyan attack in its tracks and the rebels have returned to the advance after appearing to be on the verge of a last stand against Gaddafi’s forces. In the past few days Gaddafi and his son Saif Al Islam Gaddafi have said that they would destroy the revolt and show “no mercy” in doing so. It is my belief that Libyan military officers and forces which have been “on the fence” will join the revolt in short order as the rebel forces renew their advance to the west as their loyalty to the regime is tenuous at best.

The strikes though extensive seem to have avoided doing to the Libyan people what was done to the Iraqi people and not targeted power plants or other infrastructure needed by the Libyan people. In other words NATO is trying to make sure that the Libyan people do not suffer for Gaddafi’s crimes. Gaddafi is trying to play up the attack as an attack against Libya by the “Crusader or Colonial enemy.”

Gaddafi has said that he will wage a “long war” and that he would arm a “million civilians” as loyalists gathered in his compound to act as a human shield to protect Gaddafi.  Gaddafi is known for his propaganda and his ruthlessness so we have to believe that he will at least attempt to resist but arming a million civilians is likely beyond his logistical capabilities while under heavy bombardment. The United States and NATO have said that they have not targeted Gaddafi but of course as everyone knows no one would object if Gaddafi happened to be in the neighborhood of a military target.

As the operation is in its early stages it is unknown how it will turn out. Morally and under the United Nations charter it is the right thing to do as Gaddafi was killing civilians and on the verge of killing many more and making the humanitarian crisis even worse. Unfortunately when any military operation is undertaken the consequences are and outcomes are never pre-determined. One hopes that the strikes will keep Gaddafi from killing more of his own people and causing greater chaos in the region. One also hopes that it will encourage the pro-democracy and secular movements that began in Iran but was crushed but which has taken root in Tunisia and Egypt to continue to spread across the Middle East. One hopes that other Arab nations will help Libya recover from Gaddafi and do what is right for the Libyans and for their own people. One also hopes that the strikes will level the playing field enough for the rebels to overthrow Gaddafi and bring him to justice.  So analysts in the Middle East believe that this will be the case. Al Jazeera reports that “Faysal Itani, deputy head of Middle East and North Africa forecasting at Exclusive Analysis tells Reuters that Gaddafi’s use of heavy weaponry against civilians has narrows his options considerably. He says: The doors are really shut for negotiation …  We think Gaddafi will be killed, or commit suicide or simply run away. It’s over.”

Of course one never knows. Gaddafi has stated that he has issued a cease fire but witnesses in Misrata which has been under heavy attack for the past week state that Gaddafi’s forces are still waging a campaign against civilians in that city. Likewise as Nicholas Burns a former United States Undersecretary of State notes that “one of the gambles that Britain, France and the United States, and indeed the Arab League, have taken is not having an agreement on what the mission is. Is the coalition trying to protect civilians in harm’s way, or in essence trying to overthrow Gaddafi? The coalition has intervened in a civil war on behalf of one of the protagonists. They have got to straighten out exactly what they are trying to accomplish.”

That is a big question mark. The real danger in this kind of unscripted intervention is the unforeseen consequences of each action taken. Even an action undertaken with the noblest of reasons can run afoul of unforeseen and undesirable outcomes. Thus only time will tell and we can only hope that freedom comes to Libya and that the bloodshed will end, hopefully with the Gaddafi regime thrown upon the ash heap of history by the Libyan people.

The die has been cast….

Peace

Padre Steve+

 

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March 11, 2011 · 00:29

Gaddafi Taunts the West and Kills his People: Our inaction speaks so loud he can’t hear a Word that we are Saying

Back when I was a sophomore in high school I played my one and one season of organized tackle football. I wasn’t very good and after seven weeks of not getting to play in a game, the last of which was a blowout where everyone got into the game but me I went to the coaches’ office in a rage. I confronted Coach Duke Pasquini demanding to know why I didn’t get in the game and he simply said “I can’t hear you.” So I complained louder and he repeated what he had said. That angered me so I was screaming and he finally said “your actions speak so loud I can’t hear a word you are saying.” I was dumbfounded as he told me that the reason that I wasn’t playing was that I my words didn’t match my play during practice.  It wasn’t until I took my anger out on the practice field and pushed harder than I ever thought possible that I got to play. Coach Pasquini taught me a valuable lesson with a lot of application for Western Leaders including President Obama.

