Tag Archives: sun tzu

March 1, 2011 · 02:37

No Illusions: The Cost of the Long War and its Potential impact on the United States

Libya: One of Many unanticipated Crises

There has never been a protracted war from which a country has benefited. Sun Tzu

Don’t fight a battle if you don’t gain anything by winning. Erwin Rommel

The United States and its Allies have been at war for over 10 years and that war has worn us down. Even as we battle for minimal gains in Afghanistan while attempting to finish withdrawing from Iraq the costs of this war are now becoming evident to the most casual observer.

Over 5900 U.S. Military personnel have died in the Iraq and Afghanistan campaigns and over 40,000 wounded. Add to this over 2000 contractors, mostly foreign killed or died or wounds or illness and over 16,000 wounded while employed by firms contracted by the U.S. Government. This does not count Allied military personnel. Thousands more suffer from Traumatic Brain Injury or PTSD or moral injuries that impact their lives and those of their families’ years after serving and the necessary billions of dollars to pay for the medical and psychological wounds of war. Despite increases in funding and personnel the Veterans Administration has been overwhelmed by the numbers of discharged veterans requiring medical or psychological care.

The financial cost of the current wars is astronomical. The official cost is a trillion dollars since 2001 in excess of regular defense spending with Afghanistan costing over 190 million dollars a day. Military equipment including high end equipment such as aircraft are reaching the end of their service lives sooner that planned due to the high operations tempo and sustained combat operations in inhospitable climates. An ossified defense bureaucracy which Defense Secretary Robert Gates says had an “overwhelming tendency of our defense bureaucracy to focus on preparing for future high-end conflicts – priorities often based, ironically, on what transpired in the last century – as opposed to the messy fights in Iraq and Afghanistan,” and a military procurement system laden with pet projects pushed by legislators influenced by lobbyists from defense industries pushing the most expensive and often problem laden systems imaginable. Even those which eventually turn out to be great weapons come in way over budget and take far too long to go from the drawing board to the battlefield. Others turn out to be money pits which sometimes never enter production after years and sometimes decades of development.

Because of the national economic and financial crisis and huge national debts the military is being cut back even as the wars continue and more crises arise in critical regions.  Because of the commitments in Iraq and Afghanistan the United States is now lacking strategic and operational depth to react to new situations. We are fortunate that the ferry sent to rescue American citizens in Libya was not attacked while trapped in Tripoli harbor. The Marine Expeditionary Unit which would normally be at sea for contingency or humanitarian operations is engaged in Afghanistan and the Amphibious Group that supports it is operating east of the Suez.  Two Carrier Battle Groups are now required in the 5th Fleet Area of Operations putting additional strain on our ability to respond to other situations.

Defense Secretary Robert Gates

Very bluntly the long ground wars in Iraq and Afghanistan are taking away from our ability to respond if need be to situations in areas that are actually more important to us and the world in a strategic and economic way.  Secretary Gates knows how much these wars have weakened the military and the nation and in a speech to cadets at the United States Military warned his successors “Any future defense secretary who advises the president to again send a big American land army into Asia or into the Middle East or Africa should ‘have his head examined,’ as General [Douglas] MacArthur so delicately put it.”

The fact is that we are hamstrung by the ongoing wars which limit our ability to respond to rapidly changing situations. We are in a similar situation to the Germans in 1942 and 1943 overcommitted, overstretched and lacking true strategic depth to respond to unanticipated situations as are now occurring across the Middle East. In 1942 and 1943 the Germans were always just just short of the forces that would have turned the tide.

Gates said of our situation:

“We can’t know with absolute certainty what the future of warfare will hold, but we do know it will be exceedingly complex, unpredictable, and – as they say in the staff colleges – ‘unstructured’. Just think about the range of security challenges we face right now beyond Iraq and Afghanistan: terrorism and terrorists in search of weapons of mass destruction, Iran, North Korea, military modernization programs in Russia and China, failed and failing states, revolution in the Middle East, cyber, piracy, proliferation, natural and man-made disasters, and more.”

