Tag Archives: romney super pac

January 21, 2012 · 23:59

The Newtron Bomb Blasts Romney

The Newtron bomb exploded and irradiated the long presumed GOP nominee Mitt Romney and sent the Republican establishment into shock. Gingrich was left for dead after New Hampshire and Iowa after being savaged by Romney backed Super-PACs. Instead after hard hitting campaign ads attacking Romney and two strong debate performances he won the South Carolina Republican primary. It was stunning. Last Saturday Romney’s Super-PAC released an ad that boldly proclaimed “On Saturday, South Carolina picks a President.” If it did it wasn’t Romney.

Hubris

He was aided by Romney’s hubris and inability to answer questions about his income, his taxes and his career at Bain Capital without looking like an entitled and out of touch rich politician. Romney’s post primary debate made him look worse. He tried to still project the image of the front-runner and standard bearer that can beat Barak Obama.  Romney basically said that for  anyone to criticize him or his personal success was to be against success and capitalism. His speech seemed devoid of understanding that the combination of his own communicative ineptitude and Gingrich’s appeal to raw populism have damaged him. Likewise his inability to be magnanimous in defeat to either Gingrich or Santorum after their wins in Iowa and South Carolina make him even less attractive to much of the electorate. Otto Von Bismarck said that the “three signs of great men are generosity in the design, humanity in the execution, moderation in success.”  Well that does not describe what many feel about Mitt Romney after South Carolina.

Romney spent more money in the state than any other candidate, had the support of Tea Party backed Governor Nikki Haley and other key South Carolina Republicans including Senator Jim DeMint.

Gingrich won 40% of the vote in South Carolina and won nearly every demographic. The allegations of his second wife Marianne about his infidelity and desire for an “open marriage” had little if no effect on an electorate dominated by Evangelical Christians. The only significant demographic to go for Romney was that of people that made over $200,000 a year.  (see Fox News Exit Poll http://www.foxnews.com/politics/elections/2012/south-carolina-primary-jan-21/exit-polls )

The turnout was significant, nearly a third more people voted in the primary than in 2008. I attribute this to the activism of the Tea Party as well as Ron Paul’s campaign, both of which pack significant energy. Paul finished 4th tonight but had far more of the electorate than he had in 2008.

Gingrich is not well liked. His negatives are incredible but he can fight and with the money that is now coming in to support his Super-PAC he is going to make Florida a real race unless he does something to implode.  This is a big reason that Rick Santorum will remain in the race.

Florida will be important. I do think that Gingrich will make it close and maybe even win.  I think that he wins the Tea Party faction and will make a good run at the Cuban vote. If Gingrich wins big it could send party elites into a panic.  To them Newt is the Neutron Bomb, he is radioactive and and dangerous.  They do not want him as their nominee and they will do whatever they can to stop his momentum.

But even if Romney can right the ship in Florida the fact is that this race will continue to go on into the spring and that bodes ill for him. I think that this will be difficult. Florida has hit the skids economically and that impacts Republican voters as much as it does others and a Romney that seems to be out of touch and flouting his wealth will not go over well with In South Carolina a third of Gingrich supporters polled say that they will not support Romney if he becomes the nominee and the figure among Paul supporters is higher.  Mark my words, Tea Party and Ron Paul activists will not go all in for Romney if he is the nominee.

Right now as unimaginable as it would have ever been Romney is in real danger and he does not seem to be fully aware of it.  Like Captain Schettino of the Costa Concordia he and his campaign are too close to running aground and still seem to believe that no matter what they will be the nominee. South Carolina shows that his electability is in question. Why would the Tea Party and Libertarian factions want Romney in office for 8 years should he be the nominee and win against President Obama?

These candidates do not like each other and the loathing of Gingrich for Romney and Romney for Gingrich is palpable. The campaign will be dirty and unsurpassed in nastiness.

This will be a fascinating race to watch and may be historic in terms of its effect on the conservative movement and the Republican Party.

How Romney and the GOP elites must be feeling about South Carolina 

It will be fun to watch if nothing else.

Peace

Padre Steve+

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January 19, 2012 · 23:57

Republican Versus Republican: The South Carolina Showdown

 

Charleston Debate (CNN Photo)

The Republican campaign for the nomination is getting nasty.  These men do not like each other and for one man in particular, former Speaker of the House Newt Gingrich the battle is personal. Campaign ads, particularly those run by the various Super-PACS have been brutal on all sides because they have all mixed truth and fiction and quite often impugned the character of their opponents in addition to attacking policy differences.

The fact that our political climate is so volatile and filled with passion and emotion mean that the campaign will become filled with even more vitriol.  This week two more Republicans dropped out of the race after pledging in New Hampshire to see it through. John Huntsman dropped out followed unexpectedly today by Texas Governor by Rick Perry.  Neither had the support to do much in South Carolina nor the finances to go on. Huntsman endorsed Romney while Perry, Michelle Bachman and Sarah Palin have  all endorsed Gingrich which was probably more important.