That lesson is not to make pronouncements that you are not willing to back up with force. Unfortunately over the past two weeks statements by Western leaders as well as their actions of freezing assets and investigating the Gaddafi’s for war crime charges has emboldened the rebels and hardened the resolve of Gaddafi and his family.  In a nearly euphoric advance the rebels advanced to areas that they could not control if Gaddafi offered real resistance. Likewise when Gaddafi realized that the West was divided and unlikely to take action be it a no-fly zone or any assistance to the rebels he began an offensive that has devastated cities that the rebels had controlled and caused grievous casualties to civilians.  Gaddafi’s son Saif al Islam Gaddafi promised that the regime was coming after the rebels even the eastern part of the country using ground forces and air power.  He knows that he has a free hand until NATO and the Arab League or African Union decide to act even without a UN mandate as NATO did in Bosnia and Kosovo or the United States did in Iraq. He is openly taunting the United States, NATO and the international community and reveling in it. He has called our bluff.

The tide has turned against the rebels and in a war of attrition they cannot win unless the Libyan military switches sides, which does not seem likely in the light of international dithering.  The Libyan military after a period of wavering and defections appear to have fallen in line with Gaddafi even if they despise him.  Since that is the case Gaddafi now has the upper hand and unless Western Leaders, including President Obama back up their words the rebellion will be crushed a humanitarian catastrophe unleashed and a brutal dictator validated.

Now it is true that the United States above all nations must act with prudence because of our Iraq and Afghanistan adventures which have made the Administration shy away from any more military actions in the Muslim World. In fact we are overcommitted everywhere and there is a good reason militarily and politically not to go in.  That reason is simply that many radicals in the Islamic World will use it against us in a propaganda campaign and that is exactly how Gaddafi is already portraying the situation. Of course an air campaign which would begin with a no-fly zone should one be authorized would likely end up in bombing Libyan air defense installations and bring about what Gaddafi rightly calls a war. As a result the administration has for now decided not to act and to wait for the Europeans and the United Nations to take the lead. That inaction has emboldened Gaddafi and that inaction will turn Libya into a more important conflict than we ever wanted it to be.

If we do nothing after making a big show of calling Gaddafi a war criminal, freezing his assets and boldly stating that he has to go and the revolt fails then we will be seen by the same people that would condemn military action as weak.  This result would embolden tyrants and give our real enemies, Al Qaeda and Iran new life. Al Qaeda had been frozen out of the revolutions to this point but when those dying for freedom realize that we are all talk they will turn to the radical side to overthrow despotic regimes and when those regimes fall those that take power will not be our friends.

While doing something is fraught with peril the cost of inaction is worse and we could lose every Arab Ally that we have had for decades in a very short time. It will mean astronomical oil prices and collapse economies already weakened by the world wide banking and real estate crises. Israel will then be in the middle of a potential regional war because anti-western zealots will certainly carry their crusade against the Jewish state. There will be no more cold peace between the Arabs and Israel.

At least in the absence of US or NATO action French President Nicholas Sarkozy has recognized the provisional rebel government and is setting up an embassy in Benghazi and suggesting air strikes. British Prime Minister David Cameron is also pushing for action. The possibility is that some parts of the international community will take action but that is not certain. There are reports that the Libyan Provisional council is in clandestine talks with the United States.  If so that would be a start.

The reality is that this situation will not end well no matter what course of action is taken. The fact is that no matter which course the situation in Libya takes is that it is likely to spiral into a regional war with terrible consequences for everyone.  Americans will feel the pain of this in a big way when the oil prices go through the roof and the economy tanks.

Yes, our actions speak so loud that Gaddafi and the world can’t hear a word that we are saying.

God help us.

Peace

Padre Steve+

 

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February 22, 2011 · 19:53

Göttdammerung in Libya: Shades of Hitler as Gaddafi Promises to Die as a Martyr

“Muammar Gaddafi is not the president, he is the leader of the revolution. He has nothing to lose. Revolution means sacrifice until the very end of your life”

“I am a fighter, a revolutionary from tents … I will die as a martyr at the end… I have not yet ordered the use of force, not yet ordered one bullet to be fired … when i do, everything will burn.”

Muammar Gaddafi on Libyan State TV 22 February 2011


Libya’s brutal dictator of over 40 years Muammar Gaddafi has cast the die in favor of destroying his country in order to save his regime. In a speech that conjures up visions of Hitler in 1945 a rambling madman blaming external enemies and equating him with the nation while demonizing his own people who have risen up in revolt against him.

Gaddafi Speech

http://english.aljazeera.net/news/africa/2011/02/201122216458913596.html

The speech was surreal as it was translated with Gaddafi standing in the remains of his home that was bombed by the United States in 1986.  Alone at a podium without the usual crowd of adoring sycophants delivered a rambling narcissistic speech that bordered on the absurd while at the same time making credible threats against the protestors and anyone who opposes him which were already being backed up by Mercenaries and pro-Gaddafi thugs using heavy weapons and helicopter gunships. So far at least 300 people have been killed with unconfirmed reports that many more have died in opposing Gaddafi.  With the eastern part of the country now in rebel hands with the support of military units it remains to be seen how Gaddafi sends his loyalists and mercenaries against the still fragile control of his opponents.