In September 1944 with the Western Front in ruins Field Marshal Gerd Von Rundstedt was appointed to command German forces in the West. After receiving a briefing from his staff about the situation a senior staff officer asked what they should do. Von Rundstedt reportedly said “Make peace, you fools.” I have placed a link to that incident from the film A Bridge too Far here.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ch56NAL1C-I

I’m not arguing for a precipitous withdraw that would leave an even more chaotic situation in Afghanistan but we have to decide what the end game is there and how we will adjust our strategy to meet reality.

The long war in Afghanistan and the war which we are leaving in Iraq have hurt us in the long run in many ways.  We have to ask hard questions about the war as to whether the continued sacrifices of the Marines, Soldiers, Sailors and Airmen that fight it and the impact on our ability to respond to other crises are something that we think are in our best interests as a nation. At least Secretary Gates is asking the hard questions.

It was Britain’s involvement on the European Continent during the First World War which impoverished her and doomed the Empire. Britain was traditionally a naval power that tried not to become involved on the Continent whenever possible. It is entirely possible that our long war in Afghanistan and Iraq will reduce us as an economic and military power and leave our interests around the world vulnerable just as the World Wars did to Britain.

Peace

Padre Steve+

 

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December 7, 2010 · 00:25

The Dangerous Ignorance of the Wiki-Leakers

The Zimmerman Telegram: Just One Cable with consequences still being felt today

“A prince must imitate the fox and the lion, for the lion cannot protect himself from traps, and the fox cannot defend himself from wolves. One must therefore be a fox to recognize traps, and a lion to frighten wolves. Those that wish to be only lions do not understand this. Therefore, a prudent ruler ought not to keep faith when by so doing it would be against his interest, and when the reasons which made him bind himself no longer exist. If men were all good, this precept would not be a good one; but as they are bad, and would not observe their faith with you, so you are not bound to keep faith with them.” Niccolo Machiavelli

In 1917 the British leaked a telegram from the German Foreign Minister to the President of Mexico. By 1916 the Germans were doing all that they could to keep the United States out of the war while the British looked for ways to assist the Americans into the war. The cat and mouse campaign continued until the Germans being starved by the British blockade realized that they had to resume unrestricted submarine warfare against Britain knowing that such a resumption might well provide the United States a reason to enter the war. The Germans approached the Mexican government with the offer of an alliance and the promise of the restoration of lands lost to the United States.  The Mexican government rejected the offer because as much as they desired the restoration of land that they believed to be rightfully theirs that the Germans could not deliver.  The British knew this but waited and when the moment was right released the decrypted cable to the American Press which much as it had done against the Spanish in 1898 provided the grist for the Congress to declare war in April 1917.  The involvement of the United States in that war made the United States a player on the world stage and was the catalyst for our involvement in  the Second World War and all that has followed.  Just one cable changed history.

Julian Assange, his companions and supporters are some of the most incredibly naïve people in the world.  I do not doubt for one minute that most of them are convinced of the innate righteousness that some ascribe to whistleblowers.  You see there are times that whistleblowers are absolutely necessary.  Unfortunately most self proclaimed “whistleblowers” lack the nuance to know what should be leaked and what shouldn’t, what matters and what doesn’t and the immense dangers inherent in revealing information that potentially could lead to the targeted death of innocents or even inciting whole populations to war.

Diplomacy is a most delicate Machiavellian art.  Diplomats representing the interests of the governments work in a world where there is little that is “black and white” but rather a world of murky grays where truth is mixed with deception, blunt honesty and candor with lies and subterfuge.  It is an art filled with nuance where the slightest misstep could and often has triggered wars of cataclysmic proportions. It is a world where diplomats, military attaches and even dare I say spies work to gain their nations advantages and if they do their job well such advantages are secured without war.

To do this the diplomatic corps of various nations, even nations that are each other’s mortal enemy understand that it is possible to smile, share a drink and converse as colleagues even while seeking an advantage. That advantage might be information regarding trade agreements, military alliances, or countless other subjects.  Diplomacy is a person playing chess game with one hand and a poker game with the other at the same time.  It is a dark world that most people are ignorant of and as Barbara Tuchman said: “Diplomacy means all the wicked devices of the Old World, spheres of influence, balances of power, secret treaties, triple alliances, and, during the interim period, appeasement of Fascism” and Randolph Bourne noted “Diplomacy is a disguised war, in which states seek to gain by barter and intrigue, by the cleverness of arts, the objectives which they would have to gain more clumsily by means of war.”

