Category Archives: Foreign Policy

February 2, 2011 · 20:54

The Beginning of Chaos in Egypt: Watching and Waiting as the Situation Deteriorates

Battle Lines in Tahrir Square (Yanis Behrakis -Reuters via MSNBC)

Today violent street clashes broke out in Cairo’s Tahrir Square. Following President Hosni Mubarak’s pledge not to run for the Presidency again but remain in office until September and the opposition’s denunciation of that move as too little too late Tuesday night pro-Mubarak groups entered the fray. Men on camels and horses swept into the square during the afternoon whipping and clubbing anti-Mubarak protesters as they stormed through the crowd. Reporters were attacked and as evening came the clashes became more violent as the pro-Mubarak supports began to throw Molotov Cocktails at the demonstrators. The Army did appear to attempt to make some efforts to separate the groups and fired tear gas to disperse the crowds but did little else. The scene was remarkably different from Tuesday when the protesters calling for Mubarak to step down did so in a peaceful manner unmolested by the Army units in the square. The Egyptian military has aired television spots asking all of the protesters to “go home for the love of Egypt.”

Although the images shown on our television sets conjure the worst and appear to the country devolving into chaotic violence with unpredictable consequences. The fact is mystery shrouds developments outside the view of the cameras surrounding Tahrir Square. We are unaware of what is transpiring inside the government or the military. We are unsure about the extent of Egypt’s government or ruling party’s involvement in today’s counter demonstrations, some reports are that some at least were ordered in from government jobs. The only thing that we can safely assume is that unless some kind of resolution acceptable to both sides arises the situation could get dramatically worse and imperil the success of any government that replaces the Mubarak regime whether he steps down in the next few weeks or holds on until September.

Regardless of the outcome Egypt and possibly much of the Arab World is at a turning point. Authoritarian regimes as different as that of Muammar Ghadaffi and Saudi Arabian King Abdullah have condemned the Egyptian uprisings as well as that which overthrew Ben Ali in Tunisia. They know that the dynamics at work in Egypt, unemployment, poverty and political repression are shared to one degree or another in much of the Arab World, the common factor repressive authoritarian regimes which to many lack legitimacy. Rulers in Jordan and Yemen have already seen demonstrations and Jordan’s king has fired his government apparently to get ahead of the protests and Yemen’s ruler has pledged to step down at the end of his term in 2014. Leaders of other Arab nations cast a wary eye on Egypt and their own opposition groups.

The Egyptian revolution will more than likely not result in fundamentalist Islam dominated state due to the unpopularity of such regimes as the Taliban and Iran in the Arab World. At the same time while Islamists are not leading the revolution in Egypt they are an important part of the Egyptian political landscape and must be taken into account. I would think that if the violence subsides and a peaceful orderly transition takes place that a government similar to Turkey, probably not led by a religious party could be the best result. Such a government would likely not be as close to the United States as Mubarak but probably remain an ally and not an active enemy of Israel as it seeks its own economic growth and stability to reinforce its pivotal role in the Arab World. However there is no guarantee of this outcome.

The worst outcome would be continued violence that leads to a radicalized country led by more extreme members of the Muslim Brotherhood, some of whom have called the Egyptian people to prepare for war against Israel. Unfortunately unlike the older generation of Egyptians the new generation has not experienced war and war’s desolation. The older generation was at war with Israel for nearly 40 years suffering defeat after defeat. In 1967 they lost control of the Suez Canal and the income derived from it in the 6 Day War and in 1973 after successfully crossing the canal and inflicting heavy casualties on the previously invincible Israelis had the tables turned on them. An Israeli Army after driving off the Syrians in a desperate battle on the Golan Heights and advancing deep into that country crossed the Suez Canal, surrounded an Egyptian Army on the far side of the canal, lay siege to Suez and were poised to drive to Cairo saved only by a cease fire brokered by Henry Kissinger and the United Nations. The war nearly brought the Soviet Union and the United States into nuclear conflict when the Soviets marshaled Airborne divisions to intervene and President Nixon raised the DEFCOM from 4 to 3. I remember talking to Egyptian officers, veterans of the wars with Israel when I was a student at an Army school in 1983, they talked of sacrifice and the brutality of war and the effects of the war on their country. One simply said “I do not like Israel but I am tired of war and I do not want it for my children.” Since Camp David Egypt has had all of its territory in the Sinai returned was able to reopen the Suez Canal. Another war between Egypt and Israel would devastate both countries and for that matter not be contained. A radicalized government set on such a course would be an unmitigated disaster for Egypt, Israel and the world.

While we watch Egypt protests are about to begin in Yemen with a “day of rage” scheduled for Thursday with demonstrations planned in Syria and Jordan Friday and Saturday and even Bahrain on February 14^th. Expect such demonstrations as the old guard of the Arab World experiences the long suppressed rage of their people which is now spread in seconds through the power of the social media. Meanwhile radicals in Iran, Al Qaeda and as well as other radicals and terrorist groups wait to take advantage. Yemen which has a strongly entrenched Al Qaeda organization and sits astride the strategically important Bab-el-Mendeb passage at the south end of the Red Sea is a country that is a prime target of these radicals and terrorists. All the other countries for different reasons are important to the stability of the Middle East.

Today’s protests in Tahrir Square killed three and wounded over 600.

We can only watch and wait….and pray as these events develop.

Peace

Padre Steve+

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Tagged as 6 day war, al qaeda, algeria, arab world, bab-el-mendeb, bahrain, egypt, egypt protests, egyptian military, egyptian revolution, henry kissinger, hosni mubarak, israel, jordan, king abdullah, middle east, muammar ghadaffi, muslim brotherhood, red sea, richard nixon, saudi arabia, syria, tunisia, turkey, yemen

January 31, 2011 · 00:00

Walk Like an Egyptian: The Egyptian Revolution and the Radicalization of the Middle East

Egyptian Protesters with Army Soldiers (AFP Photo)

As Egypt goes so goes the Arab World. Egypt is the leader of the Arab World, the largest country and the country with the most powerful military, a developing educated class and one of the most strategically located countries in the world. Much of the world’s shipping passes the Suez Canal and the Egyptian peace treaty with Israel and cooperation with Israel on security issues has resulted in the most secure parts of the Middle East for decades. The United States and the West count Egypt is their key ally in the Arab World but now the world trembles at the revolution going on in Egypt because of the uncertain and potentially destabilizing potential in the Middle East and the world.

Mohamed El Baradei (AFP Photo)

Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak had ruled Egypt under emergency conditions since the assassination of President Anwar Sadat in 1981 by military members loyal to the Muslim Brotherhood. Mubarak has continued Sadat’s policies and been a strong ally of the United States and frequently has mediated for Israel in the Arab World. He has been a stabilizing influence in the Middle East but has ruled as a dictator for all practical purposes since. Mubarak dissolved his government and appointed a Vice President for the first time during his rule. He has steadfastly refused to step down.

Protesters (AFP Photo)

Conditions in Egypt include extremely high unemployment, poverty and social services which are insufficient at best and in many locations non-existent. Discontent has been simmering for years with Egyptian Police and internal security forces keeping a tight lid on dissent. The military however is the most trusted and respected institution in Egypt as it has kept a distance between it and internal security matters. The Police on the other hand are viewed as corrupt and brutal.

Matters have blown up in ways that few anticipated in the past week and it all began in Tunisia, a country on the fringe of the Arab World. Within a week of a popular overthrow of their President the flames of change were rolling across the Arab World, Yemen, Jordan and Egypt. Popular uprisings in key Arab countries led in many cases by educated pro-Western moderate professionals using social media such as Facebook and Twitter.

As of now we are unsure of exactly what will happen. However Egypt is the key. The protests now have an internationally respected leader, the Nobel Laureate former head of the United Nations Nuclear Inspection agency Mohamed El Baradei. El Baradei has called on the United States to support the Egyptian people and says that he has the mandate to form a national unity government and reached out to the Egyptian military which is important for the stability and security of any new government.

The demonstrations have grown in intensity and the Army had taken the place of the police on the streets to the cheers of demonstrators. While this is happening there is a surge of looting and vandalism and individuals as well as communities are taking their security on themselves with no police on the streets to do so.

