Tag Archives: newt gingrich

March 20, 2012 · 23:13

Bad Blood: Romney Wins Illinois, Missouri in Chaos and GOP Rift Widens

The “Wall Street financier” beat the “economic lightweight” tonight in the Land of Lincoln but the Republican race is still going to continue. Santorum lost by double digits but in any normal year he should have lost by far more. The voter turnout as in most previous GOP primaries was lower than 2008 which points to problems later on because it shows that in spite of their dislike for President Obama is that the GOP is not excited about its candidates.  The rhetoric continues to spiral into the land of frustration and anger as both candidates and campaigns have resorted to elementary school playground type name calling.

Romney’s win was important coming on the heels of coming in third in both Mississippi and Alabama. In that sense it was a big win, perhaps his biggest win of this primary season to date. But Romney needs to win more and put Santorum away and try to collect the support of Evangelical Christian social conservatives who heavily back Santorum.  If Santorum comes back with a win in Louisiana the talk will shift back to how Romney cannot seal the deal.

The vote showed Santorum’s weaknesses as well as the irrelevance of Newt Gingrich who is by all reason is splitting the conservative vote and hindering Santorum in is battle against Romney.

There are signs both Santorum and Romney are wearing thin on the independent vote on which the election will hinge. Polls show that both men have much higher negative ratings from independents than does President Obama.  The issue with Romney is that he seems out of touch and Santorum because he seems too extreme. Perception matters and neither Santorum or Romney seem to get the fact that the way that they come across does matter.  Tommy Lasorda noted something about baseball that I think is very applicable in a Presidential campaign of this nature. “No matter how good you are, you’re going to lose one-third of your games.  No matter how bad you are you’re going to win one-third of your games.  It’s the other third that makes the difference.”  In such a polarized race the independents are that third that make the difference even if they aren’t exactly a third of the electorate.

My prediction is that as both campaigns continue to battle each other that they will continue to widen the rift between the Santorum and Romney supporters.  I still believe that this race continues deep into the primary season if not all the way to Orlando. I think that even if it looks like Romney will wrap up the nomination that many Evangelical Christian social conservatives and quite probably much of the Tea Party wing will feel alienated from the GOP and with well over 25% of GOP voters saying that a candidates religion was a “very important factor” in their vote it is possible that Romney will not get their support even as the nominee. In a close election that will matter.  Both parties have to lock up their base while winning the independents. Any crack in the GOP base could be disastrous to their nominee.

The lack of enthusiasm for any of the candidates was shown in the exit polls tonight where 39% of GOP voters indicated that they are not satisfied with their candidates and that the numbers of Republicans voting today were a record low for the state.

Romney is winning in the urban areas and losing in the rural areas; a trend that has been constant this primary season. The problem in this is that any GOP nominee has to have strong support in rural areas because in many states the urban areas traditionally vote Democrat and will be won by President Obama in the November general election regardless of who the GOP nominee is.  The evidence of this is shown in in the Missouri caucuses last weekend where the largest country caucus in St Charles County had to be broken up by the police at the organizers’s request because of the chaos at the site. The battle for delegates across the country especially in caucus states is so clouded it is difficult to tell exactly what the count really is despite each candidate’s spin. I have linked two videos showing the chaos of that event.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=I9__0im5kQk

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=v6d9X6krB9A

Romney has had to spend huge amounts of money to bury his competition, money that will not be available for the general election. He and his Super PAC allies outspent Santorum 7-1 in Illinois. The longer the campaign goes and the more invective spent on each other the more likely it is that whoever the nominee is will come out wounded, especially in the eyes of the independent voters.  They will decide the election.

This will continue to be interesting.

Peace

Padre Steve+

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March 14, 2012 · 00:06

True Grits: Santorum Sweeps South

Mitt Romney may have adopted a Southern drawl, learned the word y’all and tasted grits for the first time but Rick Santorum has won the south defeating Romney and Newt Gingrich in Alabama and Mississippi. This was despite the advantage of Mitt Romney’s advertising carpet bombing campaign and Newt Gingrich’s supposed Southern advantage.  Both Alabama and Mississippi were close races with Mississippi being a “barn burner” in which the candidates were separated by under 3 percentage points while Santorum won Alabama in a relatively comfortable manner by 5% over Gingrich and 7% over Romney.

