Friends of Padre Steve’s World,
Well here I go again. Thomas Mommsen wrote that “ The power to lead is the power to mislead, and the power to mislead is the power to destroy.” That one sentence sums up the essence of the Trump Presidency. I have watched several of the Coronavirus Task Force Briefings over the past week. They are painful to watch, at least while he is on stage. Unfortunately, President Trump must continue his attempt to act like a leader at each conference, and every time shows is lack up understanding of pandemics like COVID-19, and their broader effects, medically, sociologically, economically, and militarily; believe me I could name more areas where is lack of real leadership and poor acting ability, to convince us that he actually knows what he is doing is unending. As long as he stays on script during these briefings, uttering platitudes about his interactions with foreign leaders, Congress, and state governors he almost sounds like a real president. Then he goes off script and one knows that it is all an act, and a bad one at that.
The President is not a leader, he is a bad actor who is exposed every time he has to go off a prepared script. He would be better off to just stand in the background after making a short introductory statement, and let experts answer questions, but that is not him. He has to be what he is, a narcissistic sociopath who needs the adulation of others and has a very thin skin. He has to be center stage and doesn’t have the self-awareness to know that most people see through his shtick. He’s a bad actor, not a leader. General Douglas MacArthur said:
“A true leader has the confidence to stand alone, the courage to make tough decisions, and the compassion to listen to the needs of others. He does not set out to be a leader, but becomes one by the equality of his actions and the integrity of his intent.”
Bottom Line Up Front: Donald Trump and his administration were warned about the Coronavirus pandemic when it was still en epidemic, mostly contained to China. The warnings of scientists and U.S. intelligence agencies were ignored, depreciated, and called fake news as President Trump and his willing accomplices assured the country that there was nothing to fear. That isn’t leadership, that is bad acting. As Bo Bennett noted: “Faked enthusiasm is worse than bad acting – it is bad acting with the intent to deceive.”
Likewise, the man has no sense of politics or leadership. He doesn’t understand or care that setting people up to die when you can mitigate the losses is not only irresponsible, but criminal, because Americans are dying, and he cannot even go to a hospital where that is happening and show any empathy, because he has none, and what he doesn’t have he cannot five. Gustave Gilbert, the US ist Army Psychologist assigned to the major war criminals at Nuremberg that the one thing that they all had in common was an absence of empathy. Gilbert noted that “Evil,is the absence of empathy.”
The words of Gustave Gilbert describe the President, many members of the Administration, the GOP national committee, his fawning allies in Congress, and his state propaganda network, Fox News, as well as many radio talk show hosts headed by the dying Rush Limbaugh show the same lack of empathy, to a tee. That my friends is the bad news, but what follows is worse because at least all of the American deaths from COVID-19 are on them, every one of those sociopaths masquerading as conservatives. To think that until 2008 I was one of them, grieves me, but then I have a conscience and they don’t. They have ideology, and ideology can never can never replace morality or humanity.
As of this moment there are 532,362 cases of the COVID-19 Virus worldwide, and 24,090 deaths. This is up from 471,035 cases of COVID-19 and 21,283 deaths yesterday. Today 383,824 of the cases are still active. Of the closed cases 124,349 have recovered and 24,090 have died for a 16% death rate, up from 14% less than 72 hours ago. That is a increase in infections of 60,841 and nearly 2,792 increase in deaths in just 24 hours. Arnold Glaslow noted: “One of the tests of leadership is the ability to recognize a problem before it becomes an emergency.” This was not a strong point of Trump or his administration when the problem was first reported to them. Not only did they ignore the scientific and intelligence reports, they denied them and called them lies, while spouting lies to blame others and insulate themselves from any blame.
I know that I am beginning to sound like a broken record, but the leadership and response of the Trump Administration to it has been abysmal, despite the warnings of U.S. Intelligence Agencies that the pandemic was coming, the administration did nothing. The President made light of it, said that it would have little impact, and played the part of Denier in Chief for two months, but then the stock markets crashed, and all of a sudden the President decided it was no longer fake news and ordered Vice President Pence to head up the effort to contain the virus and its effects. To his credit Pence did. try, and some policy changes began to occur, but to tell the truth, it was too little too late. The Virus had been spreading in the United States for weeks before Pence even received the mission. As a result the virus spread to tens of thousands of people, many who didn’t or don’t know that they are even infected, who in turn spread the virus without realizing they are doing so.
Because I have worked in ICUs and ERs in major civilian and military hospitals in two past pandemics; AIDS during its most deadly period the early to mid-1990s before effective drugs were developed to help infected people live somewhat normal lives. The in 2009 I was in a different Medical Center dealing with H1N1. As such I have been following the COVID-19 infection numbers and death rates with interest since it first came on the scene, but much more so when the first case appeared in Washington in mid-January. Now for the last month I have been watching the progress of the virus by following the data supplied by the CDC, Johns Hopkins, WHO, and this website https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ . It tends to be updated more frequently than the other sites, mostly because it is relying on updates as they are released by countries, and in the case of the United States, the states, the District of Columbia, and U.S. Territories. It is one of the sites mentioned in DOD and Navy message traffic to use in getting solid data and updates about COVID 19.
In the United States https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/there are now 85,594 cases, up over 17,000 in the last 24 hours. At midnight on 26 March there were 85,984 total reported infections with 1,300 deaths and 1868 recoveries. Currently 84,426 of these cases are active. The mortality rate among the closed cases is 39%.
The biggest issue has been the delay in testing and unavailability of test kits. Likewise we are now facing an acute shortage of ICU beds and ventilators, as well as severe shortages of PPE (personal protective equipment) for health workers and first responders, which would include police, fire, and EMS. Likewise there is a critical shortage regular hospital beds and places to put them because our system of managed care does not deem surge capacity important. The Army is deploying several field hospitals while the Navy is deploying the 1000 bed USNS Mercy and USNS Comfort to Los Angeles and New York.