With the situation on the ground continuing to get worse the United States will have to act in support of the protestors or see its influence in whatever kind of government and with the Egyptian people dissipate. The best outcome would be an orderly transition of power to some kind of national unity government headed by pro-Western leaders such as El Baradei. Unless such a transition takes place the chances of the uprising to become radicalized under the domination of the long suppressed Muslim Brotherhood is a real possibility. The key right now is the Egyptian military, respected at home and trusted it is closely linked to the United States in many ways.

We do not know how this will end and chances of it ending badly are as great as or greater than in 1979 when the Islamic Revolution overthrew the Shah of Iran and the subsequent moderate government. At least there is no Khomeini like figure ready to seize the moment and lead the country into an Iranian style revolution. The Muslim Brotherhood has been under wraps for many years and though a fundamentalist movement is populated with professional people and not clerics and it publically renounced violence years ago. One can only hope that El Baradei and the military can lead the Egypt on a democratic and peaceful course and that Hosni Mubarak will ensure that the transition is peaceful.

Lord help us all.

Peace,

Padre Steve+

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Tagged as anwar sadat, ayatollah khomeini, egypt, egypt israeli peace treaty, egypt protests, egyptian military, facebook, hosni mubarak, iran, iranian revolution, jordan, mohamed el baradei, muslim brotherhood, shah of iran, suez canal, tunisia, twitter, yemen

December 10, 2010 · 01:52

The First World Wide Cyber-Insurgency

In the past week we have entered the first true cyber-insurgency being waged by the Julian Assange’s WikiLeaks and its various supporters worldwide. Experts have been debating if the actions of WikiLeaks and their confederates constitute a cyber-war or simply a form of protest and demand for openness on the part of governments and corporations.

This is an entirely new twist on the traditional concept of insurgency as it is not limited to an attack on a single nation but numerous nations, businesses and financial institutions as well as individuals. It is also being conducted by a loosely international organized alliance of individuals and groups with overlapping or identical political goals which have an almost cult like reverence for Julian Assange, who they defend as if he were the Prophet himself.

Those who say that this is not a war rely on a definition of war as something that is conducted between nation states which is now an antiquated concept and not reality based. What is called “conventional” warfare is a misnomer and conventional conflicts are the exception to the rule. Australian counter-insurgency expert David Kilcullen notes that according to the Correlates of War Project that of 464 wars fought in the Modern Era (1816-2000) that on 79 were conventional “interstate” conflicts “fought between the regular armed forces of nation states, while 385 (just under 83%) were civil wars or insurgencies.[i]

One such expert told CNN: “

“Calling the WikiLeaks back-and-forth a cyber war is “completely idiotic,” said Bruce Schneier, chief security technology officer of BT, a communications company.”War. W-A-R. It’s a big word,” Schneier said. “How could this be a cyber war? It’s certainly a cyber attack, right? It’s certainly politically motivated. But this stuff has been going on for a couple of decades now. Do you mean there have been thousands of wars that haven’t been noticed? It doesn’t make any sense at all. If there was a war, you’d know it, and it would probably involve tanks and artillery — as well as cyber weapons.” Only cyber attacks between two warring nation-states count as cyber war….” (author’s emphasis) ”[ii]

Unfortunately such “experts” know nothing of modern war, to paraphrase General George Patton’s speech: “The perfidious experts who wrote that stuff about what modern war is for Time Magazine don’t know anything more about modern war than they do about fornicating.” Quite bluntly Mr. Shneier is as ignorant as they come and while he may be a “cyber security expert” he has no clue about modern war. It is possible that nation states can wage cyber war as part of a broader war, undoubtedly, but to limit one’s definition of war to such encounters when only 17% of modern wars fit the definition is ignorant.

“Insurgency is defined as an insurgency is an organized, protracted politico-military struggle designed to weaken the control and legitimacy of an established government, occupying power, or other political authority while increasing insurgent control.”[iii] While the WikiLeaks is not using traditional arms their tactics which include participating in espionage which is defined in the U.S. Code as:

“The act of obtaining, delivering, transmitting, communicating, or receiving information about the national defense with an intent, or reason to believe, that the information may be used to the injury of the United States or to the advantage of any foreign nation. Espionage is a violation of 18 United States Code 792-798 and Article 106, Uniform Code of Military Justice. See also counterintelligence.”

In addition to this the WikiLeaks confederates in making cyber attacks against governments, corporations and individuals that take a stand against them are using methods which are best described as asymmetrical warfare which stand outside of convention and are designed to destabilize the existing order for the political intent of the actor conducting it.

In today’s world non-state actors to include traditional terrorist organizations as well as organizations such as WikiLeaks which are non-state networked actors. Martin Van Creveld notes: “In today’s world, the main threat to many states, including specifically the U.S., no longer comes from other states. Instead, it comes from small groups and other organizations, which are not states.”[iv] Such actors in the technological world can develop networks to further their cause.

Major William J. Hartman notes in his article Globalization and Asymmetrical Warfare that:

“Technology and the internet have allowed them to become globally netted players. The basic function of a network is relatively simple. A chain network is used when goods or information move along a network or series of hubs until reaching a final destination. This type of network is normally used by pirates and smugglers where there is no central figure controlling the overall operation. The hub or star network is what we would normally recognize as a terrorist group, drug cartel or crime syndicate. In this case nodes operate separately, but must coordinate activities through a central node or leader. The all-channel network is a shared network of numerous groups loosely connected for a common cause.” [v]

While Assange’s WikiLeaks once was considered a legitimate media source in the “new media” it has crossed a line between internet freedom and freedom of speech to political espionage and it his supports from financial and information support to targeted cyber terrorism against political, governmental, business organizations as well as individuals. WikiLeaks and Assange still claim the journalistic mantel and they are supported by many in that claim, but their recent actions serve to undermine their credibility and while they will have supporters any sense of journalistic ethics has been lost and probably cannot be recovered. WikiLeaks began their irresponsible actions with the release of unredacted documents on the Afghanistan War and the released diplomatic cables do not seem to serve any purpose except to embarrass governments. The threatened release of a massive amount of unredacted documents as an “insurance policy” against being shut down is simply extortion and can rightly be labeled an act of cyber terrorism.

As most people know information is power and those that can harness it for their purposes. The U.S. Army and Marine Corps Counterinsurgency manual states

“Interconnectedness and information technology are new aspects of this contemporary wave of insurgencies. Using the Internet, insurgents can now link virtually with allied groups throughout a state, a region, and even the entire world. Insurgents often join loose organizations with common objectives but different motivations and no central controlling body, which makes identifying leaders difficult.”[vi]

The way that WikiLeaks supporters are organized and the manner in which they have posted the information that they have illegally obtained provides an amazing information pipeline for other non-state actors, especially terrorists groups that will be able to use that information to conduct deadly attacks which will as they always do target directly or indirectly innocent civilians of many nations. The attacks that supporters mount on those that criticize Assange stand a good chance of causing even more financial hardship to the customers of those institutions.

This is an insurgency of a new type, one without borders which though it claims noble goals of justice, freedom and transparency willingly places information in the hands of terrorists who have stated that they will use it. This has and is occurring with the Taliban in Afghanistan and will happen elsewhere as terrorist organizations both national and international use the information to create chaos.

Welcome to warfare in the 21^st Century. It’s not your grandfather’s war.

