Tag Archives: tahrir square

Padre Steve’s Arab Spring Articles: Tahir Square to Sirte

It is hard to believe that Moammar Gaddafi is dead and that the people of Libya have thrown off the shackles of his tyrannical dictatorship which caused them and the world so much grief.  These are links and brief descriptions of the articles of this series.  There have been revolts across the Middle East as oppressed people have risen up peacefully against their repressive governments only to be met with force. Egypt, Yemen, Bahrain, Libya and now Syria, each is rooted in history and each is different. Taken together they are inspiring others around the world.  I have not written much on Yemen or Syria but expect in the coming weeks and months there will be plenty of opportunities to look at the history, culture and unique aspects of these revolts and their potential impact in the region and around the world.  It is my belief that they are helping usher in a new age of revolution with results that will be as dramatic and important as the fall of Empires at the close of the First World War.  Looking at each article you can see how my thought process has evolved as the situation has developed.

Also a page update. I have updated the Middle East Page found in the top menu.

Peace

Padre Steve+

Walk Like an Egyptian: The Egyptian Revolution and the Radicalization of the Middle East Published31 January 2011. An analysis of the probability of the radicalization of the Middle East as revolution spreads.

The Beginning of Chaos in Egypt: Watching and Waiting as the Situation Deteriorates Published2 February 2011 as the situation began to deteriorate in Egypt as Mubarak loyalists attacked protesters in Tahir Squar.

Egypt: As Mysterious as the Sphinx and as Dangerous as a Cobra….What Next? Posted11 February 2011.  A continuation of my observations of  the revolution in Egypt prior to the fall of Hosni Mubarak.

Danger in the Arabian Gulf: The Fires of Protest Spread to Bahrain Posted18 February 2011. The article deals with the protests in Bahrain and my experiences and observations having traveled there many times.

Damned if you do…Damned if you Don’t: The Middle East Protests and U.S. Foreign Policy Posted 19 February 2011. An examination of the difficulties facing U.S. Foreign policy officials in light of the recent spread of revolution in the Arab World.

To the Shores of Tripoli: The Flames of Revolution Spread to Libya as Gaddafi Fights Back Posted February 21st as the protests in Libya provoked a response from dictator Moammar Gaddafi. Saif Al Islam Gaddafi said We will take up arms… we will fight to the last bullet… We will destroy seditious elements. If everybody is armed, it is civil war, we will kill each other.”

Göttdammerung in Libya: Shades of Hitler as Gaddafi Promises to Die as a Martyr Published 22 February 2011 Moammar Gaddafi promises “I am a fighter, a revolutionary from tents … I will die as a martyr at the end… I have not yet ordered the use of force, not yet ordered one bullet to be fired … when i do, everything will burn.”   Moammar Gaddafi accurately predicts his death.

The Guns of March Published 9 March 2011. “War is the unfolding of miscalculations” Barbara Tuchman Libya in the context of the broader Middle East and US Military capabilities.

Gaddafi Taunts the West and Kills his People: Our inaction speaks so loud he can’t hear a Word that we are Saying  Published 11 March 2011.  The cost of inaction and the risks of making threats that you do not back up with force.  When I wrote this I believed that if nothing was done that Gaddafi or terrorist organizations like Al Qaeda and others could turn this revolt into a regional war.

Strike on Libya: The Unknown outcome of Operation Odyssey Dawn Published20 March 2011. The beginning of the NATO air campaign in Libya.

Damned if you do and Damned if you Don’t: The Allied Intervention in Libya Published March 21st 2011.  War is the province of chance. In no other sphere of human activity must such a margin be left for this intruder. It increases the uncertainty of every circumstance and deranges the course of events.”- Karl von Clausewitz The opportunities and peril associated with the NATO intervention in Libya.

Gaddafi’s Götterdämmerung: The End in Tripoli Published 21 August 2011.  The fall of  Tripoli, the Libyan Rebels drive out Gaddafi.

The Promise and Peril of Revolutionary Times: A Warning From History  Published 18 October 2011. Putting revolutions around the world in context.