Rick Santorum campaigning in Alabama (Eric Gay/AP)

The biggest loser was Romney who again struggled to gain over 30% of the vote in a Southern state.  Santorum and Gingrich more than doubled the votes cast for Romney. This is a consistent narrative in this primary season, even where Romney “wins” his totals are almost always below his opponents. As I have said since Iowa this has become the search for the anti-Mitt anti-Mormon candidate.  Romney is viewed by the Evangelical Christian and Conservative Catholic base of the Republican Party to be a flip-flopping Massachusetts moderate who belongs to a religious cult. That is the bottom line. Romney has tried hard to ingratiate himself to the base but has not been able to seal the deal despite the weaknesses of the Republican field and his massive advantage in campaign organization and financing.  The results demonstrated Romney’s inability to seal the deal with the conservative base that not only the are the key to the GOP nomination but the General Election as well.

Gingrich is another loser tonight although in my mind not as much as Romney because Gingrich really has nothing to lose at this point because he will not be the nominee.  He does not have much in terms of organization and most of his advertising comes from Vegas Casino owner Sheldon Adelson who has said that should Gingrich withdraw that he would switch his support to Romney.  One has to wonder why he stays in the race except that this is so personal for him that he cannot let it go even if it means undercutting his fellow conservative Rick Santorum.

If Gingrich was to leave the race the Republican party would finally be able to define what it intends to be not only for 2012 but maybe for the next several election seasons. A Santorum versus Romney showdown would determine if the old guard moderates or if the new more socially conservative Christian voters finally gain the ascendency at the national level that they enjoy in many state and local races.

Ron Paul finished lower than in other outings in these states and should cease to be much of a factor in the coming weeks except to draw off support that might go to one of the front runners.

There are a number of primaries coming up. While I do not any of the next primaries to be decisive they could provide some measure of momentum to Santorum or buttress the Romney campaign.  Hawaii’s caucuses will close in a couple of hours and it is more than likely that Romney will will Hawaii. On Saturday Missouri will caucus and it based on Santorum’s convincing wins there in the unofficial non-binding popular vote primary and his continued ability to beat Romney in heavily Evangelical areas I expect that he will win the majority of these delegates. Puerto Rico is Sunday followed by Illinois next week. Romney should win Illinois but the way things have been going Santorum may well challenge him hard in that state. Two weeks from now is Louisiana which I expect Santorum will win in a convincing manner.

When all is said and done by the end of March Romney should still lead the delegate count but I expect that he will not stop the bleeding. Gingrich will face pressure from Santorum and possibly senior GOP officials to leave the race. If he does there is the possibility that he could still be a Vice Presidential nominee.

The race is certainly interesting especially since President Obama remains mired in low approval ratings which promises that the General Election in November should be a nail biter unless something really happens to upset the apple cart.  This makes it fun  for me because I am actually coming to enjoy writing about politics.

Peace

Padre Steve+

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March 6, 2012 · 23:57

Super Tuesday Agony: Indecisive, Inconclusive and a Portent of Things to Come

The Super Tuesday primaries are supposed to provide the boost to ensure that each party has a nominee locked in a ready to go into the November general election refreshed and with party united behind them.  Even in hotly contested campaigns Super Tuesday is supposed to give a frontrunner an edge going into the last months of the primary season. It is designed to bring unity to a party, at least in what the party believes even if it differs on its candidate.

That is not the case this year. Though results are still filtering in at the moment Mitt Romney has won as expected in Virginia, Massachusetts, Vermont and Idaho. Newt Gingrich has won Georgia and Rick Santorum has won Oklahoma, Tennessee and North Dakota.

Several states are still in the balance with the big prize being Ohio which Santorum and Romney are running in a dead heat. Ohio is so close and has such a history of big counties taking a long time to count it may not be known who has won the state until tomorrow. If the margin is under .25% an automatic recount will be triggered.  Ohio was supposed to be a Romney win and when Rick Santorum began to surge Romney and his PACs dumped massive amounts of money, somewhere close to 12 million dollars in advertising to beat Santorum down. This is not good for Romney even if he gets a narrow win. Yes a win is a win but sometimes a win doesn’t amount to much  especially if a recount is triggered.