Peace

Padre Steve+

[i] Kilcullen, David. Counterinsurgency Oxford University Press, New York 2010 pp.ix-x

[ii] Sutter, John D. Is WikiLeaks waging a Cyber War?” retrieved from http://www.cnn.com/2010/TECH/innovation/12/09/wikileaks.cyber.attacks/index.html?hpt=T2 9 Dec 2010

[iii] Field Manual No. 3-24 Headquarters Department of the Army Washington, DC p.ix

[iv] Van Creveld, Martin, In Wake Of Terrorism, Modern Armies Prove To Be Dinosaurs Of Defense, New Perspectives Quarterly, Vol. 13, NO 4, Fall 1996, 58

[v] Air Command and Staff College Air University Globalization and Asymmetrical Warfare by William J. Hartman, Major, US Army, Maxwell Air Force Base, Alabama April 2002 pp. 19-20

[vi] Ibid. FM 3-24. p. 1-4

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Tagged as 18 United States Code 792-798, Article 106, asymmetrical warfare, bruce schneier, cnn, cyber insurgency, cyber war, espionage, fm 3-24, free speech, Globalization and Asymmetrical Warfare, insurgency, jounalism ethics, julian assange, major william hartman, martin van creveld, political speech, u.s army and marine corps counterinsurgency manual, Uniform Code of Military Justice, wiki leaks

December 9, 2010 · 00:19

Wiki-Leaks Minions: A Man’s got to Know His Limitations

“A Man’s got to know his limitations” Harry Callahan

Julian Assange has sparked a cyber insurgency of the highest degree. Over the past few months the brilliant yet arrogant and paranoid head of Wiki-Leaks has acted as if no one can stop him and in a technical sense for the moment it appears that he is correct. Despite the fact that he is sitting in a British jail awaiting extradition hearings regarding charges of rape and sexual assault in Sweden his minions and supporters have launched a cyber war on governments, corporations and individuals that oppose them. They have attacked government sites in a number of nations, major financial sites such as Visa, Mastercard and Pay-Pal as well as individuals. At the same time they continue to release documents in a shotgun blast manner hitting targets far and wide in a very indiscriminate way while holding back the 256bit encrypted 1.4 gigabyte “insurance file” in case they feel their operation too threatened. Hundreds of mirror sites have popped up around the world to ensure if the main Wiki-Leaks site is taken down that the leaked information will still be available.

It seems for the moment that Assange and his minions have the upper hand. They claim that in order to stop them the internet would have to be shut down. Many experts say that the encryption on the insurance file is impossible to break. Their attacks become more widespread by the hour and they appear to be filled with a confidence that no-one can stop them. It is as if they think that nothing can happen to them and that their actions will somehow by creating chaos bring about some kind of new Utopia. Their Utopia supposedly puts “openness” among people and nations as the highest ideal. They presume of course that total openness is something that is good. If people were totally good this might be a wonderful proposition. Unfortunately as anyone slightly acquainted with human nature knows, there are very few real saints walking the earth. That is why most people secure their property, insist on privacy and use things like passwords and pin numbers. It’s why governments, corporations and individuals have secrets. You see secrets are not simply evil but serve a purpose for law abiding peoples in protecting them from others that wish to do them harm. Anyone that has every had their identity stolen can testify to this.

The mistake that the Wiki-Leakers make is that they don’t realize their limitations. They believe that their knowledge of the internet and technological savvy will give them an edge against those that they want to punish, governments, corporations or individuals. While they seem to be unstoppable for the moment they forget that any kind of military operation eventually hits what Clausewitz called its “culminating point.” This is the place and time where its energy of the offense is spent and the attacker becomes vulnerable to counterattack. Despite the fact that this is a cyber-war the principle remains sound.

In this case it is quite probable that it will not be the technology that is the Wiki-Leaker’s Achilles’ heel. What will be their downfall will be their overreach which will lead to a real human backlash from governments whose citizens demand action. The problem for the Wiki-Leakers is that they are human and have friends, families and associates that have human intelligence regarding them. The Wiki-Leakers are arrogant and quite boastful as I have found out and while technologically savvy are not very wise. They forget that as the information that they leak and the attacks that they make will affect regular people, many of whom would support them until their lives and livelihoods are threatened. Once this happens the leakers will find that they can no longer hide as pressure is put on their loved ones who do not approve of their methods. It is much like when Al Qaeda’s foreign fighters started attacking important Sunni leaders and turning the population of Al Anbar Province against them.

The Wiki-Leakers are playing with fire and in their smugness they have no earthy idea of the world that they are about to spawn and the terrible consequences that they will bring to the earth. Unfortunately like all revolutionaries they do not care about the effect that their work will have on the world. That is the beauty of being very technologically savvy and arrogant while ignorant at the same time. They behave as pseudo-religious crusaders convinced of their righteousness and belief that the end justifies the means.

The more gentle nations such as the United States will simply prosecute those that they catch while the brutal nations will hunt them down torture and kill them. They will find that the chaos that they create will turn against them and that they will have to spend more time defending than attacking or leaking. From that moment their days will be numbered.

Unfortunately the chaos that they create will cause people to accept draconian measures which will severely limit liberty and the freedom of speech around the world. The openness that they desire is illusory and they will find that they should have known their limitations. Those that sow the wind reap the whirlwind.

They should watch more Clint Eastwood movies after all “a man’s got to know his limitations” as they are rapidly approaching the point of no return.

Peace,

Padre Steve+

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Tagged as a man's got to know his limitations, cyber warfare, dirty harry, freedom of speech, insurgency, julian assange, wiki leaks, wiki leaks insurance file

December 7, 2010 · 00:25

The Dangerous Ignorance of the Wiki-Leakers

The Zimmerman Telegram: Just One Cable with consequences still being felt today

“A prince must imitate the fox and the lion, for the lion cannot protect himself from traps, and the fox cannot defend himself from wolves. One must therefore be a fox to recognize traps, and a lion to frighten wolves. Those that wish to be only lions do not understand this. Therefore, a prudent ruler ought not to keep faith when by so doing it would be against his interest, and when the reasons which made him bind himself no longer exist. If men were all good, this precept would not be a good one; but as they are bad, and would not observe their faith with you, so you are not bound to keep faith with them.” Niccolo Machiavelli

In 1917 the British leaked a telegram from the German Foreign Minister to the President of Mexico. By 1916 the Germans were doing all that they could to keep the United States out of the war while the British looked for ways to assist the Americans into the war. The cat and mouse campaign continued until the Germans being starved by the British blockade realized that they had to resume unrestricted submarine warfare against Britain knowing that such a resumption might well provide the United States a reason to enter the war. The Germans approached the Mexican government with the offer of an alliance and the promise of the restoration of lands lost to the United States. The Mexican government rejected the offer because as much as they desired the restoration of land that they believed to be rightfully theirs that the Germans could not deliver. The British knew this but waited and when the moment was right released the decrypted cable to the American Press which much as it had done against the Spanish in 1898 provided the grist for the Congress to declare war in April 1917. The involvement of the United States in that war made the United States a player on the world stage and was the catalyst for our involvement in the Second World War and all that has followed. Just one cable changed history.

Julian Assange, his companions and supporters are some of the most incredibly naïve people in the world. I do not doubt for one minute that most of them are convinced of the innate righteousness that some ascribe to whistleblowers. You see there are times that whistleblowers are absolutely necessary. Unfortunately most self proclaimed “whistleblowers” lack the nuance to know what should be leaked and what shouldn’t, what matters and what doesn’t and the immense dangers inherent in revealing information that potentially could lead to the targeted death of innocents or even inciting whole populations to war.

Diplomacy is a most delicate Machiavellian art. Diplomats representing the interests of the governments work in a world where there is little that is “black and white” but rather a world of murky grays where truth is mixed with deception, blunt honesty and candor with lies and subterfuge. It is an art filled with nuance where the slightest misstep could and often has triggered wars of cataclysmic proportions. It is a world where diplomats, military attaches and even dare I say spies work to gain their nations advantages and if they do their job well such advantages are secured without war.

To do this the diplomatic corps of various nations, even nations that are each other’s mortal enemy understand that it is possible to smile, share a drink and converse as colleagues even while seeking an advantage. That advantage might be information regarding trade agreements, military alliances, or countless other subjects. Diplomacy is a person playing chess game with one hand and a poker game with the other at the same time. It is a dark world that most people are ignorant of and as Barbara Tuchman said: “Diplomacy means all the wicked devices of the Old World, spheres of influence, balances of power, secret treaties, triple alliances, and, during the interim period, appeasement of Fascism” and Randolph Bourne noted “Diplomacy is a disguised war, in which states seek to gain by barter and intrigue, by the cleverness of arts, the objectives which they would have to gain more clumsily by means of war.”

