“Cure yourself of two commonly fatal delusions: the idea of victory and the idea that war can be limited.” B. H. Liddell Hart
“There is no middle path here – either the Gazans and their infrastructure are made to pay the price, or we reoccupy the entire Gaza Strip. Otherwise there will be no decisive victory.” Gilad Sharon
As one who supports Israel it is hard to watch its leaders falling into the trap of invading Gaza, something that they have done before without success. In the past 5 days the Israelis have blunted the attacks of Hamas militants and others operating in the Gaza Strip, killed some important Hamas military leaders and decimated much of the Hamas missile capability through air, naval and artillery strikes. It is clear that the new Iron Dome missile system has shielded the Israeli population from appreciable harm and that Hamas cannot protect the people of Gaza from Israeli attack. However, the protection of the people of Gaza is not the goal of the leaders of Hamas, their goal is to draw Israel into a war that will sap its strength by drawing its forces into Gaza.
It appears that at least some leaders of Israel may oblige them. The Knesset has authorized the call up of 75,000 reservists for duty and Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has stated that the Israelis are to expand the operation. This mobilization is massive by Israeli standards. It is a force that certainly will have the capability of occupying Gaza, and for a time preventing a renewed build up of Hamas’ missile forces, but it will be a force that will be unable to secure a decisive victory as Gilad Sharon believes possible.
Sun Tzu wrote: “Confront them with annihilation, and they will then survive; plunge them into a deadly situation, and they will then live. When people fall into danger, they are then able to strive for victory.”
If some kind of cease fire is not arranged soon the possibility that the conflict could expand is very real. It is also likely that an expansion of the conflict beyond Gaza could be tremendously harmful to Israel and the region. The real possibility that the emotions of war could draw Egypt into the conflict, regardless of that nation’s need for stability is something that cannot be discounted, especially with the Moslem Brotherhood now in control of the government. The even greater threat is that Iran could use other surrogates in Lebanon and Syria to attack Israel and draw the Israelis into a direct attack on Iran.
The emotions of war and those people who have been humiliated by military defeat after defeat are not rational. Peoples who endure defeat after defeat at the hands of any nation only to want to exact revenge on those that they believe are their oppressors. We in the “Christian” West should understand this, it is the history of Europe.
Israel’s operations in Gaza may be successful in the short term, but should they decide to invade Gaza they will invite even more desire for revenge throughout the region. A ground invasion will also cede Israel’s position as the victim of Hamas attacks in much of the world, especially since any invasion will be accompanied by many civilian deaths in a built up area that is already poverty stricken and war torn.
It is not a good situation. One hopes that the conflict can be curtailed before it spreads and becomes a regional war of incalculable costs in terms of lives and treasure.