Diplomacy is truly a Machiavellian enterprise that is not for the faint of heart and good diplomats understand what Machiavelli said “And to be sure, sometimes you need to conceal a fact with words, do it in such a way that it does not become known, or, if it does become known, that you have a ready and quick defense.” Diplomats understand the hard truth that the ally of today may very well be the enemy of tomorrow and that it is unwise to have allies that you are ignorant about. Sun Tzu put it well “One who is not acquainted with the designs of his neighbors should not enter into alliances with them.”

Our Founding Fathers were not fond of alliances and warned against them, unfortunately that horse left the barn years and years ago and like our European ancestors we are now dependant on alliances, even with very unseemly characters nations because for better or worse they suit our security or economic geopolitical needs.  That is the way it is. We are unable to turn back the clock to more genial time.

Thus diplomats and their work matter and what they say and do in public and in secret needs to be guarded because the consequences of “transparency” are often worse than the maintaining of secrets. The latest documents leaked by Assange and Wiki Leaks have nothing to do with revealing anything that is the reason for whistle blowing which by definition is aimed at exposing wrongdoing or illegal activity by an organization or individuals with the hope of stopping it. In some cases Wiki Leaks has done this but the latest round of leaks appear to be more about embarrassing governments and leaders around the world with no real positive gain for society or for that matter world peace. Instead they have endangered many by exposing secrets that might result in brutal civil wars, regional wars or assist terrorist groups to destabilize democracies and kill innocents.  One of the documents listed all sites deemed by the United States vital to its national security as well as those of other nations practically giving terrorists a roadmap to kill and destabilize and even increase the economic crisis engulfing much of the world.  Since many are soft targets terrorists could and likely will use the information in ways that can be unimaginably bad.

When finally confronted by governments around the world Assange threatens to release 100,000 uncensored documents that they refer to as an “insurance policy” against being silenced. The documents are in the hands of thousands of Wiki Leaks supporter who only need the key to unlock them and spill the data with very unpredictable consequences depending on what is in the files. Who knows what if they were leaked to trap Assange and his followers?

Regardless the release of these most recent documents has exposed people in many nations, mostly innocents to grave danger all it seems to feed Assange’s massive ego.  Having had to deal with a decent number of his supporters recently I know that the general attributes of his followers are arrogance, self righteousness and naiveté which when combined together are really dangerous. However they don’t seem to care as I read a post by one of Assange’s followers someone named “sunnydee” who wrote on the “Above Top Secret” website: “Hope you’ll keep us posted. And hope that someone has the guts to open it. It’s best to know the truth, no matter how ugly.” This just shows the naïve and seemingly uncomprehending mentality of many of his supporters. I could be wrong but it doesn’t seem like Assange or his followers care about the lives that could be lost and the devastation that could ensue either due to war, terrorism or greater economic calamity.  Such actions do not promote democracy or open societies they destroy them.

It seems that unless something changes quickly that Assange and his followers could ignite a spark that engulfs whole regions of the world in war and open the door wider for terrorists to destabilize weak governments around the world.  Diplomats are smarter than a lot of people give them credit for and the diplomatic cables needed to be protected and Assange has opened Pandora’s Box.

This is a dangerous gambit that nothing good can come from. God help us.

Peace

Padre Steve+

 

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May 26, 2009 · 23:53

Life’s Tough…It’s Tougher When You’re Stupid- The Peril of Misusing Principles, Attributes and Quotations Out of Context

sgt striker

I am cursed with having been born with a logical and analytical mind.  As such it is a cross that I bear.  This may sound pompous and even arrogant but unfortunately it is true.  I am confronted every day with people, some of who that I love and adore who use principles and attributes badly and make themselves look foolish.  Sometimes even bordering on being stupid. Often this involves personal hurts where because of something that was said or done a person makes a quantum leap intol illogical absurdity.  For example, “My boss yelled at me thus my career is over.”  That may or may not be true but it is not a foregone conclusion.  Likewise something like this: “My friend did not call me back, they  must hate me.”   What is worse for hurt people is when they find a quote taken out of context and use it in an illogical manner.  I had a dear friend do this the other day.  I cannot break any confidence but I basically told my friend that if someone was wrong in something they said about my friend that my friend should tell them to go to hell.  I also told my friend that if what the other person was true then that he needed to deal with it and make whatever corrections necessary.