Diplomacy is truly a Machiavellian enterprise that is not for the faint of heart and good diplomats understand what Machiavelli said “And to be sure, sometimes you need to conceal a fact with words, do it in such a way that it does not become known, or, if it does become known, that you have a ready and quick defense.” Diplomats understand the hard truth that the ally of today may very well be the enemy of tomorrow and that it is unwise to have allies that you are ignorant about. Sun Tzu put it well “One who is not acquainted with the designs of his neighbors should not enter into alliances with them.”

Our Founding Fathers were not fond of alliances and warned against them, unfortunately that horse left the barn years and years ago and like our European ancestors we are now dependant on alliances, even with very unseemly characters nations because for better or worse they suit our security or economic geopolitical needs. That is the way it is. We are unable to turn back the clock to more genial time.

Thus diplomats and their work matter and what they say and do in public and in secret needs to be guarded because the consequences of “transparency” are often worse than the maintaining of secrets. The latest documents leaked by Assange and Wiki Leaks have nothing to do with revealing anything that is the reason for whistle blowing which by definition is aimed at exposing wrongdoing or illegal activity by an organization or individuals with the hope of stopping it. In some cases Wiki Leaks has done this but the latest round of leaks appear to be more about embarrassing governments and leaders around the world with no real positive gain for society or for that matter world peace. Instead they have endangered many by exposing secrets that might result in brutal civil wars, regional wars or assist terrorist groups to destabilize democracies and kill innocents. One of the documents listed all sites deemed by the United States vital to its national security as well as those of other nations practically giving terrorists a roadmap to kill and destabilize and even increase the economic crisis engulfing much of the world. Since many are soft targets terrorists could and likely will use the information in ways that can be unimaginably bad.

When finally confronted by governments around the world Assange threatens to release 100,000 uncensored documents that they refer to as an “insurance policy” against being silenced. The documents are in the hands of thousands of Wiki Leaks supporter who only need the key to unlock them and spill the data with very unpredictable consequences depending on what is in the files. Who knows what if they were leaked to trap Assange and his followers?

Regardless the release of these most recent documents has exposed people in many nations, mostly innocents to grave danger all it seems to feed Assange’s massive ego. Having had to deal with a decent number of his supporters recently I know that the general attributes of his followers are arrogance, self righteousness and naiveté which when combined together are really dangerous. However they don’t seem to care as I read a post by one of Assange’s followers someone named “sunnydee” who wrote on the “Above Top Secret” website: “Hope you’ll keep us posted. And hope that someone has the guts to open it. It’s best to know the truth, no matter how ugly.” This just shows the naïve and seemingly uncomprehending mentality of many of his supporters. I could be wrong but it doesn’t seem like Assange or his followers care about the lives that could be lost and the devastation that could ensue either due to war, terrorism or greater economic calamity. Such actions do not promote democracy or open societies they destroy them.

It seems that unless something changes quickly that Assange and his followers could ignite a spark that engulfs whole regions of the world in war and open the door wider for terrorists to destabilize weak governments around the world. Diplomats are smarter than a lot of people give them credit for and the diplomatic cables needed to be protected and Assange has opened Pandora’s Box.

This is a dangerous gambit that nothing good can come from. God help us.

Peace

Padre Steve+

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November 28, 2010 · 22:09

Whack them Now: Padre Steve takes Aim at Wiki Leaks

The Enemy: Julian Assange of Wiki Leaks

Disclaimer added December 4th: Reader beware. Due to comments from people that are too dense to figure out that some parts of this essay are over the top hyperbole in the style of Denny Crane I have to ask readers to look beyond the “whacking” and not take all of this seriously. Despite the “whacking” comments I don’t want this accused rapist and scumbag killed, I want him to have to suffer the ignominy of our court system instead, get sent to prison and try to run Wiki Leaks off a prison library desktop that he has to share with a convicted rapist named Bruno. So don’t take all of this seriously and if this is your first visit to this sight take a look around I’m actually quite the civil libertarian and many consider me a pinko commie liberal and even worse because of some of those views. Just remember 4 words: Denny Crane, Padre Steve

Note on Comments: Due to the increasingly abusive invective by Mr. Assange’s supporters in their comments on the comments page I have turned off comments for this article. This is the first time in the nearly 2 years in the history of Padre Steve’s World that I have had to do this. Over the weekend I received a number of comments that I chose not to print due to their shrill and hateful tone as well as lack of any clarity of thought. I have wearied of Mr. Assange’s and his cyber-criminal thugs. I have not had to deal with such abuse since being threatened with bodily harm by Appalachian Neo-Nazis.

If ever there was a time that my civil libertarian self duels with my Machiavellian self on days like today. Today I have to believe that my Machiavellian side is winning. I am fed up with these Wiki Leaks people and dare I say the traitors who along with them that have leaked sensitive documents and posted them on the internet for all to see. In fact I’ll say exactly what I think of this bunch. They are evil and malignant. There is nothing good that can come of what they are doing except to make the world an even more dangerous place and endanger American lives and those of our Allies and friends.

I was reading some the excerpts in the New York Times this afternoon and I was thinking what the hell? There hasn’t been a nation in history that hasn’t practiced what we are being treated as criminals for doing including those that will cry foul and shed crocodile tears about what has been published or will be in the coming days.

I know that some will disagree with me on this and even accuse me of hypocrisy after all of my recent posts about the threats that I see to liberty and freedom due to the Patriot Act and actions of certain government agencies in the wake of 9-11 and they can go right ahead because I don’t care because I’m not one of those Reverend Lovejoy namby pamby jackwagon preachers that recoil in horror when dealing with the real world.

You might ask why I say this, because I have a brain in my head and while I am a passionate moderate I am passionately in love with this country and threats to it from without and within. However there is a qualitative diplomatic and ethical difference between the threats that we face at home to civil liberties and free speech as opposed to an extra-governmental rogue organization such as Wiki leaks which publishes and uses illegally obtained documents to undermine the United States while we are at war.

Part of the problem especially in regard to the diplomatic cables is that Wiki Leaks is using them against the United States without any regard to consequences. You see every nation that engages in “diplomacy” is engaged in the same behaviors as have been revealed by Wiki leaks but since the Wiki Leaks bunch has repeatedly singled out the United States as opposed to other nations it can only be surmised that they are a non-governmental and non nation state enemy much like Al Qaeda. In fact Wiki Leaks founder Julian Assange is no better than Osama Bin Laden and though he doesn’t brandish an AK-47 and orchestrate physical terrorist attacks is more dangerous to peace and stability than any turban topped terrorist operating out of a cave in Waziristan.

It is my opinion that they and their employees should be considered enemy combatants and subjected to not only prosecution but good old fashioned CIA, MI-6, STASI or KBG style elimination. After all name just one other country that Wiki Leaks founder Julian Assange has taken the trouble to go after…I’m waiting…but why wait because there aren’t any, Assange loathes the United States and has been tirelessly working to take us down for years.

Assange and his minions hide in the shadows of cyberspace assisted by willing dupes and traitors…yes that is what they are including the Army Specialist that is the source of many of these documents. Be assured that there is a reason that they don’t mess with the Russians, very simply Putin would have them hunted don and killed one by one. This may sound un-Christian, un-Democratic or even un-American but if a few Wiki leaks staff were to get whacked their operation would cease because they are cowards, in fact I’d start at the top with Assange because if we whacked his minions he would just find others to die for his cause. In fact if the U.S. and its Allies don’t arrest and prosecute or failing that whack Assange we will continue to see him and others do this to us and reap terrible consequences of their actions.

I’m sorry but in spite of our flaws, mistakes and sometimes imperialist overreach the United States is the Good Guys. When people need help who do they call? The Chicoms? Russia? The EU? Give me a break, when people need help they call for Uncle Sam. Despite all that the United States stands accused of by those that loath us, we still willingly put our blood and treasure on the line for others that often spit in our face while taking our money and accepting our servicemen’s blood as an offering to keep them safe. Sorry anti-American haters, we are still the good guys and slimy people like Julian Assange make me sick, I mean the Swedes have a warrant out for his arrest, I think the charge is rape. What an arrogant low life he even ripped off the “Wiki” label and has nothing to do with Wikipedia or sites associated with it. This may seem out of character for little old peace loving I want to get along with everything me full of forgiveness and grace, but this guy is evil and ugly to boot, he probably couldn’t get a date with a good looking American girl and is still pissed at us.

