Tag Archives: mohamed el baradei

February 11, 2011 · 00:15

Egypt: As Mysterious as the Sphinx and as Dangerous as a Cobra….What Next?

Hosni Mubarak delivers his speech (AFP Photo via Yahoo News)

Today after hours of speculation fueled by senior Egyptian Army officers demonstrators in Tahrir Square believed that Hosni Mubarak was about to leave office. The Army High command convened without Mubarak present and issued statement which said:

“In the name of God, Statement No 1, issued by the Higher Council of the Armed Forces, stemming from the armed forces’ responsibility and committing to the protection of the people, safeguarding their interest and security, and keen on the safety of the homeland, the citizens and the achievements of the great Egyptian people, and asserting the legitimate rights of the people, the Higher Council of the Armed Forces convened today, Thursday 10 February 2011, to deliberate on the latest developments of the situation and decided to remain in continuous session to discuss what measures and arrangements could be taken to safeguard the homeland and its achievements, and the aspirations of the great Egyptian people. Peace, mercy and the blessings of God.”

The Army with the Protesters in Tahrir Square (Reuters Photo via Yahoo News)

It appeared that the Army was forcing Mubarak’s hand as earlier in the day General Hassan al-Roweni, an Egyptian army commander went to Tahrir Square and told protesters in the square that “everything you want will be realized.”

It was announced that Mubarak would address the nation in the evening and other reports indicated that he would step down.  Mubarak announced his intention to remain as President while handing over the some responsibilities to Vice President Omar Sulleimen.  His tone was defiant although he said that he is “totally committed to fulfilling all the promises” that he has earlier made regarding constitutional and political reform. Both Mubarak and Sulleiman addressed the crowd saying that they understood them and promised justice for those martyred.  After the initial shock wore off the demonstrators began to shake their shoes a sign of disrespect and some broke away from the main demonstration heading in the direction of the Presidential Palace. The Egyptian Ambassador to the United States Sameh Shoukry said “The vice president is the de facto president.”

Protesters wave their shoes at Mubarak (AFP Photo via Yahoo News)

None of this has swayed the demonstrators and the expectation is that even larger demonstrations will occur tomorrow.  Some believe that Mubarak is baiting the protestors hoping that they will become violent so he has reason to use massive force against them. The Vice President is also in charge of the Interior Ministry which controls the Police, the Secret Police and a vast network of paid informants with an estimated one million men at his disposal. Mohammed El Baradei tweeted “Egypt will explode. Army must save the country now.”  Despite their chants for Mubarak to “go” the other chant was “peace.” It does not appear that the protesters will resort to violence with the mood still upbeat.

The question mark is still the Army which appears to have been blindsided by Mubarak’s announcement. Unlike those under Sulleiman’s command the Army contains large numbers of young people who likely have very similar sentiments to the protestors. I am sure that the Army High Command understands that fact.  It is very possible that the Army is at loggerheads with Mubarak and Sulleiman.

Tomorrow will be critical.  We do not know what will happen. As mysterious as the Sphinx itself the situation in Egypt remains a mystery to many observers.  Will the Army take control? Will it stand by and do nothing? Will the Police take action? Will a civil war break out between the Army and the Interior Ministry forces?

We don’t know. However one thing can be certain if there is a crackdown on the demonstrators, which decapitates the movement the only benefits the Moslem Brotherhood which has been conspicuously absent from the demonstration and would be poised to take over leadership of the revolution should the Mubarak-Sulleiman government fall quickly.  I do not expect the Army to lead any such crackdown but it is conceivable that the same thugs who attacked last week could do so again.

This was a very dangerous situation. I pray that the end will be peaceful.

Peace

Padre Steve+

 

4 Comments

Filed under Foreign Policy, national security

Tagged as , , , , , , , ,

January 31, 2011 · 00:00

Walk Like an Egyptian: The Egyptian Revolution and the Radicalization of the Middle East

Egyptian Protesters with Army Soldiers (AFP Photo)

As Egypt goes so goes the Arab World. Egypt is the leader of the Arab World, the largest country and the country with the most powerful military, a developing educated class and one of the most strategically located countries in the world. Much of the world’s shipping passes the Suez Canal and the Egyptian peace treaty with Israel and cooperation with Israel on security issues has resulted in the most secure parts of the Middle East for decades.  The United States and the West count Egypt is their key ally in the Arab World but now the world trembles at the revolution going on in Egypt because of the uncertain and potentially destabilizing potential in the Middle East and the world.

Mohamed El Baradei (AFP Photo)

Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak had ruled Egypt under emergency conditions since the assassination of President Anwar Sadat in 1981 by military members loyal to the Muslim Brotherhood.  Mubarak has continued Sadat’s policies and been a strong ally of the United States and frequently has mediated for Israel in the Arab World.  He has been a stabilizing influence in the Middle East but has ruled as a dictator for all practical purposes since.  Mubarak dissolved his government and appointed a Vice President for the first time during his rule. He has steadfastly refused to step down.

Protesters (AFP Photo)

Conditions in Egypt include extremely high unemployment, poverty and social services which are insufficient at best and in many locations non-existent. Discontent has been simmering for years with Egyptian Police and internal security forces keeping a tight lid on dissent. The military however is the most trusted and respected institution in Egypt as it has kept a distance between it and internal security matters. The Police on the other hand are viewed as corrupt and brutal.

Matters have blown up in ways that few anticipated in the past week and it all began in Tunisia, a country on the fringe of the Arab World. Within a week of a popular overthrow of their President the flames of change were rolling across the Arab World, Yemen, Jordan and Egypt. Popular uprisings in key Arab countries led in many cases by educated pro-Western moderate professionals using social media such as Facebook and Twitter.

As of now we are unsure of exactly what will happen. However Egypt is the key. The protests now have an internationally respected leader, the Nobel Laureate former head of the United Nations Nuclear Inspection agency Mohamed El Baradei.  El Baradei has called on the United States to support the Egyptian people and says that he has the mandate to form a national unity government and reached out to the Egyptian military which is important for the stability and security of any new government.

The demonstrations have grown in intensity and the Army had taken the place of the police on the streets to the cheers of demonstrators.  While this is happening there is a surge of looting and vandalism and individuals as well as communities are taking their security on themselves with no police on the streets to do so.

With the situation on the ground continuing to get worse the United States will have to act in support of the protestors or see its influence in whatever kind of government and with the Egyptian people dissipate.  The best outcome would be an orderly transition of power to some kind of national unity government headed by pro-Western leaders such as El Baradei.  Unless such a transition takes place the chances of the uprising to become radicalized under the domination of the long suppressed Muslim Brotherhood is a real possibility.  The key right now is the Egyptian military, respected at home and trusted it is closely linked to the United States in many ways.

We do not know how this will end and chances of it ending badly are as great as or greater than in 1979 when the Islamic Revolution overthrew the Shah of Iran and the subsequent moderate government. At least there is no Khomeini like figure ready to seize the moment and lead the country into an Iranian style revolution.  The Muslim Brotherhood has been under wraps for many years and though a fundamentalist movement is populated with professional people and not clerics and it publically renounced violence years ago. One can only hope that El Baradei and the military can lead the Egypt on a democratic and peaceful course and that Hosni Mubarak will ensure that the transition is peaceful.

Lord help us all.

Peace,

Padre Steve+

 

1 Comment

Filed under Foreign Policy, national security

Tagged as , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,