The states that Romney has won so far are states that he had no possibility of losing. Massachusetts and Vermont, Romney is the home team. In Virginia his two strongest competitors were not on the ballot making it a race between him and Ron Paul. Idaho which has a strong LDS population was also an easy win for Romney.  However Romney was trounced in Georgia, Tennessee, Oklahoma and North Dakota.  The three southern states do matter, any Republican nominee has to win the south.  Romney is not liked in the south, he has a number of things that cause him to be less than popular in the Republican Bible Belt. His religion is part of it, many conservative Christians, both Evangelicals and Roman Catholics believe that the Mormon Church is a cult.  Romney also has to deal with the fact that he doesn’t come across as genuine. He comes across as a entitled flip flopping New England moderate who cannot connect with real people, note his comments about NASCAR.  The fact is that in many Republicans in other parts of the country believe the same thing.

Next week the campaign turns to the south where Alabama and Mississippi await Romney. I have not seen recent polling data for either state but would expect that Newt Gingrich and Rick Santorum will poll very well and that Romney may even run third in both primaries. Kansas has its caucuses on Saturday and with that state’s history in the abortion wars that Rick Santorum should do very well with the GOP base.  Other states that Romney could struggle in include Louisiana and the only state that really looks positive in the coming month for Romney is Illinois.

As I said there are still states hanging tonight but it is very apparent that Romney’s money and organization is the only thing keeping him in the game.  Romney is still in the best position to take the nomination but he if he gets it will be the nominee of a fractured party whose base does not like him.  That is not a winning formula to beat an incumbent President no matter how bad that President’s numbers look.

My prediction, all four candidates remain in the race and Romney continues to take a beating from the conservative base.  This will remain a long, drawn out and bloody campaign. Romney will have to spent far more money than he ever had planned to secure the nomination and may lose the support of Republican party elders if he cannot seal the deal soon.  Gingrich will remain in at least for a while but Santorum allies may try to pressure Gingrich through the Tea Party to leave the race in order to make Santorum the sole conservative standard bearer against Mitt Romney and Ron Paul.

It certainly makes for an interesting election season.

Peace

Padre Steve+

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February 29, 2012 · 18:06

Romney Stops the Bleeding but Race far from Over

The Republican nomination process was supposed to be a done deal by now. Mitt Romney was by now to have for all practical purposes secured the nomination. It hasn’t been that way. After an advertised win that was not really a win in Iowa Romney went on to win on his home turf in New Hampshire. Then things came apart. A series of gaffes led to a strong win by Newt Gingrich in South Carolina. Then Romney clobbered Gingrich with negative ads in Florida and Gingrich added to the meltdown by two lack luster debate performances. Romney’s win in Florida made it look like he had seized control of the race.  Romney quickly picked up the endorsement of the Conservative Political Action Committee (CPAC) and a narrow and disputed win in the Maine Caucuses over Ron Paul and a win in Nevada. However that did not last as Rick Santorum stormed to victory in Colorado, Minnesota and Missouri.  Those defeats sent the Romney campaign which had just seemed to have recovered some momentum int a near panic.

The Romney camp spent an anxious two weeks before the upcoming Arizona and Michigan primaries. Santorum continued to surge during these two weeks and for a couple of days began to poll ahead of Romney in that state. The two campaigns bombard each other aided by the attacks of Newt Gingrich and Ton Paul on the front runners. Santorum then departed from his emphasis on the economy and understanding of blue collar family concerns which contrasted sharply with Romney’s inability to connect on these subjects. Santorum turned the conversation to conservative social and moral issues and made some comments which probably took his numbers down in Michigan. I think that the key mistake for Santorum was his comment that President John F. Kennedy’s religious freedom speech had made him “want to vomit” accusing the late President of promoting an absolute separation of church and state that denies religious people and churches access to the public square and debate. It was a terrible misrepresentation of Kennedy’s speech and plays to a certain paranoia in the conservative Evangelical Christian and Catholic base.

Romney easily won Arizona with the conservative vote being divided by Santorum and Newt Gingrich who improved his showing in that state.  However Romney won Michigan and won the Roman Catholic vote showing a weakness in Santorum’s strategy to go after moral issues that may lay Catholics even have problems with. At the same time even though Romney won the popular vote by about 3% he split the delegates 15-15 giving Santorum a claim to have at least tied Romney in Michigan.