As far is hypocrisy goes there isn’t a single nation including the Vatican State whose diplomats do not make the same assessments of their friends and foes leaders and policies that have been revealed in the Wiki leaks documents. I’m sorry but the Machiavellian world of diplomacy and intelligence is not a Christian and it is not a Sunday school class or Rotary Club meeting. No it is nations working with and against each other based on what they believe to be in their nations’ best interest even if at times it is distasteful. That is the real world and Julian Assange and his organization is an active combatant against U.S. national interests and security and should be treated as such.

The actions of Assange and his minions will damage U.S. diplomacy and our national interests for years. Allies and friends that might have helped us before because they felt secure in doing so will not because they will not feel safe in doing so. This will give terrorists and others free reign to attack because our allies will be hesitant to share what they know for fear that their security and interests will be compromised when what they share in confidence is revealed to their enemies.

Wow that was a mouthful. While I pray that the diplomatic and human damage from this will be minimized I also hope that someone starts playing hardball with these enemies. We are at war and Julian Assange and Wiki Leaks is now a declared enemy. It is time to treat him and his team as the enemy and whack them wherever they are.

Peace or whatever,

Padre Steve+

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Tagged as diplomacy, diplomatic cable leaks, enemy combatants, foreign policy, julian assange, machievillian, osama bin laden, wiki leaks

November 24, 2010 · 18:32

The South Korean Order of Battle

South Korean Marines

This is the second of a two part series on military forces on the Korean Peninsula and supplemental articles on the crisis on the Korean Peninsula. The First, the North Korean Order of Battle https://padresteve.wordpress.com/2010/05/27/the-north-korean-order-of-battle/ compliments this article. Peace, Padre Steve+

The Republic of Korea has a robust military. It is well trained and equipped but only about half the size of the military of its rival the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (DPRK). It is composed of the Army, Navy, Air Force and Marines. It is equipped with indigenously produced equipment as well as that purchased from the United States and other countries. It has deployed troops to Iraq, Afghanistan as well as Vietnam and the Gulf War.

The biggest component of the South Korean military is the Army which is composed of 522,000 soldiers organized into a Missile Command, Special Forces, aviation, logistics and training branches and a Capitol Defense Command. The Army is composed of 30 Infantry and 5 Mechanized divisions, 4 Armored Brigades, 7 Special Operations Brigades (Airborne), 2 Special Assault Brigades and 6 Special Assault Regiments as well as a host of artillery, engineer, aviation, air defense, chemical, security and logistics commands of various sizes.

K1A1 Main Battle Tank

The Army has over 2500 tanks, 1500 of which are the K-1 and K-1A main battle tanks which were developed from the U.S. Army XM-1, M1, M1A1 and M1A2. These are supplemented by 880 M-48 Patton Tanks. The Army also is well equipped with over 500 K-9 Self-Propelled 155mm Howitzer systems and about 1000 K55 155mm Self Propelled Howitzers based on the U.S. M109 series. The Army uses about 2200 of the indigenously produced K200 Infantry Fighting Vehicles which are being supplemented with the first production batch of 466 K21 Infantry Fighting Vehicles. Its Aviation branch operates 600 helicopters.

K-9 155mm Howitzer

The ROK Marine Corps is a semi-autonomous branch of the Navy and is composed of 2 Marine Divisions and a Marine Brigade with strength of 27,000 Marines. Like the U.S. Marine Corps the ROK Marine Corps has an amphibious mission and is similarly equipped with Amphibious Assault Vehicles, Tanks, and Artillery and Reconnaissance vehicles. The 6^th Marine Brigade garrisons the Islands in the West, or Yellow Sea and was involved in the most recent clash on Yeonpyeong Island.

The ROK Navy has 9 very modern destroyers including 2 ships equipped with the Aegis Air Defense System and 9 Frigates of the Ulsan Class. It has 12 German designed S209 and S214 class Submarines with 12 more of the later building or planned. The Navy operates about 130 other ships or craft including 23 Corvettes and 73 patrol craft. The Corvette Cheonan was sunk in March by a North Korean torpedo likely fired by a midget submarine. It also has a robust amphibious capability recently fielding the LPH Dokdo a 14,000 ton helicopter assault ship. It operates about 10 ASW Aircraft and 50 helicopters.

Dokdo LPH

As of 2008 the ROK Air force operated more than 180 KF-16, 174 F-5E/F, 130 F-4D/E, 39 F-15K fighter jets or fighter bombers. They are also pending the delivery of 21 additional F-15Ks between 2010 and 2012. The bulk of the Air Force, 6 fighter wings is under command of the Northern Combat Command.

Supplementing the ROK forces at U.S. Forces Korea which include the ground forces of the 8^th Army, now consisting of the 2^nd Infantry Division (FWD) composed of 1^st Heavy Combat Brigade Team, 201^st Fires Brigade and 2^nd Combat Aviation Brigade and supporting units. Reinforcements can be drawn from I Corps at Ft Lewis Washington and units of the 2nd and 25th Infantry Divisions.

The 7^th Air Force which has 2 Fighter Wings composed of F-16, F-15 fighters and A-10 ground attack aircraft as well as supporting ground units. . In theater Air Force assets can be reinforced by wings and squadrons from U.S. Air Force Pacific which include the latest F-22 Raptors and other attack and bombing units. Additionally units of the Strategic Air Command using B-52 and B-2 bombers can be employed.

The U.S. Navy 7^th Fleet based in Japan contributes the USS George Washington (CVN 73) and the embarked Carrier Air Wing Five (CVW-5) Surface Combatant Force Seventh Fleet (or Task Force 75) comprised of Aegis Cruisers USS Shiloh (CG 67), USS Cowpens (CG 63) and the seven assigned ships of Destroyer Squadron Fifteen (CDS-15) complete the surface combatant forces. Submarine Group 7 based in Guam composed of USS Buffalo (SSN 715), USS City of Corpus Christi (SSN 705) and USS Houston (SSN 713) supported by the Submarine Tender USS Frank Cable (AS 40) reinforced by USS Ohio (SSGN-726) and USS Michigan (SSGN-727) both Home-ported Bangor, Washington provide both ASW capability against DPRK Submarine Forces as well as attack and guided missile attack capabilities using Harpoon and Tomahawk Submarine Launched Guided Missiles. Amphibious forces include the Sasebo based USS Essex (LHD-2), USS Denver (LPD-9), USS Harpers Ferry (LSD-49) and USS Tortuga (LSD-46) which typically embark the 31^st Marine Expeditionary Unit. Mine Warfare forces include the USS Avenger (MCM-1), USS Defender (MCM-2), USS Guardian (MCM-5) and USS Patriot (MCM-7). All can be reinforced by elements of the West Coast and Hawaii based 3td Fleet. Marine Forces of the III Marine Expeditionary Force based in Okinawa and Mainland Japan composed of 3^rd Marine Division, 1^st Marine Air Wing and 3^rd Marine Logistics Group provide a potent expeditionary force in readiness to support any contingency on the Korea Peninsula.

While the ROK and US Forces undoubtedly would control the air and the sea North Korean ground forces mostly based on the border could launch a devastating artillery and missile attack on the South Korean Capital, Seoul and their large number of special operations forces could make ground operations more difficult despite the qualitative superiority of ROK and ground US Forces. North Korea does have the capability to spread the war to Japan which could contribute its air, naval and potentially ground forces to any conflict. United Nations Forces could be added to the allied order of battle.