His speech appeared to be devoid of reality when he stated that “I haven’t even started giving the orders to use bullets” but then said that “any use of force against authority of state will be sentenced to death”

He has promised harsh retribution and made a very pointed reference to the Chinese suppression of the 1990 Tiananmen Square protests promising to “fight to the last drop of blood” stating:

“When Tiananmen Square happened, tanks were sent in to deal with them. It’s not a joke. Do whatever it takes to stay united… People in front of tanks were crushed. The unity of China is more important than those people in Tiananmen Square.”

His remarks about his opponents were even more macabre and almost seemed to be snatched out of the Bizzaro World of delusions and contradictions. Some of those comments are

“They are a group that are sick, taking hallucinatory drugs… They were given drugs, like in Tunisia, are just imitating… We won’t lose victory from these greasy rats and cats…. They should be given a lesson and stop taking drugs. They’re not good for you, for your heart. Don’t destroy the country… Shame on you, you gangsters. Surrender, give up all weapons, or they’ll have massacres, drugged kids with machine guns… tonight and tomorrow, youth, all of you, not those who are rats on drugs–form committees for security.”

Speaking of the protestors he claimed that “They are just imitating Egypt and Tunisia” and that they “want to turn Libya into an Islamic state” even going so far as the say “They are turning Libya into an (Islamic) emirate of Zawahri and Bin Laden, a new Afghanistan.”

His megalomania and narcissism was on display as he spoke of Libya’s newfound prominence in the news “Libya wants glory, Libya wants to be at the pinnacle, at the pinnacle of the world.”

Gaddafi cajoled his supporters into taking action against his opponents in a display of self adulation by speaking of himself in the third person:

“If you love Muammar Gaddafi you will go out and secure Libya’s streets”

“You men and women who love Gaddafi …get out of your homes and fill the streets,” he said. “Leave your homes and attack them in their lairs … Starting tomorrow the cordons will be lifted, go out and fight them.”

“If weapons are not handed over… we will announce the holy march, I will call on millions from one desert to another to cleanse Libya house by house…”

Göttdammerung on the Streets of Tripoli (ABC News)

This is a tremendously dangerous situation for the Middle East as well as the world economy.  If this escalates into a full blown civil war between Gaddafi’s tribe and its dwindling number of allies and the other Libyan tribes that Gaddafi has previously been able to rely on to secure his power there could be great destruction in Libya.  It is believed that many of the larger tribes are now supporting Gaddafi’s overthrow even tribes that are historic rivals in tribal politics. Even more than the military, tribal support is of the utmost importance in the success of any revolt against him.

Libya at one time had WMD and it cannot be ruled out that Gaddafi has not clandestinely acquired some types of chemical agents which could be used against his own people. Additionally Libyan agents loyal to Gaddafi could undertake terrorist attacks on countries that he believes are against him as well as Libyan dissidents abroad. Other anti-Western regimes in the region and the world have much to fear as what happens in Libya could happen in them, the Syrians and Iranians have to be watching this with concern as well as their South American ally Hugo Chavez.

All of this impacts the world in many ways particularly in the oil and natural gas prices but also a direct financial impact in Africa where Libya has supplied funding that supports a number of critical African nations.  The east where the protestors have taken control is the home of much of its oil production which oil workers have promised to curtail if Gaddafi continues his attacks on the Libyan people. Robert Baer in Time Magazine http://www.time.com/time/world/article/0,8599,2052961,00.html reports that Gaddafi has stated that he knows that “he knows he cannot retake Libya with the forces he has. But what he can do is make the rebellious tribes and army officers regret their disloyalty, turning Libya into another Somalia.” He quotes a source that quotes Gaddafi as saying “I have the money and arms to fight for a long time.”  Of the measures Baer’s source reports is that “Gaddafi has ordered security services to start sabotaging oil facilities. They will start by blowing up several oil pipelines, cutting off flow to Mediterranean ports.”  One can only imagine the chaos that this would sow in the country, the region and in the oil markets.

As the flames of protest and revolution gain intensity throughout the region it is important to realize that things will not go back to what they were. We are facing one of the most dangerous situations with a myriad of possible outcomes many of which will bring about more instability, possible terrorism and maybe a regional war or series of wars. Russian Federation President Dmitry Medvedev commented on the situation saying that “this will mean fires for years and the spread of extremism in the future. We need to look this straight in the eyes.”