Romney stopped the bleeding and won what were described as “must win” states. However the post primary speeches revealed just how tenuous Romney’s wins were. Santorum closed the night with a passionate speech in which he attacked Romney and President Obama and looked like he was trying to cover some to the damage he had done over the past few days by focusing almost exclusively on moral and social issues where he already has the support of the conservative GOP base.

Romney made a speech that showed little passion and looked to me to be like a businessman trying to close the deal rather than a passionate believer in his cause.  Saturday is the Washington Caucuses and next week is Super Tuesday. I expect that Romney, Santorum and Gingrich will all have wins, just who wins what states and how big those wins are could define the next stage of the campaign.  But even more importantly it is how badly the candidates continue to damage each other will drive the narrative going into the later primary season. This could also effect their fundraising support and possibly increase the calls for another candidate at a brokered convention.

I expect that all four candidates will remain in the race and do whatever they can to gather delegates and seize the momentum. Into this mix the national GOP including major leaders are beginning to wonder what the primary campaign is doing to their chances of winning in November.  When people like Jeb Bush, Sarah Palin and others question the viability of their field in a general election it is time for the GOP to wake up.

The race continues and my prediction is that the GOP fratricide will continue and that if it does the chances of the party winning in November will go down with them. I think that  at this point barring reconciliation and a true united front in the GOP before the convention that any nominee that they field will be damaged goods and despite the obvious weakness of President Obama and the economy stand a diminished chance of winning in November. Democrats should not rejoice and count they’re chickens before they are hatched because they can still lose the election especially if the economy gets worse. However, if the inter-GOP civil war continues they stand an excellent chance of losing an election that even a few months ago I assumed as did many others was theirs for the taking.

It shall be interesting.

Peace

Padre Steve+

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January 26, 2012 · 23:59

Flip-Flops in Florida: Who was Before it Before they were Against it Before they said that They Weren’t? I Sure the Hell Don’t Know

We are done with debates for a month and not a moment too soon especially for Newt Gingrich who got his ass handed to him tonight. Unlike in South Carolina where Gingrich was the clear winner Newt seemed to be flat footed in his answers to questions posed by Wolf Blitzer and audience members and in his responses to Romney. Romney seemed much more comfortable attacking Newt tonight. However I think that he was hurt by Rick Santorum who I think won the debate.

Despite beating Gingrich Romney certainly did not help himself for the general election should he be the nominee. Newt’s campaign as well as all of his huge Mitt-stakes over the past month have taken their toll. Even Rupert Murdoch thinks that Romney’s tax issue alone could keep him from winning in November.  Romney is certainly a shrewd businessman and as he calls himself a “winner.”  However he comes across as both arrogant and unprincipled, a flip-flopper of the worst kind as does Gingrich.

These debates and the campaign since Iowa have been a bloodbath in which Romney and Gingrich have done everything that they can do the ensure that neither of them becomes President. These guys are doing the best that they can to destroy each other every hour of the day and then claim ignorance. I am amazed with the alacrity with which they misrepresented each other and themselves.

I know that people wear flip-flops on Florida’s beaches but these guys put the flip in flop.    Both were for it before they were against it before someone pointed out that they were for it and they had to defend being for what they are now against or really are for but can’t admit it and get the nomination.

I am really getting confused and I know it’s not just my Mad Cow causing this. I don’t think that either man actually believes a word that they that they say even before they denied that they believed it.  Both Gingrich and Romney came across as absolutely disingenuous and consumed with destroying each other on the way to getting the nomination.

In my opinion it was Rick Santorum that was the most effective debater tonight and was very impressive. He was much more impressive than either Romnich or Gingney and I think Santorum cleaned Romney’s clock. Unfortunately for him it is probably too little too late regarding the getting the nomination but anything is possible now. Ron Paul made some points but did not have the impact tonight as did Santorum. Santorum hurt Romney on “Romneycare” and taxation aligning himself with none other than Ronald Reagan on the upper bracket tax rates.  He was also the only candidate that spoke directly about the industrial base and the workers that were the Reagan Democrats and recognized that President Obama had made that point in the State of the Union.