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November 12, 2010 · 01:21

The War to End All Wars….and a Peace to end all Peace

It was the War to end all war

On the 11^th hour of the 11^th day of the 11^th month the guns fell silent across Western Europe and the war which had killed 16 million soldiers, sailors and civilians and wounded another 21 million more came to an end. It had begun as a conflict in the Balkans which rapidly drew in all of Europe’s major powers. The central focus of the war was the Western Front where the armies of Germany battled those of Britain, France, Belgium and later the United States. Battles with names such as the Marne, Passchendaele, the Somme, Verdun, Ypres, Chateau Thierry, Belleau Wood, Vimy Ridge, Cambrai, the Aisne, represented the pinnacle of killing as soldiers battled in the mud of massive trench systems and Generals sacrificing thousands of men in a day for the gain of a few hundred yards of territory throwing them against mountains of barbed wire, landmines, well emplaced machine gun nests and mortars. Massed batteries of artillery tore men to shreds leaving many men so pulverized that they would ever be identified. Poison gas both choking agents and the long lasting mustard gas added to the hell that was the war in the West.

During the war the war Imperial Russia had fallen to a Communist revolt and surrendered, the Austro-Hungarian Empire fell in October of 1918 and even the Allies had faced near calamity on the home front. In 1917 the French Army mutinied after years of futility with only Marshal Petain the hero of Verdun able to quell it.

The men who drafted the Peace to end all Peace: Clemenceau, Wilson, Lloyd George

Kaiser Wilhelm II had abdicated his throne on November 9^th amid a revolution at home which tore the country apart. The new German Government accepted an armistice in the belief that the Allies would honor President Woodrow Wilson’s 14 Points. Instead they were subjected to humiliation and starvation as the Allies refused to end their blockade of Germany until the Peace Treaty was signed. Hundreds of thousands more Germans died as a result of starvation and disease as their cities were wracked by violence as order collapsed. It was the Socialist government which had inherited the country that had to fight the Communists in the streets allying themselves with the Army High Command to form Freikorps from units and individual soldiers under commanders willing to fight.

Soviet style revolution in Germany 1918-1919

In France at the Palace of Versailles the Allies led by the British and French brushed aside Wilson’s attempt at a just peace and placed draconian sanctions on the new German Republic which had no choice but to accept the surrender terms dictated by the Treaty of Versailles. The Army was to be reduced to 100,000 men with no heavy weapons, the Navy to a token force of obsolete ships, the air force disbanded. Massive war reparations were imposed which were impossible for the Germans to fulfill and which were only paid off this year. The final ignominy was the fact that the Germans were forced to bear the sole responsibility for the war. The German economy collapsed in the aftermath, France occupied key German industrial areas in the Saar and Ruhr and the nation fell into more disorder as the Deutschmark lost all of its value as hyperinflation made the money worthless.

Freikorps helped restore order when the Army dissolved

Eventually order returned to Germany with a brief period of relative prosperity which lasted until the world-wide Great Depression which through Germany back into chaos. Government after government was formed and dissolved and the last Chancellors of the Republic were forced to rule under the emergency conditions of Article 48 of the Weimar Constitution. Eventually extremists on the left and the right brought further chaos as the eventually leading President Hindenburg to appoint the Leader of the National Socialist German Workers Party (Nationalsozialistische Deutsche Arbeiterpartei) or NSDAP as Chancellor. We know the rest of the story. A World War that killed far more than the first 22-25 million military and 62-78 million civilians, a war of extermination on the Eastern Front, the Holocaust, and fearful weapons which ushered in the Atomic and Nuclear age. Europe was shattered, Britain’s wealth drained and empire unsustainable, France divided and impoverished and other nations in political or economic crisis with the Soviets controlling Eastern Europe behind an Iron Curtain.

Cold War

In Europe and Asia a “Cold War” between the Soviet Communists and the West took the place of the previous war. The United States would fight wars in Korea and Vietnam while the Soviets would rule with an iron fist in Eastern Europe and at the height of the Cold War invaded Afghanistan. The wars in Vietnam and Afghanistan caused crisis in both the United States and the Soviet Union and Afghanistan helped mark the end of Soviet power and the end of the Soviet Union.

Around the world colonial empires fell through either revolts of colonized people or the abdication of empire by nations exhausted and economically broken by war. The many of the newly free “nations” were artificial and as a result experienced their own civil, tribal and religious conflicts the effects of which are still felt. The end of the Cold war brought more change and for a time there was a period of American superiority but wars engulfed the Middle East as Iraq attacked its neighbors and was defeated in the Gulf War. However the effects of that war were felt as Moslem extremists took power in Afghanistan and others including the Yemeni born Saudi Osama Bin Laden began a campaign of terror to drive the United States out of the Middle East that culminated in the attacks of September 11^th 2001 and now the war that seems to have no end.

And it was the War to end all war and a peace that ended all hope of peace….God help us as it is unlikely that this war will end anytime soon for us or our allies even if we withdraw from Afghanistan. Our enemies are too beholden to their ideology to stop their attacks until they win or are destroyed, the war will continue and God only knows how many soldiers and civilians will die in the coming years over 90 years after the War to end all War ended and the Peace to end all Peace began.

Peace

Padre Steve+

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October 6, 2010 · 00:13

“Victory” and Reality: Never think that War will be Easy

“No one starts a war-or rather, no one in his senses ought to do so-without first being clear in his mind what he intends to achieve by that war and how he intends to conduct it.” – Karl von Clausewitz

I was talking with a friend recently and the subject came to the support of a certain church for the war in Iraq back in 2003. My friend, who is very thoughtful, spiritual and circumspect made the comment that “they were even against the war” when we discussed the merits of this particular church. I thought for a second and said “after the past nine years of war was that wrong?” He paused a moment and said “I see your point.” I think that in the early months and years of this war, where we quickly deposed the Taliban in Afghanistan and Saddam Hussein in Iraq that we made unfounded assumptions about our “successes” with the end result that we have had to fight a much more protracted, bloody and costly series of wars than we had ever imagined. Like so many nations who entered into wars believing that they would have easy victories achieved at a cheap price in blood and treasure we have discovered once again that the serpent of the fog and friction of war coupled with hasty or politically expedient decisions has come to cause us great pain as a nation and after nine years a foreboding sense that we might not win in Afghanistan.

Like most Americans after the attacks of 9-11-2001 on the World Trade Center and the Pentagon I was all in favor of going after those that attacked this country wherever they were to bring those that planned these vile attacks to justice. Within a month the United States had driven the Taliban out of power in Afghanistan and put the leaders of Al Qaida on the run. By 2002 the US Government had began making a case against Iraq, one of a trio of nations identified as the “Axis of Evil.” In 2003 we went to war with Iraq after failing to convince many allies of the necessity of the attack. When the “shock and awe” campaign was launched, Iraq forces defeated, Baghdad captured and Saddam Hussein driven from power there was a heady feeling of success. Even those opposed to the invasion were amazed at the speed of and apparent ease of the conquest as pictures of cheering Iraqis filled the screen as the statues of Saddam came down. In May President Bush landed on the USS Abraham Lincoln to proclaim “mission accomplished.” “We support the troops” ribbons and bumper stickers were the rage, victory has many friends and some churches even ascribed the victory to God. But as the muse would say to the returning Roman conquerors, “victory is fleeting.”

We thought that we had achieved a “revolution in warfare” in the two campaigns but within months the tide had shifted in Iraq as in a colossal mistake of epic proportions a decision was made either in Washington DC or by the head of the Coalition Provisional Authority Ambassador Paul Bremer. A decision was made to disband the Iraqi Military, Police and Civil Service offices without having enough troops in place to police Iraq or civilians including NGOs and the UN available to fill the civil service gaps. This was in direct contravention to years of CENTCOM plans. To make matters worse we had gone in so light that we had not disarmed or demobilized the Iraqi forces, thus we sent the people who could best help us restore Iraq to working order home. We sent them home and as anyone that knows Arab culture can tell you we dishonored them and created enemies out of potential friends while placing corrupt opportunists in power. It was if we were making things up as we went rather than thinking things through and the result was a disaster. By the end of 2004 a full-fledged insurgency had broken out an insurgency that would cost thousands of Americans and Iraqis their lives with tens of thousands of others wounded. It was not until late 2007 and 2008 that the tides turned in Iraq as Iraqi Sunnis realized that Al Qaida backed insurgents were more of a threat to them than the American forces were.