Perry saw the writing on the wall when a sizable number of Evangelicals and conservative Catholics through their support behind for Pennsylvania Senator Rick Santorum who was certified as the winner of the Iowa Caucus after Governor Romney and the media declared Romney the winner.  Romney “won” by 8 votes with a total number less than he received in the same state in 2008.  However when Santorum was certified as the winner by 34 votes Republican Party officials in the state called it a draw with no clear winner.  So if Romney wins by 8 votes it is a “win” but if Santorum wins by 34 votes it is a “tie.”  Romney called his wins “historic” history has been revised.  I thought that Romney made a huge mistake when he made the claim and now he looks foolish for doing so.

Since New Hampshire the three factions of the Republican Party have fractured. Romney was anointed by the party elite as the “one that could beat Obama.” However after New Hampshire the fissures in the party between the Republican establishment represented by Romney, social conservatives championed by Gingrich and Santorum and Libertarians led by Ron Paul have opened wide. All claim that getting rid of Obama is the main priority but their personal dislike of the candidates for one another and their sometimes competing agendas have led to a deepening divide in the party.

Gingrich seems to have survived comments by his second wife regarding their divorce and his alleged desire to remain married by have an “open marriage” with the support of major hitters like Rush Limbaugh.  When asked about it by debate moderator John King Gingrich blasted King and attacked the media in an incredibly effective manner that ended the line of questioning.  Gingrich knew that the question would be asked and clobbered it like a power hitter slamming a hanging curve ball.

Romney didn’t make any great mistakes in the debate tonight but he muffed the question of releasing his tax returns in Monday’s debate on Fox News and tonight’s on CNN. He seems be unable to connect with people that don’t believe that over $300,000 in speaking fees is “not very much money.” It seems to me that he cannot connect with the populist parts of the Republican Party represented by the Tea Party. He is portrayed as a flip-flopper by conservatives and believe me there are many Evangelicals and others that will not support him or only give lukewarm support should he become the nominee because he is Mormon.  Frankly their trust of him deserved or not is only slightly better than the distrust that they have for President Obama.

I believe that Gingrich will win South Carolina and that both Santorum and Ron Paul will do better than expected. Santorum actually in my view handled the debate better and challenged Gingrich and Romney in ways that were effective and that I did not think him capable of sustaining. He could surprise especially with the endorsement of major Evangelicals but he is not a southerner and that counts for something in South Carolina.

From South Carolina the campaign goes to Florida and could continue throughout the spring as the factions of the party go all in for their candidates. It shall be interesting.

Peace

Padre Steve+

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January 3, 2012 · 23:59

Iowa Caucus: Media Feeding Frenzy Looking for the Un-Mormon Anti-Mitt

The votes are still being counted and with about 96% of the votes counted it will be a photo-finish between Mitt Romney and Rick Santorum with Ron Paul just a bit behind in third place. The race between Romney and Santorum  It is so close that at least one network is predicting that it may not be able to call the race until the last vote is counted.

Reporters, pundits and pollsters are trying to sort out what this means but the reality is that three quarters of Republicans in Iowa don’t want Mitt Romney as their nominee.  Romney has the money, organizations and old line GOP support to run the table if he wasn’t viewed as the member of a religious cult by half the GOP and as a out of touch rich Massachusetts flip-flopper without John Kerry’s medals.

The fact is that if you add the non-Ron Paul “Conservative Christians” Santorum, Gingrich, Perry and Bachmann together they come in at at about 53% of the total vote. This is important because Romney has to win in the South and Midwest where the conservative Evangelical and Catholic vote has to be won to win. That demographic favors whoever is the Un-Mormon Anti-Mitt.  Many of Romney’s “supporters” close to 40% have reservations about him.

What I really believe will happen is that the vote will be so close that Romney’s campaign will lose momentum no-matter how well he does in New Hampshire where as of today polls give him a commanding lead. The real test will be South Carolina where if Romney sputters despite the support of Governor Nikki Haley the race will go on for a long time.  I think that Romney probably will still win the nomination but he will be damaged goods.  Some Tea Party leaders say that they would never support Romney, influential Evangelical pastors saying that Romney is “not a Christian” while others call support for Romney an endorsement of the Church of Jesus Christ of Latter Day Saints, or the Mormons.

The scorched earth tactics of Romney’s Super PAC will not endear him to the supporters of some of his opponents. Newt Gingrich has called Romney a “liar” and as the campaign progresses the Romney campaign tactics will alienate more of the people that he needs to win in November. Romey’s PAC will turn its guns on Santorum and Gingrich will blast Romney in the next debate. It will get nasty.

The effect of Ron Paul and the Libertarian wing of the GOP cannot be underestimated, most Paul’s supporters would not support Romney.  Paul is well funded and will not go away and because many of the delegates won in the primaries are now awarded on a proportional basis if he hangs around he can collect enough of them to be the fly in Romney’s ointment at the GOP Convention.

I expect that Michelle Bachmann is not planning to end her campaign simply just yet but  her closing speech was as anti-Mitt as it was anti-Obama.  However her campaign is toast, even Sarah Palin has counted her out. Rick Perry is reassessing his campaign and going back to Texas.  But Newt Gingrich was not completely destroyed by Romney and will live to fight another day and will have an impact in the South where he will along with Santorum and Paul will bloody Romney significantly.  Gingrich’s closing speech tonight showed that he is going to go after Romney and pretty much leave Santorum alone.  Expect Bachmann and Perry to back Santorum if Gingrich falters.

Look to an unexpectedly long and interesting campaign for the GOP nomination. That is my take on Iowa.

Peace

Padre Steve+

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