The Unfolding of Miscalculations: Kim Jong Un and Donald Trump on the Bubble

Friends of Padre Steve’s World,

As we approach the seventy-six anniversary of the attack on Pearl Harbor and the U.S. entry into the Second World War I am becoming ever more concerned with the situation on the Korean Peninsula. This is in large part because I believe that when different officials from the President, to his UN Ambassador, his National Security Advisor, and senior Senators begin to speak openly of the increased chances of armed conflict while increasing military drills and presence that war is more likely than not.

I’m a historian and my studies of the path to war in the 20th and 21st centuries is full of bluster and full of miscalculations on both sides of any conflict. That includes the years and months leading to Pearl Harbor when the Japanese leadership decided upon war when a host of other diplomatic and economic options were still viable. In our day the North Korean leadership could chose the logical course of action to expand economic activists with China, Japan, and South Korea while engaging the United States in diplomatic efforts. Instead they seem intent on provoking an American President who is equally intent on throwing diplomatic and economic courses of actions to the wind in favor of a military option.

This is not a good situation and I really do think that the odds are far more favorable to war breaking out by this time next year if not far sooner as Kim Jong Un pushes the envelope on his ICBM and nuclear programs.

When war comes, and I really do think that it will, it will be because Lil’ Kim, President Trump and their advisors made numerous miscalculations. I really don’t think that either party wants to bring about war, but the miscalculations are too troubling to ignore. Someone is going to slip up. As Barbara Tuchman wrote: War is the unfolding of miscalculations.

As for me I hope that at least one sane member of the Trump Administration has the moral courage to find a way to stop, delay, or turn North Korea into a friend before things get too out of hand. Sadly, I don’t think that that is going to happen.

So until tomorrow,

Peace

Padre Steve+

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Filed under History, Korean Conflicts, leadership, Military, Political Commentary

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