While anything is possible in this race I think that it is pretty certain that Romney will now win Florida. I thought that Gingrich might steal it but he didn’t help himself at all tonight. He was way off his game and he needed to reprise what he did in South Carolina in order to win Florida.  He now has to work doubly hard to try to win this or run a close second.

However this race has show that nothing is what it was even four years ago. I think that it will drag on and that anti-Romney forces will ensure that it does. I think that all things being equal that Romney probably wins the nomination but like I have been saying since Iowa that he will be so damaged that he will not be able to win in November.  He may have the support of the GOP elites but he certainly is not winning the hearts of people that he will need to support him in November.

A recent poll said that 33% of Republicans wished that there was another candidate in the race. Likewise President Obama’s positive numbers which were dismal are going up even as Romney’s favorable ratings collapse. I say this only to show just how volatile the electorate is this year and how dissatisfied most Americans seem to be with the status quo and the people running for the nation’s highest office.

This is not like anything that I have ever seen. So many things can happen between now and next week when Florida votes and the the General Election on November 6th that could influence the election it boggles the mind. I know that my mind is boggled. I feel like I am watching the two Republican front-runners do their best to ensure that their party cannot win in November. What do you think?

Peace

Padre Steve+

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January 21, 2012 · 23:59

The Newtron Bomb Blasts Romney

The Newtron bomb exploded and irradiated the long presumed GOP nominee Mitt Romney and sent the Republican establishment into shock. Gingrich was left for dead after New Hampshire and Iowa after being savaged by Romney backed Super-PACs. Instead after hard hitting campaign ads attacking Romney and two strong debate performances he won the South Carolina Republican primary. It was stunning. Last Saturday Romney’s Super-PAC released an ad that boldly proclaimed “On Saturday, South Carolina picks a President.” If it did it wasn’t Romney.

Hubris

He was aided by Romney’s hubris and inability to answer questions about his income, his taxes and his career at Bain Capital without looking like an entitled and out of touch rich politician. Romney’s post primary debate made him look worse. He tried to still project the image of the front-runner and standard bearer that can beat Barak Obama.  Romney basically said that for  anyone to criticize him or his personal success was to be against success and capitalism. His speech seemed devoid of understanding that the combination of his own communicative ineptitude and Gingrich’s appeal to raw populism have damaged him. Likewise his inability to be magnanimous in defeat to either Gingrich or Santorum after their wins in Iowa and South Carolina make him even less attractive to much of the electorate. Otto Von Bismarck said that the “three signs of great men are generosity in the design, humanity in the execution, moderation in success.”  Well that does not describe what many feel about Mitt Romney after South Carolina.

Romney spent more money in the state than any other candidate, had the support of Tea Party backed Governor Nikki Haley and other key South Carolina Republicans including Senator Jim DeMint.

Gingrich won 40% of the vote in South Carolina and won nearly every demographic. The allegations of his second wife Marianne about his infidelity and desire for an “open marriage” had little if no effect on an electorate dominated by Evangelical Christians. The only significant demographic to go for Romney was that of people that made over $200,000 a year.  (see Fox News Exit Poll http://www.foxnews.com/politics/elections/2012/south-carolina-primary-jan-21/exit-polls )

The turnout was significant, nearly a third more people voted in the primary than in 2008. I attribute this to the activism of the Tea Party as well as Ron Paul’s campaign, both of which pack significant energy. Paul finished 4th tonight but had far more of the electorate than he had in 2008.

Gingrich is not well liked. His negatives are incredible but he can fight and with the money that is now coming in to support his Super-PAC he is going to make Florida a real race unless he does something to implode.  This is a big reason that Rick Santorum will remain in the race.

Florida will be important. I do think that Gingrich will make it close and maybe even win.  I think that he wins the Tea Party faction and will make a good run at the Cuban vote. If Gingrich wins big it could send party elites into a panic.  To them Newt is the Neutron Bomb, he is radioactive and and dangerous.  They do not want him as their nominee and they will do whatever they can to stop his momentum.

But even if Romney can right the ship in Florida the fact is that this race will continue to go on into the spring and that bodes ill for him. I think that this will be difficult. Florida has hit the skids economically and that impacts Republican voters as much as it does others and a Romney that seems to be out of touch and flouting his wealth will not go over well with In South Carolina a third of Gingrich supporters polled say that they will not support Romney if he becomes the nominee and the figure among Paul supporters is higher.  Mark my words, Tea Party and Ron Paul activists will not go all in for Romney if he is the nominee.