I find that the use of principles and attributes as a lazy way for people to try to look intelligent. A person who uses them in such manner as a way to prove a point neither understand the principles or attributes of what they think that they understand.  If physicians or scientists approached life in that manner we would be in big trouble. Yet we see it all the time in religion, popular philosophy, pop-psychology, popular leadership and management programs.

My friend made a comment on a social networking website regarding assumptions.  It was a bad use of a bad quote, probably taken out of context, unless the person quoted was an idiot, which after reading stuff about him I believe that he is.  The quote was by Don Miguel Ruiz and said: “The problem with making assumptions is that we believe they are the truth”   There is a big problem with this.  Good Old Don Mike is an idiot.  Assumptions are how logical people begin the process of discovery through inductive and deductive reasoning.  The problem with Don Mike is that he assumes that people who assume use assumptions in ignorance.  You see Don Miguel is a “spiritual” teacher, and as a spiritual man of course he operates above logic. He lives in the world of unreality and illogic, however it looks like he makes good money doing it.  Guys like this are actually dangerous because they say things that sound neat, but are absolutely idiotic.  Now can we make bad assumptions about ourselves or others? Definitely.  Crap I do it all the time, however that does not lessen the value of making and acting on assumptions.   If the assumption is wrong, you re-assess and move forward.  If someone makes an assumption about you which is wrong you don’t throw out the value of making informed decisions based on evidence and from that evidence making assumptions about how to proceed in the future. This can be in personal, financial, career, spiritual or any other dimension of life.  We all make assumptions about ourselves and others and based on those assumptions live our lives.

Let’s take this quote about assumptions.  Every month that we work we assume that we will get paid.  It is part of the deal. We sign a contract or have a set pay scale and pay days.  In the military we get paid on the 1st and the 15th of the month.  I assume that when I read my pay advisement that that money will be in my bank account on the date the advisement says that it will.  I operate on the assumption that I will be paid.  If I am unemployed and have run out of unemployment benefits this may not be so.  I should make the assumption that unless I get a job that I will not be able to buy my dog Milk Bones.  True, Molly would not be happy about this but I would be a fool to assume that I will have money.  This may happen. I may get a job or someone may help me out but I do not assume this to be the case.

One of the worst ways I see this is with religious people.  Some of my fellow Christians for whatever reason believe that somehow God owes them.  This of course comes from the “name it claim it, grab it stab it, God owes me because” heresy of the prosperity preachers.  Unfortunately this crass, insipid and idiotic “theology” is not based on the assumption that God cares about them.  It is however the presumption that because I did something that God is contractually bound to do it.  It assumes wrongly that the Bible, believe a particular doctrine, give my money to the church or a ministry, or pray a certain way that God is obligated to do things the way that I want.   This is an error of presumption as well as a theological heresy.  It “cherry picks” scripture, something called “proof texting.”  This is simply lifting the part of scripture that we like from its historical, cultural and theological context and arbitrarily determine that it means what we want it to mean. God loves us and cares for us but does not owe anyone anything.  The Deity Herself assures me of this.  The way I see it is that God is no respecter of persons, even me.  Thus, I cannot presume on God.

Moving back to the topic of the misuse of principles and attributes by those who presume to be intelligent or spiritual:  Principles and attributes have to be understood in context in order to be used correctly. Context includes the meaning of the writer or the person quoted. The context matters if we are to correctly interpret principles of life made by any individual.  The Enlightenment Philosophers and Theologians called is the “situation in life, or Sitz im Leben. Things do not occur in a vacuum and how people arrive at their conclusions is as much a part of their environment and experience as the end product.