These numbers change multiple times a day depending on when countries, or in the case of the U.S. our states and territories report their daily data. The disturbing item to me is that with the exception of China, South Korea, and Japan and a few other Asian countries that instituted draconian measures to flatten the infection curve, the virus is showing exponential growth in the United States and western Europe. The reason it hasn’t exploded in many underdeveloped Second and Third World countries is that it was most likely late getting there because they are out of the way and do not get the kind of visitor, tourist, and business traffic that Western Europe and the United States have. Likewise they do not have the test kits or adequate medical care to document the spread. However, once it takes hold it will become a killing machine, wiping out millions in those unfortunate countries, and probably leading to more refugees, infections, and deaths.
Likewise one has to take into account Russia, North Korea, Venezuela, and Cuba which all under-report or fail to report infections and deaths. North Korea has reported no cases or no deaths as incredulous as that may sound, but reports from that county say that anyone showing symptoms is taken out and shot. Russia, for a large country between China and Europe reports under 1,000 infections and very few deaths, while reporting almost 7,000 more deaths from pneumonia than last year. Pneumonia is almost always the cause of death for those infected with COVID-19. Coincidence, I think not, especially when Vladimir Putin was photographed coming out of a hospital in complete biological hazard protective equipment. Non permeable suite, helmet with respirator, facial protection, and gloves. that is not normal for a regular hospital visit, even to people with active pneumonia.
Nineteen days ago, on 8 March, the United States reported 541 infections and 22 deaths. By March 18th there were 9,259 cases and 150 deaths. Four days later we were at 46,182 cases and 582 deaths, a death rate of 66%, well over the worldwide percentage. Two days later we were over 66,000 infections and over 1,000 deaths. Now we lead the world in number of infections, as deaths are spiking.
But expect we can eventually expect this to fall to somewhat closer to the world average. But we are not there yet, and this will only get worse with more infections and deaths until the Federal government led by President Trump takes ownership and provides leadership we will have a patchwork of state and local response that only can provide porous protection against the virus. Leading is different than acting, being President is not the same as being the host of a tyrannical reality TV show.
Likewise, unlike China, we are not a police state with a population used to millennia of authoritarian rule that can use truly draconian measures, including welding people’s doors shut, and using massive numbers of police and military personnel to enforce a policy of social isolation, sadly that kind of policy, is the only one proven to be successful at flattening the curve of infection. Likewise, the testing of every swinging Richard and Mulva for the virus is the only way to trace its spread, and focus resources where they need to be sent, as South Korea demonstrated. But our administration refuses to test everyone, saying that it is not necessary, thus we will not have an accurate understanding of the spread of the virus, nor know how many people have been infected.
Since the virus is often spread through people who are asymptomatic, and many people refuse to self-isolate or in public violate the six foot buffer zone, I recommend that any person who reads this article practices an abundance of caution for two reason; first two protect themselves, and then, just in case they are infected but are asymptotic, protect themselves and others from getting the virus. This should be the case anytime they leave their homes to do necessary shopping, or go to a medical appointment. Anyone who goes out should not only observe the measures issued by the CDC, but go further. Personnel and their families should wear some kind of surgical, or other mask to reduce the possibility of transmission protecting them, and in case they are asymptomatic anyone they come in contact. These can be hard to find but there are a number of groups or individuals making relatively effective face masks, which though not to the N-95 standard would give them a modicum of protection. Some of the designs and patterns are online. Likewise I recommend that when leaving home that personnel wear vinyl disposable gloves, carry some kind of hand sanitizer (if you can get it) , wash your hands after every physical contact with a probably contaminated surface, and care antiseptic wipes in your car to wipe down the steering wheel, door handles, and gas pumps.
Call this an abundance of caution on my part, but the virus knows no borders, races, religions, rank or status.
However, almost every day after occasionally acting the part of a real President, Trump continually goes back to his baseline. he blames everyone but himself, and 12 days into a 15 day campaign to try to stop the virus by social distancing and shutting down businesses, he is threatened to reverse a key public health decision he made because the “economic costs might be higher than the virus itself.” He walked that back a bit yesterday, but, yesterday he doubled down on that topic. None of us knows what today or tomorrow will bring, but now many of his propaganda team are urging that he end his social distancing policy, reopen business and let vulnerable people die, all to save the stock markets. Adam Smith, the originator of capitalism would deplore.
In his news conference comments last night, as the two previous nights before, he tried to make his threat sound a little more humane by suggesting that isolated people were more prone to suicide, and would would outnumber the people infected and killed by the virus. That is not true. While I know that social isolation can be a killer, its effects can be mitigated by people that care. That cannot be said of the virus.
However, if people go back to work, and stores and restaurants are opened just as the virus is hitting full stride the infection and death rate will make those of the past few days look like peanuts. Millions more will be infected, and many of them will die. As the true believers and investors realize that Trump deceived them, the economy will collapse like a house of cards. Not just because of the effects of the virus, but because the business leaders, stock holders, and even his some of his cult followers will abandon him because they will finally realize that they mean nothing to him. However, there are plenty who will choose to die in his bunker with him.
So, as I did last night, I highly recommend that anyone reading this read the books, The Great Influenza: the Story of the Deadliest Pandemic in History by John Barry, as well as And the Band Played On, by the late Randy Shilts, and Barbara Tuchman’s A Distant Mirror: the Calamitous Fourteenth Century. They are all worth the read. History has much to teach anyone who dares to read it without political or ideological blinders.
So, because I am tired I wish you a good night. Until tomorrow,