Over the course of the war the thrill of the early days was forgotten as American Soldiers and Marines engaged a resourceful enemy that was willing to fight us in ways that we had neither expected nor planned. War loses its luster when the thrill of victory is gone. With the transition of the mission in Iraq and a renewed focus on Afghanistan where the Taliban had come back with a vengeance we are now moving toward being at war for 10 years. We have fought the war with a military force that is well under 1% of the US population. The military has fought well. We have not been defeated in open combat despite losing many troops to IEDs and ambushes; though in Afghanistan there have been a couple of near run events where small bases were nearly overrun by Taliban forces. We should remember General Hans Guderian, the creator of the Blitzkrieg and his words about the German campaign in Russia after the Battle of Kursk in 1943: “We have severely underestimated the Russians, the extent of the country and the treachery of the climate. This is the revenge of reality.” General Heinz Guderian

Nine plus years after 9-11 most of the American public as well as the political class of both parties have soured on the wars even while others seek war with Iran and maybe North Korea. I wonder about the wisdom of taking on even more enemies when the military is stretched to the breaking point and the nation is heading into bankruptcy.

But such things are not new from a historic point of view, if only we would look to history. Back in 1940 after their victories in France and the Low Countries the Germans felt as if they were invincible. By 1941 their troops were bailing out the Italians in North Africa and the Balkans while engaging the British in the air above Great Britain and in the seas around it. That did not stop Hitler from attacking the Soviet Union where as in France and the Balkans the German Army enjoyed amazing success until winter arrived and the Soviets counter-attacked. Thereafter the German Army would not enjoy the same success and millions of German Soldiers; not to mention at least 20 million Soviet citizens and Red Army Soldiers died. Eventually the Wehrmacht was shattered, defeated and Europe devastated.

I am not saying that this will happen to the US, but it can. We need to learn from history and look at how good people were enticed by the aphrodisiac of the “victory disease” that accompanied supposedly easy victories. If one looks at Germany many officers, soldiers and civilians drank the aphrodisiac of victory and had their faith in Germany, their leaders and their cause destroyed as the war turned against them and they experienced defeat even while many times getting the best of their enemies on the battlefield. Honorable men that had served their country well were either cashiered by the Nazi government and many killed by that instrument of evil because they voiced opposition to the regime. Initially many had been lured into the trap of easy victory.

Back in 2001 and into 2003 I was like many of those men who served in the German military. I was excited about the apparent easy victories in both Afghanistan and Iraq. But like some German officers of that day who realized as the campaign in Russia was going badly into the fall of 1941 by late 2003 I began to sense that something was going terrible wrong in Iraq. I think it was the moment that I heard that we had disbanded the Iraqi Army, Security forces and Civil Service as I started my course of study with the Marine Command and Staff College program held at the Joint Forces Staff College. The experience of serving with thoughtful Marines in my unit and my fellow students; Marine, Navy, Coast Guard and Allied officers at the school helped me see the danger that was developing in our campaigns. By the time I arrived in Iraq in the summer of 2007 the tide was beginning to turn but I saw the devastation of the country, ministered to wounded Marines and Soldiers and seen the affect of the war on Iraqis. My duties with our advisors and their Iraqi counterparts were enlightening as I travelled about Al Anbar Province.

In the end I think that the Iraqis despite everything will do okay. I believe that most are tired of war and will not succumb again to sectarian violence on a large scale. I do not think that they have an easy road ahead but I believe the words of Brigadier General Ali as I left him for the final time: “You come back to Iraq in five years, as tourist, it will be better then.” I am not so optimistic about Afghanistan or Pakistan and I do not think we have yet seen the worst in those countries, but at least despite all of our mistakes Iraq most likely will do well.

The experience of war coupled with my study of history and military theory at the Command and Staff College as well as in my studies from my Master’s degree in Military History changed my perspective. I still serve faithfully and hope and pray for a conclusion to the wars that leaves us in better shape and brings peace to the lands that we have shed the blood of our Soldiers, Sailors, Marines, Airmen and other Federal intelligence, diplomatic and police agencies and treasure in. I pray for my friends serving in harm’s way and those preparing to deploy and I pray for the safety of my Iraqi military friends and their families.

I am not a defeatist should someone level that charge at me. I agree with Ralph Peters who made this comment: “We will not be beaten. But we may be shamed and embarrassed on a needlessly long road to victory.” However, I wonder if this country has the will to win and to make the sacrifices to do so and not just shovel them off on those that serve and have served throughout this war, a war which appears to have no end and which may expand to other countries.

Like the Germans we are engaged in a multi-front and multi-theater war but we have been trying to do so upon the backs of less than one percent of the population. This allows the rest of the country to live under the illusion of peace and prosperity with the bitter losses and memories of 9-11 fade into a yearly remembrance called “Patriot Day” by politicians of all stripes who often mouth empty words to eulogize the victims and thank the troops and then move on to their next fundraiser. By doing this we have worn out the force without the full support of the nation which is absolutely necessary for the successful prosecution of a war, especially a long drawn out war such as we have now. Unfortunately most Americans have little patience and while we mythologize a lot about World War Two one has to remember that there was a strong lobby that desired to end the war in 1944 even if victory had not been achieved.

We have a military now composed of many battle hardened and deployment weary soldiers who live in a world that the bulk of the nation does not understand nor really wants to understand. We have seen the cost of the war multiply to the point that it has drained the ability of the military to prepare for other wars and modernize itself. What happens if God forbid we are forced into a war with Iran or North Korea? With what will we fight those wars?

When the Allies were cracking the German front in Normandy and the Red Army was decimating Army Group Center in the East, Field Marshall Gerd Von Rundstedt was asked what needed to be done by a General at Hitler’s military headquarters. The old Prussian warhorse simply said “make peace you idiot.” He was fired shortly thereafter. We certainly have not reached that point but should anything else break out while we are still engaged in Afghanistan and maintain a large number of troops in Iraq that could change.

One always needs to be careful when getting into “easy” and “quick” wars as more often than not they are neither easy nor quick.

Peace

Padre Steve+

How to Make an Incredibly Difficult War Unwinnable: The Crass Hatred of “Pastor” Terry Jones for Moslems Endangers Americans

“Pastor” Terry Jones

“Warfare is now an interlocking system of actions-political, economic, psychological, military-that aims at the overthrow of the established authority in a country and its replacement by another regime. To achieve this end, the aggressor tries to exploit the internal tensions of the country attacked-ideological, social, religious, economic -any conflict liable to have a profound influence on the population to be conquered. Moreover, in view of the present-day interdependence of nations, any residual grievance within a population, no matter how localized and lacking in scope, will surely be brought by determined adversaries into the framework of the great world conflict. From a localized conflict of secondary origin and importance, they will always attempt sooner or later to bring about a generalized conflict.” Roger Trinquier

“Pastor” Terry Jones of the Gainesville Florida “Dove World Outreach Center” has crossed a boundary in regard to the abuse of freedom of speech and freedom of religion. While many may vehemently disagree with this religious zealot’s (I cannot honor him with the title of Christian) hatred and bigotry he has a Constitutional right the express his beliefs under the First Amendment. Unfortunately while the Reverend Jones may believe his beliefs to be the absolute truth and has the Constitutional right both to hold and express those views in any medium that he wishes it does not mean that those expressed views represent the entirety of the Christian faith much less the body politic of the American nation. Likewise it does not mean that his views while protected free speech cannot be harmful to the interests of the nation and the people that at least in an earthly state are the guarantors of that liberty. In fact it has become apparent that some individuals and groups can be so convinced of their own “correctness” that in spite of every warning to the contrary that they do all that they can to inflame tensions and undercut the efforts of the military that seeks to preserve those rights.

There are a couple of major issues that I see here and I will not address the Constitutional issues which regardless of how hateful and devoid of reason one’s beliefs may be they are still protected under the First Amendment. This is settled law and has been applied to a variety of hateful and actually harmful ideologies on both the right and the left. Thus as idiotic, ignorant, hateful and strategically harmful an argument be, be it religious, philosophical or political as long as it does not impinge of the physical right to life, liberty and property as it might be it is still protected speech. What bothers me as well as most of the people I know believe about the stated in intentions of the “Reverend” Jones and his flock to be is that not that he has the right to express them, but that he chooses to do so in the knowledge that his actions will very well cost the American military lives in an ongoing war.

