Daily Archives: December 7, 2010

The Zimmerman Telegram: Just One Cable with consequences still being felt today

“A prince must imitate the fox and the lion, for the lion cannot protect himself from traps, and the fox cannot defend himself from wolves. One must therefore be a fox to recognize traps, and a lion to frighten wolves. Those that wish to be only lions do not understand this. Therefore, a prudent ruler ought not to keep faith when by so doing it would be against his interest, and when the reasons which made him bind himself no longer exist. If men were all good, this precept would not be a good one; but as they are bad, and would not observe their faith with you, so you are not bound to keep faith with them.” Niccolo Machiavelli

In 1917 the British leaked a telegram from the German Foreign Minister to the President of Mexico. By 1916 the Germans were doing all that they could to keep the United States out of the war while the British looked for ways to assist the Americans into the war. The cat and mouse campaign continued until the Germans being starved by the British blockade realized that they had to resume unrestricted submarine warfare against Britain knowing that such a resumption might well provide the United States a reason to enter the war. The Germans approached the Mexican government with the offer of an alliance and the promise of the restoration of lands lost to the United States.  The Mexican government rejected the offer because as much as they desired the restoration of land that they believed to be rightfully theirs that the Germans could not deliver.  The British knew this but waited and when the moment was right released the decrypted cable to the American Press which much as it had done against the Spanish in 1898 provided the grist for the Congress to declare war in April 1917.  The involvement of the United States in that war made the United States a player on the world stage and was the catalyst for our involvement in  the Second World War and all that has followed.  Just one cable changed history.

Julian Assange, his companions and supporters are some of the most incredibly naïve people in the world.  I do not doubt for one minute that most of them are convinced of the innate righteousness that some ascribe to whistleblowers.  You see there are times that whistleblowers are absolutely necessary.  Unfortunately most self proclaimed “whistleblowers” lack the nuance to know what should be leaked and what shouldn’t, what matters and what doesn’t and the immense dangers inherent in revealing information that potentially could lead to the targeted death of innocents or even inciting whole populations to war.

Diplomacy is a most delicate Machiavellian art.  Diplomats representing the interests of the governments work in a world where there is little that is “black and white” but rather a world of murky grays where truth is mixed with deception, blunt honesty and candor with lies and subterfuge.  It is an art filled with nuance where the slightest misstep could and often has triggered wars of cataclysmic proportions. It is a world where diplomats, military attaches and even dare I say spies work to gain their nations advantages and if they do their job well such advantages are secured without war.

To do this the diplomatic corps of various nations, even nations that are each other’s mortal enemy understand that it is possible to smile, share a drink and converse as colleagues even while seeking an advantage. That advantage might be information regarding trade agreements, military alliances, or countless other subjects.  Diplomacy is a person playing chess game with one hand and a poker game with the other at the same time.  It is a dark world that most people are ignorant of and as Barbara Tuchman said: “Diplomacy means all the wicked devices of the Old World, spheres of influence, balances of power, secret treaties, triple alliances, and, during the interim period, appeasement of Fascism” and Randolph Bourne noted “Diplomacy is a disguised war, in which states seek to gain by barter and intrigue, by the cleverness of arts, the objectives which they would have to gain more clumsily by means of war.”

Diplomacy is truly a Machiavellian enterprise that is not for the faint of heart and good diplomats understand what Machiavelli said “And to be sure, sometimes you need to conceal a fact with words, do it in such a way that it does not become known, or, if it does become known, that you have a ready and quick defense.” Diplomats understand the hard truth that the ally of today may very well be the enemy of tomorrow and that it is unwise to have allies that you are ignorant about. Sun Tzu put it well “One who is not acquainted with the designs of his neighbors should not enter into alliances with them.”

Our Founding Fathers were not fond of alliances and warned against them, unfortunately that horse left the barn years and years ago and like our European ancestors we are now dependant on alliances, even with very unseemly characters nations because for better or worse they suit our security or economic geopolitical needs.  That is the way it is. We are unable to turn back the clock to more genial time.

Thus diplomats and their work matter and what they say and do in public and in secret needs to be guarded because the consequences of “transparency” are often worse than the maintaining of secrets. The latest documents leaked by Assange and Wiki Leaks have nothing to do with revealing anything that is the reason for whistle blowing which by definition is aimed at exposing wrongdoing or illegal activity by an organization or individuals with the hope of stopping it. In some cases Wiki Leaks has done this but the latest round of leaks appear to be more about embarrassing governments and leaders around the world with no real positive gain for society or for that matter world peace. Instead they have endangered many by exposing secrets that might result in brutal civil wars, regional wars or assist terrorist groups to destabilize democracies and kill innocents.  One of the documents listed all sites deemed by the United States vital to its national security as well as those of other nations practically giving terrorists a roadmap to kill and destabilize and even increase the economic crisis engulfing much of the world.  Since many are soft targets terrorists could and likely will use the information in ways that can be unimaginably bad.

When finally confronted by governments around the world Assange threatens to release 100,000 uncensored documents that they refer to as an “insurance policy” against being silenced. The documents are in the hands of thousands of Wiki Leaks supporter who only need the key to unlock them and spill the data with very unpredictable consequences depending on what is in the files. Who knows what if they were leaked to trap Assange and his followers?

Regardless the release of these most recent documents has exposed people in many nations, mostly innocents to grave danger all it seems to feed Assange’s massive ego.  Having had to deal with a decent number of his supporters recently I know that the general attributes of his followers are arrogance, self righteousness and naiveté which when combined together are really dangerous. However they don’t seem to care as I read a post by one of Assange’s followers someone named “sunnydee” who wrote on the “Above Top Secret” website: “Hope you’ll keep us posted. And hope that someone has the guts to open it. It’s best to know the truth, no matter how ugly.” This just shows the naïve and seemingly uncomprehending mentality of many of his supporters. I could be wrong but it doesn’t seem like Assange or his followers care about the lives that could be lost and the devastation that could ensue either due to war, terrorism or greater economic calamity.  Such actions do not promote democracy or open societies they destroy them.

It seems that unless something changes quickly that Assange and his followers could ignite a spark that engulfs whole regions of the world in war and open the door wider for terrorists to destabilize weak governments around the world.  Diplomats are smarter than a lot of people give them credit for and the diplomatic cables needed to be protected and Assange has opened Pandora’s Box.

This is a dangerous gambit that nothing good can come from. God help us.

Peace

Padre Steve+