Right now as unimaginable as it would have ever been Romney is in real danger and he does not seem to be fully aware of it.  Like Captain Schettino of the Costa Concordia he and his campaign are too close to running aground and still seem to believe that no matter what they will be the nominee. South Carolina shows that his electability is in question. Why would the Tea Party and Libertarian factions want Romney in office for 8 years should he be the nominee and win against President Obama?

These candidates do not like each other and the loathing of Gingrich for Romney and Romney for Gingrich is palpable. The campaign will be dirty and unsurpassed in nastiness.

This will be a fascinating race to watch and may be historic in terms of its effect on the conservative movement and the Republican Party.

How Romney and the GOP elites must be feeling about South Carolina 

It will be fun to watch if nothing else.

Peace

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January 19, 2012 · 23:57

Republican Versus Republican: The South Carolina Showdown

 

Charleston Debate (CNN Photo)

The Republican campaign for the nomination is getting nasty.  These men do not like each other and for one man in particular, former Speaker of the House Newt Gingrich the battle is personal. Campaign ads, particularly those run by the various Super-PACS have been brutal on all sides because they have all mixed truth and fiction and quite often impugned the character of their opponents in addition to attacking policy differences.

The fact that our political climate is so volatile and filled with passion and emotion mean that the campaign will become filled with even more vitriol.  This week two more Republicans dropped out of the race after pledging in New Hampshire to see it through. John Huntsman dropped out followed unexpectedly today by Texas Governor by Rick Perry.  Neither had the support to do much in South Carolina nor the finances to go on. Huntsman endorsed Romney while Perry, Michelle Bachman and Sarah Palin have  all endorsed Gingrich which was probably more important.

Perry saw the writing on the wall when a sizable number of Evangelicals and conservative Catholics through their support behind for Pennsylvania Senator Rick Santorum who was certified as the winner of the Iowa Caucus after Governor Romney and the media declared Romney the winner.  Romney “won” by 8 votes with a total number less than he received in the same state in 2008.  However when Santorum was certified as the winner by 34 votes Republican Party officials in the state called it a draw with no clear winner.  So if Romney wins by 8 votes it is a “win” but if Santorum wins by 34 votes it is a “tie.”  Romney called his wins “historic” history has been revised.  I thought that Romney made a huge mistake when he made the claim and now he looks foolish for doing so.

Since New Hampshire the three factions of the Republican Party have fractured. Romney was anointed by the party elite as the “one that could beat Obama.” However after New Hampshire the fissures in the party between the Republican establishment represented by Romney, social conservatives championed by Gingrich and Santorum and Libertarians led by Ron Paul have opened wide. All claim that getting rid of Obama is the main priority but their personal dislike of the candidates for one another and their sometimes competing agendas have led to a deepening divide in the party.

Gingrich seems to have survived comments by his second wife regarding their divorce and his alleged desire to remain married by have an “open marriage” with the support of major hitters like Rush Limbaugh.  When asked about it by debate moderator John King Gingrich blasted King and attacked the media in an incredibly effective manner that ended the line of questioning.  Gingrich knew that the question would be asked and clobbered it like a power hitter slamming a hanging curve ball.

Romney didn’t make any great mistakes in the debate tonight but he muffed the question of releasing his tax returns in Monday’s debate on Fox News and tonight’s on CNN. He seems be unable to connect with people that don’t believe that over $300,000 in speaking fees is “not very much money.” It seems to me that he cannot connect with the populist parts of the Republican Party represented by the Tea Party. He is portrayed as a flip-flopper by conservatives and believe me there are many Evangelicals and others that will not support him or only give lukewarm support should he become the nominee because he is Mormon.  Frankly their trust of him deserved or not is only slightly better than the distrust that they have for President Obama.

I believe that Gingrich will win South Carolina and that both Santorum and Ron Paul will do better than expected. Santorum actually in my view handled the debate better and challenged Gingrich and Romney in ways that were effective and that I did not think him capable of sustaining. He could surprise especially with the endorsement of major Evangelicals but he is not a southerner and that counts for something in South Carolina.

From South Carolina the campaign goes to Florida and could continue throughout the spring as the factions of the party go all in for their candidates. It shall be interesting.