Gaddafi is Dead so what happens Now? Published 20 October 2011. The death of Moammar Gaddafi and questions of what comes next.

Why the Libyans were able to Overthrow Gaddafi and what We can learn from It: A Lesson from the work of T E Lawrence  Published 21 October 2011 What NATO and theUnited States did right inLibya and a look at Middle East History.

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Filed under Foreign Policy, History, middle east, Military

Egypt: As Mysterious as the Sphinx and as Dangerous as a Cobra….What Next?

Hosni Mubarak delivers his speech (AFP Photo via Yahoo News)

Today after hours of speculation fueled by senior Egyptian Army officers demonstrators in Tahrir Square believed that Hosni Mubarak was about to leave office. The Army High command convened without Mubarak present and issued statement which said:

“In the name of God, Statement No 1, issued by the Higher Council of the Armed Forces, stemming from the armed forces’ responsibility and committing to the protection of the people, safeguarding their interest and security, and keen on the safety of the homeland, the citizens and the achievements of the great Egyptian people, and asserting the legitimate rights of the people, the Higher Council of the Armed Forces convened today, Thursday 10 February 2011, to deliberate on the latest developments of the situation and decided to remain in continuous session to discuss what measures and arrangements could be taken to safeguard the homeland and its achievements, and the aspirations of the great Egyptian people. Peace, mercy and the blessings of God.”

The Army with the Protesters in Tahrir Square (Reuters Photo via Yahoo News)

It appeared that the Army was forcing Mubarak’s hand as earlier in the day General Hassan al-Roweni, an Egyptian army commander went to Tahrir Square and told protesters in the square that “everything you want will be realized.”

It was announced that Mubarak would address the nation in the evening and other reports indicated that he would step down.  Mubarak announced his intention to remain as President while handing over the some responsibilities to Vice President Omar Sulleimen.  His tone was defiant although he said that he is “totally committed to fulfilling all the promises” that he has earlier made regarding constitutional and political reform. Both Mubarak and Sulleiman addressed the crowd saying that they understood them and promised justice for those martyred.  After the initial shock wore off the demonstrators began to shake their shoes a sign of disrespect and some broke away from the main demonstration heading in the direction of the Presidential Palace. The Egyptian Ambassador to the United States Sameh Shoukry said “The vice president is the de facto president.”

Protesters wave their shoes at Mubarak (AFP Photo via Yahoo News)

None of this has swayed the demonstrators and the expectation is that even larger demonstrations will occur tomorrow.  Some believe that Mubarak is baiting the protestors hoping that they will become violent so he has reason to use massive force against them. The Vice President is also in charge of the Interior Ministry which controls the Police, the Secret Police and a vast network of paid informants with an estimated one million men at his disposal. Mohammed El Baradei tweeted “Egypt will explode. Army must save the country now.”  Despite their chants for Mubarak to “go” the other chant was “peace.” It does not appear that the protesters will resort to violence with the mood still upbeat.

The question mark is still the Army which appears to have been blindsided by Mubarak’s announcement. Unlike those under Sulleiman’s command the Army contains large numbers of young people who likely have very similar sentiments to the protestors. I am sure that the Army High Command understands that fact.  It is very possible that the Army is at loggerheads with Mubarak and Sulleiman.

Tomorrow will be critical.  We do not know what will happen. As mysterious as the Sphinx itself the situation in Egypt remains a mystery to many observers.  Will the Army take control? Will it stand by and do nothing? Will the Police take action? Will a civil war break out between the Army and the Interior Ministry forces?

We don’t know. However one thing can be certain if there is a crackdown on the demonstrators, which decapitates the movement the only benefits the Moslem Brotherhood which has been conspicuously absent from the demonstration and would be poised to take over leadership of the revolution should the Mubarak-Sulleiman government fall quickly.  I do not expect the Army to lead any such crackdown but it is conceivable that the same thugs who attacked last week could do so again.

This was a very dangerous situation. I pray that the end will be peaceful.

Peace

Padre Steve+

 

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