We see this in a number of ways.  I love reading amateur historians, political or military pundits do this with the great military thinkers. I particularly get a kick out of people who quote Sun Tzu or Clausewitz out of context to make some point.  I see this often.  You can go to any bookstore and pick up a book of quotes or principles derived from some philosopher, theologian, military, business or political leader.  They are usually entitled something like this: The Leadership Principles of __________. On occasion you might find a book of quotes, again usually out of context called ____________ Rules for Success in Life. Abe Lincoln and Winston Churchill are two of the most quoted in this manner. People love to do this with quotes of Jesus taken from the Gospels, of course who would argue with God incarnate.  The problem is that the quotes are usually taken out of context and not congruent with the basics of the Christian faith.  Even Scripture is abused in this manner.  This is not assumption, it is presumption.

I remember a book entitled The Attributes of God which I read back in college.  The problem with the book, from a Christian perspective, and the author was a Christian; was not that it’s assumptions about certain characteristics or attributes of God was wrong, it was the fact that God was approached through attributes rather than from the Cross.  One does not know God simply through studying his attributes.  If you are a Christian you know God through Christ who you know through the Cross, not just sayings of Jesus taken out of context.  A person is not the sum of their attributes.

The same is true with those who quote various philosophers, theologians, political or military leaders out of context.  People love to do this with Sun Tzu and Clausewitz.  I have lost count of the books I have seen published in recent years that do this.  To understand Clausewitz one has to understand the Enlightenment, Classic German Liberalism including the Philosophy of Kant, Hegel and Kierkegaard as well as the theology of theologians such as Scheilermacher.  Clausewitz properly understood is more than a political-military philosopher but a man who understands the human condition.  To reduce his work to cool quotes is to miss the point.  Since most people can’t spell or correctly pronounce “Scheilermacher” I am sure that they have not read him.  Same is true with Kant, Hegel and Kiekegaard. Without understanding this or Prussia’s defeat and and occupation by Napoleon’s Army and the subsequent recovery, one does not understand Clausewitz.  Clausewitz deals with the human condition as amuch as he deals with political and military philosophy.

Now of course I chose the historical, military and religious examples because that is my academic background.   However, to do this one uses all the facts that one has, analyzes them, evaluates them and uses deductive reasoning to determine the “truth” based on the facts on hand.  However we have to understand that we never have all the facts, and that even “facts” that we have might not withstand the test of time or further examination.  This is true in history and the sciences.   It also has some basis in faith, which is why I prefer the historic Anglican-Catholic triad of Scripture, Tradition and Reason versus a Scripture alone or Scripture and Tradition basis for faith.  Will I always be right? No, but I will use my errors to discover truth and not be content to remain in them.  To plan we make assumptions about the future.  Those assumptions must be tested as the situation develops.  In Medicine physicians when diagnosing a condition make a differential diagnosis.  It is a manner of testing our assumptions based on the facts on hand.  The military uses a planning process in which assumptions are tested.  Assumptions based on the evidence that we have are essential to planning for the future.  Again this goes for personal matters as well.  To quote MCDP-5 Planning, the Marine Corps Planning Process:

“the defining features of the planning challenge are uncertainty and time. More than anything else, considerations of time and uncertainty dictate our approach to planning. All planning is based on imperfect knowledge and involves assumptions about the future. All planning by definition is future-oriented, and the future by nature is uncertain. No matter how determined we are to be fully prepared for a situation, there are finite limits to our ability to plan for the future. The more certain the future is, the easier it is to plan.”

This is not easy, but making assumptions and planning for an uncertain future is far better than quoting people out of context to make it look like we have things figured out when we have never seriously studied them.  As Sergeant Striker (John Wayne) said in the Sands of Iwo Jima: “Life’s tough, it’s tougher when you’re stupid.”   Living life based on unstudied principles and attempting to determine the nature of someone by their attributes is not logical or rational.  We have to be careful.  This may not seem to be too spiritual but as Jesus said “Be as wise as serpents and gentle as doves.”  Or as a Trekkie might say: Be as crafty as a Romulan but peaceful as a Vulcan.

Peace,

Steve+

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