Peace

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January 11, 2012 · 00:21

Party Like it’s 1996: Romney Wins the Granite State but…

Mitt Romney Unloved Frontrunner?

Mitt Romney as most believed won the New Hampshire primary by a comfortable margin and now the fight moves south to South Carolina where Romney will face a big challenge. Despite the wins in Iowa and New Hampshire most Republicans and Independents are not in love with him his record will cause him problems in the South, especially in regard to Romney’s record on abortion.

Romney is the first GOP candidate to win both Iowa and New Hampshire which many analysts are saying is significant. However I don’t see it as significant as some would. He won New Hampshire handily but against a significantly weaker GOP field than he and John McCain faced in 2008.  On the other hand Ron Paul polled nearly three times the number of votes that he received in 2008.  To further complicate the matter in actual number of votes cast the two social conservatives Rick Santorum and Newt Gingrich have more combined votes than 2008’s social conservatives led by Mike Huckabee.

Wild Card: Ron Paul and his True Believers

Despite his success in New Hampshire Romney may have great difficulty in the south. Many Republicans, especially those of the Tea Party and Libertarian factions may see Romney as someone that might be able to defeat President Obama but may not want to surrender their party to a man that they really do not trust for the next 8 years.  That is something that I do not hear many people saying.  Buying Romney now means buying him until 2020 and I do not think that Tea Party, Libertarian or Social Conservatives will be willing to do that even if it means 4 more years of Barak Obama. They can run against Obama but once Romney is President it will be much harder for them to get him out.

This could well be like 1996 where the Republicans nominated Bob Dole but despite their hatred of Bill Clinton and desire to see him defeated could not rally behind Dole.

Romney has not helped himself with numerous gaffes and comments that are easily taken out of context and have been put into sound bites by his opponents in the GOP and will be by the Democrats when the battle is truly joined.  He sounds great behind the teleprompter but not very good in the moment. In that aspect he is much like President Obama in style.

No one is leaving the race and all the candidates are heading to South Carolina which is much more a predictor of the eventual nominee than either Iowa or New Hampshire. This is Republican campaign is going to be bloody as it is personal especially for Gingrich who now has massive amount of money to spend and willingness to use it to sink Romney. Romney has a comfortable lead in the last poll over the divided social conservatives in South Carolina and probably wins the state. This will probably take out one or more of his opponents but could lead to the social conservatives to unite behind one candidate, most likely Rick Santorum but possibly and this is a stretch Rick Perry.

I believe that Ron Paul and his supporters will leave the party because they are in no mood to compromise with Romney who they see as “Obama Lite.”  Social conservatives  especially Evangelicals that in their hearts believe that Romney’s Mormon faith makes him a cultist may sit out the election or support Paul or splinter social conservative parties such as the Constitution Party.  This weekend the most prominent of the social conservatives are getting together to see if they can find a conservative alternative to Romney.

When all is said and done I do think Romney wins South Carolina and will get the nomination. Some of his opponents in the GOP will fall in line but ideology matters now in the GOP whether it is social conservatism or libertarianism. However he will look like a ship that survived a Kamikaze attack. He’ll survive but he will be so wounded that he will lose in November despite the weaknesses and unpopularity of President Obama.  The question will be will the GOP galvanize itself behind a candidate that few really like and many view with great suspicion and distrust on a multitude of issues to defeat President Obama?

Back to the Future? Bob Dole and Jack Kemp in 1996

A few months ago I thought that Romney was sure not only to win the nomination but to go on and defeat President Obama in the fall but while I’m pretty sure that he will win the nomination I can easily see him now going the way of Bob Dole.  Party like it’s 1996 because it could be back to the future.

Peace

Padre Steve+

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January 3, 2012 · 23:59

Iowa Caucus: Media Feeding Frenzy Looking for the Un-Mormon Anti-Mitt

The votes are still being counted and with about 96% of the votes counted it will be a photo-finish between Mitt Romney and Rick Santorum with Ron Paul just a bit behind in third place. The race between Romney and Santorum  It is so close that at least one network is predicting that it may not be able to call the race until the last vote is counted.