We live in the United States and political or religious thought, even hateful and potentially damaging is protected speech. At the same time there are times that such speech can harm the interests of the county and cost lives.

The “Reverend” Jones is planning to conduct a protest against Islam, a religion that he believes to be “of the Devil.” Okay, whatever, he has a right to those beliefs. However, he insists on pursuing a plan to burn hundreds of copies of the Koran, the most sacred book in the Islamic religion despite the fact that the commander of US and NATO Forces in Afghanistan has asked him not to do so, and against the warnings of other US government officials and even over the protestations of other Christian denominations including the Roman Catholic Church, the National Association of Evangelicals and others. The plan which he has announced on the internet has unfortunately gained the attention and air time of major television news networks has been reported worldwide and has sparked outrage in moderate Islamic nations that have a history of standing alongside the United States against Islamic radicals. In places where U.S. Forces battle Islamic extremists the statements and planned actions of the “Reverend” Jones and his little apostate “church” place American Solders, Marines, Sailors and Airmen in even more danger because his actions turn those that might be for us against us.

The war against Islamic extremists occurs on numerous fronts and is much larger than military operations. In fact military operations will not will the war of themselves. We do not simple face an insurgency in Iraq and Afghanistan but a world-wide insurgency where as Trinquier recognized everything is connected, political, religious, economic, military and ideological. In fact since the advent of the internet and cheap digital video technology the potential for radicals such as Jones to adversely impact U.S. military operations and broader political goals in the war against Islamic extremists has grown exponentially. Who could believe that a “pastor” of a 50 member church who has what best can be described as a “Braveheart” fantasy and fetish that was kicked out of a church that he founded in Germany in 2008 would be able to cause such a stir?” Unfortunately that is the power of the new media. The internet has provided muckrakers of hate like Terry Jones unlimited potential to get their message out and into the sights of mainline media that survive and thrive on the controversy of such stories which feed the 24 hour news cycle for days on end. Yes, the mainstream media are prostitutes when it comes to stories like this and hopefully when Jones actually conducts his burning of the Koran will ignore him as Secretary of State Hillary Clinton has asked. Jones may have the Constitutional right and freedom to do this but he does not need to be given any more attention by the media which would work against U.S. policy and endanger Americans, especially the military in harm’s way.

I find Jones’ actions to be treasonous. He may have the “rights” to do this but his actions endanger Americans, not just the military but all Americans by his actions. He quickly redirects the blame for this against Moslems but the fact is that his actions help stir a witch’s cauldron of hate against his own country. He advocates actions against American Moslems which if they were recommended by others against Christians would be enough to provoke outrage that might result in violence in the current poisonous political climate. Likewise in burning the Koran he stoops to a level that Moslems will not go to against Christians or Jews, that is burning books that they consider holy, even if they do not believe that they contain the full revelation of the Koran. Islamists may burn effigies of our leaders and our flag and even persecute Christians and Jews, but they will not burn or desecrate our either the Bible or the Torah. In doing what he is doing Jones sinks to a low that even the most insane Islamic extremist will not do. The sad thing is that despite the murderous terrorism practiced by Al Qaeda and other Islamic extremists, including the attack on the World Trade Center and Pentagon on September 11^th 2001and around the world since then, that the most brutal and murderous Moslem terrorist will not burn or desecrate our holy books. I am sure that given Jones’ theology that if he even had a chance to do more than issue vile statements about Moslems and condemn all Moslems and their religion for the actions of some that he would do so. A man that would willingly conduct an act that most certainly will inflame the Moslem world against the United States, endanger our people as well as his own Christian brethren worldwide would not hesitate to conduct terrorist actions against Moslems if he had the money, organization and backing to do so.

Despite what he claims “Reverend” Jones embodies everything that is unseemly and even un-Christian. He has no sense of civic responsibility and he twists the Christian message so vilely that it is unrecognizable as Christian in any way shape or form. In his ignorant hatred he endangers U.S. Forces and works to make an already difficult war unwinnable as he further inflames Moslems against us. Unfortunately no amount of denunciations by the U.S. Government, military leaders or Churches will undo what will happen if he conducts this action as he has stated that he will on September 11^th. His actions like those of others that have couched the Christian message in hate to fulfill their political agendas stands in opposition to what Jesus himself would do and against the message proclaimed by the early church. His actions hearken to the times that so called “Christians” conducted their own “terrorism” against other Christians, Moslems, Jews and Pagans throughout history and even in recent times.

There are some in this country that espouse similar views to Jones even if they will not burn the Koran. Some of this I know is because of ignorance and some simply because they are reacting to world events on a totally emotional level. I get that. The vast majority of these people, be they Christians or not do not advocate or support the actions of Terry Jones. At the same time their ignorance about the Moslem and Arab world, portraying it as a monolithic “Islamofacist” threat works against their own country and our attempts to win this war against terrorists. We can fight a campaign against a limited number of terrorists and other enemies in Iraq and Afghanistan so long as we have the majority of the populations of those nations on our side supporting us. However we cannot win those wars if people like Jones through their actions turn those that support us against us. This is an interconnected war, and like Trinquier said it is all connected. Even little groups like the Dove World Outreach Center and their hate filled delusional pastor can cause us great problems. We cannot fight the entire Moslem world. Our military as it is stretched to the limit, the protected wars in Iraq and Afghanistan have spent much of our national treasure as well as cost thousands of the lives of our service men and women, those killed, wounded, maimed and those that have the unseen wounds of PTSD, TBI and moral injury.

I do pray that Jones will turn away from this insanity but based on his words and past actions I believe that he has no regard for American treetops or the security of this country. Jones is a menace. He has the right to do what he is doing but in doing so he endangers American lives and makes the job of winning this war that much harder if not impossible. He is an apostate from the Christian faith and a traitor to his own country. I say this as a Christian and a career military officer that remembers 9-11 well and who has deployed twice in support of Operation Iraqi Freedom or Enduring Freedom. I have seen the sacrifice of our Marines, Sailors, Soldier and Airmen, been with the wounded and worked with Iraqi security forces and know their sacrifices. Jones should be condemned by Americans of all faiths, especially Christians.

Our enemies will use Jones’ actions against us as we would if the situation were reversed. They will use their propaganda networks to use this to poison others against us. Whenever American “Christians” do such idiotic things it makes our job in the military that much harder. Personally I cannot see how anyone that advocates such actions can believe that they are “supporting the troops.” I see many e-mails forwarded by family friends and others that attack the loyalty of American citizens that disagree with them and especially question the loyalty of American Moslems. Somehow I recall back in the early years of the Christian Church that the Roman Empire questioned the loyalty of Christians in the empire because they would not acknowledge Caesar as Lord. I wonder if we truly were Christians and paid Christ more allegiance than our political parties or ideologies rather than use him to buttress our own political parties or allies if we would be considered to be “loyal” citizens. In our country Catholics were considered suspect until at least the 1960s because of their “allegiance” to Rome. Now we do this to Americans citizens who are Moslems and we wonder why these citizens do not speak out more loudly against Islamic extremists. Many have family in Moslem countries that would be in danger if they spoke out and many feel threatened as relatively new immigrants by people like Terry Jones. They are damned if they do and damned if they don’t.

Jones has stated that he will go ahead with his Koran burning despite the please of General David Petreus in Afghanistan, the U.S. Government and other Christians. The blood of Americans will be on his hands.

Peace

Padre Steve+

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Filed under faith, Foreign Policy, History, iraq,afghanistan, national security, Religion

Tagged as 9-11 2001, 9-11 attacks, afghanistan, arab world, braveheart, christian faith, christianity, counterinsurgency, dove world outreach center, first amendment, General David Petreus, hillary clinton, iraq, islamic terrorists, islamic view of bible, islamic view of torah, moslem world, national association of evangelicals, operation enduring freedom, operation iraqi freedom, pastor terry jones, propaganda, PTSD, Religion, religious extremists, religious freedom, religious fundamentalism, religious liberty, roger trinquier, roman catholic church, roman empire, threats to religious liberty, united states constitution

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