In the midst of Gaddafi’s macabre Göttdammerung the flames or protest, revolution and possibly even freedom continue to spread and no one knows what country that they will ignite next. Somehow I do not think that this will remain an isolated Middle Eastern phenomenon but will spread. I believe that many nations where peoples are repressed, poverty stricken or feel alienated from their governments will see such movements with very unpredictable consequences. This is beginning to shape up like the post World War One period of the breakup of empires, the post colonial chaos and the fall of the Iron Curtain coupled with a world-wide economic crisis that has the world teetering on the brink of a financial crisis on the order of the Great Depression all wrapped into one.

My we live in interesting times.

Peace

Padre Steve+

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February 21, 2011 · 23:59

To the Shores of Tripoli: The Flames of Revolution Spread to Libya as Gaddafi Fights Back

Muammar Gaddafi: A Fight to the Finish

The regime of Colonel Muammar Gaddafi is now in a fight to the death against the Libyan people in the streets of the capitol Tripoli.  In the eastern part of the country it appears that the revolutionaries have gained control of major cities including Libya’s second largest city Benghazi.

Gaddafi has ruled his own country with brutal force and exported terrorism throughout the Middle East and Europe for decades. When I served in Germany during the Cold War it was Libyan agents that attacked American servicemen and women and blew up Pan Am Flight 103 over Lockerbie Scotland.

Saif El Islam Gaddafi: Civil War

The Gaddafi regime has turned to brutal force to attempt to curb demonstrations that began in the wake of the successful Tunisian and Egyptian revolts that overthrew Ben Ali in Tunisia and Hosni Mubarak in Egypt. Gaddafi is a ruthless animal when it comes to his readiness to violently crush any dissent against his regime and has not hesitated to use political assassination on Libyan dissidents abroad.  However he is survivor who knows how to use money and oil to get his way with governments. He has occasionally reached out to appear in a more moderate and reasonable persona such as when he gave up his Weapons of Mass Destruction to the Americans and British in 2004 and when he paid 271 million dollars to the victims of the Lockerbie attack.

 

Libya is different than Tunisia, Egypt and Bahrain. The rulers of those countries, Ben Ali in Tunisia and Mubarak in Egypt while dictators they were not psychopaths and ceded power peacefully. Likewise the Bahraini leaders have backed down to opt for negotiations over the heavy handed force that they employed last week. Gaddafi has long viewed himself as the leader of the Arab World and Africa although his stock has fallen in recent years. He will not go peacefully.  His son Saif El Islam a Western Educated Ph.D. went on state television last night and predicted thousands would be killed in a prolonged civil war and said that “Libya is at a crossroads. If we do not agree today on reforms, we will not be mourning 84 people, but thousands of deaths, and rivers of blood will run through Libya…” He further said “We will take up arms… we will fight to the last bullet… We will destroy seditious elements. If everybody is armed, it is civil war, we will kill each other.”

Saif’s threats are being taken seriously. Since the protests broke out Gaddafi’s security forces have launched vicious attacks on protests and even the funerals of those killed. Using heavy weapons, aircraft and helicopter gunships Gaddafi has turned dogs of war against his people, reportedly using mercenaries from other nations to do what native Libyan soldiers and airmen will not do.

Protesters are being joined in some places by Libyan soldiers and elsewhere two Libyan Air Force Colonels defected with their fully armed Mirage F-1 fighter aircraft to Malta stating that they refused to fire on their countrymen. Around the world Libyan diplomats are condemning the regime and even in the country the Justice Minister and many judges in Benghazi have joined the protests. Other reports suggest that Libyan Border Guards and Coastguard personnel have left their posts along the Egyptian frontier. Libya’s Deputy Ambassador to the United Nations Ibrahim Dabbashi, Libya’s told reporters on Monday that Libyan leader Moammar Gadhafi has “declared war on the Libyan people and is committing genocide.”

Protests in the city of Tobruk (Reuters Photo)

The situation is escalating. On Tuesday the United Nations Security Council will meet for the first time to discuss the issue. Some have suggested that the Security Council impose a no-fly zone over Libyan airspace to keep Gaddafi from flying in more foreign mercenaries or use his air force against the protesters.

What is certain is that blood will continue to flow and that if Gaddafi goes down he and his sycophants will kill as many of their own people as they can.  The most interesting thing about this whole situation is that if Gaddafi falls it will be the first time an anti-Western or American regime has fallen signifying that the flames of protest and revolution are much more about overthrowing despots and bringing the people some measure of freedom than anything else. The situation is dangerous, fraught with peril and fluid but it could be the start of a change in the Middle East that takes the wind out of the sails of Al Qaeda and other terrorists groups who draw their support from those repressed by dictators.

It shall be interesting to see how this continues to develop. Pray for the people of Libya.

Peace

Padre Steve+

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