Reporters, pundits and pollsters are trying to sort out what this means but the reality is that three quarters of Republicans in Iowa don’t want Mitt Romney as their nominee.  Romney has the money, organizations and old line GOP support to run the table if he wasn’t viewed as the member of a religious cult by half the GOP and as a out of touch rich Massachusetts flip-flopper without John Kerry’s medals.

The fact is that if you add the non-Ron Paul “Conservative Christians” Santorum, Gingrich, Perry and Bachmann together they come in at at about 53% of the total vote. This is important because Romney has to win in the South and Midwest where the conservative Evangelical and Catholic vote has to be won to win. That demographic favors whoever is the Un-Mormon Anti-Mitt.  Many of Romney’s “supporters” close to 40% have reservations about him.

What I really believe will happen is that the vote will be so close that Romney’s campaign will lose momentum no-matter how well he does in New Hampshire where as of today polls give him a commanding lead. The real test will be South Carolina where if Romney sputters despite the support of Governor Nikki Haley the race will go on for a long time.  I think that Romney probably will still win the nomination but he will be damaged goods.  Some Tea Party leaders say that they would never support Romney, influential Evangelical pastors saying that Romney is “not a Christian” while others call support for Romney an endorsement of the Church of Jesus Christ of Latter Day Saints, or the Mormons.

The scorched earth tactics of Romney’s Super PAC will not endear him to the supporters of some of his opponents. Newt Gingrich has called Romney a “liar” and as the campaign progresses the Romney campaign tactics will alienate more of the people that he needs to win in November. Romey’s PAC will turn its guns on Santorum and Gingrich will blast Romney in the next debate. It will get nasty.

The effect of Ron Paul and the Libertarian wing of the GOP cannot be underestimated, most Paul’s supporters would not support Romney.  Paul is well funded and will not go away and because many of the delegates won in the primaries are now awarded on a proportional basis if he hangs around he can collect enough of them to be the fly in Romney’s ointment at the GOP Convention.

I expect that Michelle Bachmann is not planning to end her campaign simply just yet but  her closing speech was as anti-Mitt as it was anti-Obama.  However her campaign is toast, even Sarah Palin has counted her out. Rick Perry is reassessing his campaign and going back to Texas.  But Newt Gingrich was not completely destroyed by Romney and will live to fight another day and will have an impact in the South where he will along with Santorum and Paul will bloody Romney significantly.  Gingrich’s closing speech tonight showed that he is going to go after Romney and pretty much leave Santorum alone.  Expect Bachmann and Perry to back Santorum if Gingrich falters.

Look to an unexpectedly long and interesting campaign for the GOP nomination. That is my take on Iowa.

Peace

Padre Steve+

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January 2, 2012 · 23:16

Back to the Future in Iowa: A Bloom County Redux

The more things change the more they remain the same. Since I grew up during the 60’s 70’s and 80’s I have see a lot of change and even have a few dollars of it in my pockets right now.  But I digress.

It just seems to me that I have seen what I am seeing in the GOP Iowa Caucus before and when I look back at old Bloom County Comics I find that I am right. Simply change the names and the dates and the comics though over 20 years old are current. You would think that Berkeley Breathed had drawn them yesterday.

Change the Names to Romney, Santorum and Gingrich 

I have no idea who will win the Iowa Caucus but I am happy that a few candidates might end their campaigns in the next few weeks, or maybe not. I cannot and should not  misunderestimate the power of the absurd.  However it is quite probable that no matter who wins that Mitt Romney will be in the campaign for the duration fighting off whoever survives as the “Un-Mormon anti-Mitt;” Santorum, Gingrich or Perry as well as Ron Paul who will not go away quietly even if he fractures the Republican Party in the process.

Talk Radio Hosts

Yes it is possible that the Republicans will unite behind a candidate to defeat President Obama but the way that things are going with the personal nastiness and real ideological divisions between the various camps of the GOP I become less convinced of that every day.  These guys hate each other and and don’t seem to care that they are crushing every one of their chances to become President.

Occupy Movement

Tomorrow night I will do an analysis of the Caucus and what I think will follow in the week before New Hampshire votes but until then I think I will leave you with some of my favorite Bloom Country strips dealing with politics and elections.

Every Campaign needs Money

Experts and Talking Heads

Sincerity

Traditional Values

Catering to Special Interest Groups

Now tell me…is this timeless or not?

Peace

Padre Steve+

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