The Newtron bomb exploded and irradiated the long presumed GOP nominee Mitt Romney and sent the Republican establishment into shock. Gingrich was left for dead after New Hampshire and Iowa after being savaged by Romney backed Super-PACs. Instead after hard hitting campaign ads attacking Romney and two strong debate performances he won the South Carolina Republican primary. It was stunning. Last Saturday Romney’s Super-PAC released an ad that boldly proclaimed “On Saturday, South Carolina picks a President.” If it did it wasn’t Romney.
Hubris
He was aided by Romney’s hubris and inability to answer questions about his income, his taxes and his career at Bain Capital without looking like an entitled and out of touch rich politician. Romney’s post primary debate made him look worse. He tried to still project the image of the front-runner and standard bearer that can beat Barak Obama. Romney basically said that for anyone to criticize him or his personal success was to be against success and capitalism. His speech seemed devoid of understanding that the combination of his own communicative ineptitude and Gingrich’s appeal to raw populism have damaged him. Likewise his inability to be magnanimous in defeat to either Gingrich or Santorum after their wins in Iowa and South Carolina make him even less attractive to much of the electorate. Otto Von Bismarck said that the “three signs of great men are generosity in the design, humanity in the execution, moderation in success.” Well that does not describe what many feel about Mitt Romney after South Carolina.
Romney spent more money in the state than any other candidate, had the support of Tea Party backed Governor Nikki Haley and other key South Carolina Republicans including Senator Jim DeMint.
Gingrich won 40% of the vote in South Carolina and won nearly every demographic. The allegations of his second wife Marianne about his infidelity and desire for an “open marriage” had little if no effect on an electorate dominated by Evangelical Christians. The only significant demographic to go for Romney was that of people that made over $200,000 a year. (see Fox News Exit Poll http://www.foxnews.com/politics/elections/2012/south-carolina-primary-jan-21/exit-polls )
The turnout was significant, nearly a third more people voted in the primary than in 2008. I attribute this to the activism of the Tea Party as well as Ron Paul’s campaign, both of which pack significant energy. Paul finished 4th tonight but had far more of the electorate than he had in 2008.
Gingrich is not well liked. His negatives are incredible but he can fight and with the money that is now coming in to support his Super-PAC he is going to make Florida a real race unless he does something to implode. This is a big reason that Rick Santorum will remain in the race.
Florida will be important. I do think that Gingrich will make it close and maybe even win. I think that he wins the Tea Party faction and will make a good run at the Cuban vote. If Gingrich wins big it could send party elites into a panic. To them Newt is the Neutron Bomb, he is radioactive and and dangerous. They do not want him as their nominee and they will do whatever they can to stop his momentum.
But even if Romney can right the ship in Florida the fact is that this race will continue to go on into the spring and that bodes ill for him. I think that this will be difficult. Florida has hit the skids economically and that impacts Republican voters as much as it does others and a Romney that seems to be out of touch and flouting his wealth will not go over well with In South Carolina a third of Gingrich supporters polled say that they will not support Romney if he becomes the nominee and the figure among Paul supporters is higher. Mark my words, Tea Party and Ron Paul activists will not go all in for Romney if he is the nominee.
Right now as unimaginable as it would have ever been Romney is in real danger and he does not seem to be fully aware of it. Like Captain Schettino of the Costa Concordia he and his campaign are too close to running aground and still seem to believe that no matter what they will be the nominee. South Carolina shows that his electability is in question. Why would the Tea Party and Libertarian factions want Romney in office for 8 years should he be the nominee and win against President Obama?
These candidates do not like each other and the loathing of Gingrich for Romney and Romney for Gingrich is palpable. The campaign will be dirty and unsurpassed in nastiness.
This will be a fascinating race to watch and may be historic in terms of its effect on the conservative movement and the Republican Party.
How Romney and the GOP elites must be feeling about South Carolina
It will be fun to watch if nothing else.
Peace
Padre Steve+
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