Exponentially Exponential, COVID-19 and Reality, not Fantasy

Friends of Padre Steve’s World,

I know that I am beginning to sound like a broken record. That being said I must tell the truth, even if it appears repetitive. In Star Trek the Next Generation, Captain Jean Luc Picard gave Wesley Crusher the following words of wisdom.

“the first duty of every Starfleet officer is to the truth, whether it’s scientific truth, historical truth or personnel truth…”

Bottom Line Up Front: As of this moment there are 471,035 cases of the COVID-19 Virus worldwide, and 21,283 deaths. This is up from 381,699 cases of COVID-19 and 16,558 deaths. Today 335,534 of the cases are still active, of the closed cases 114,218 have recovered and 21,283 have died for a 16% death rate, up from 14% less than 48 hours ago. That is a 90,000 increase in infections and nearly 5,000 increase in deaths in that short timespan.

I know that I am beginning to sound like a broken record, but the response of the Trump Administration to it has been abysmal, despite the warnings of U.S. Intelligence Agencies that the pandemic was coming, the administration did nothing. The President made light of it, said that it would have little impact, and played the part of Denier in Chief for two months, but then the stock markets crashed, and all of a sudden the President decided it was no longer fake news and ordered Vice President Pence to head up the effort to contain the virus and its effects. To his credit Pence did. try, and some policy changes began to occur, but to tell the truth, it was too little too late. The Virus had been spreading in the United States for weeks before Pence even received the mission. As a result the virus spread to tens of thousands of people, many who didn’t or don’t know that they are even infected, who in turn spread the virus without realizing they are doing so.

Because I have worked in ICUs and ERs in major civilian and military hospitals in two past pandemics; AIDS during its most deadly period the early to mid-1990s before effective drugs were developed to help infected people live somewhat normal lives. The in 2009 I was in a different Medical Center dealing with H1N1. As such I have been following the COVID-19 infection numbers and death rates with interest since it first came on the scene, but much more so when the first case appeared in Washington in mid-January. Now for the last month I have been watching the progress of the virus by following the data supplied by the CDC, Johns Hopkins, WHO, and this website https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ .  It tends to be updated more frequently than the other sites, mostly because it is relying on updates as they are released by countries, and in the case of the United States, the states, the District of Columbia, and U.S. Territories.  It is one of the sites mentioned in DOD and Navy message traffic to use in getting solid data and updates about COVID 19.

In the United States  https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/there are now 68,203 cases, up over 22,000 in less than 48 hours. At midnight on 25 March there were 46,145 total reported infections with deaths. Currently 66,782 of these cases are active. 1421 cases are closed and of that number only 394 have recovered and been discharged, but 1,027 have died, giving us a 72% mortality rate. The biggest issue has been the delay in testing and unavailability of test kits. Likewise we are now facing an acute shortage of ICU beds and ventilators, as well as severe shortages of PPE (personal protective equipment) for health workers and first responders, which would include police, fire, and EMS. Likewise there is a critical shortage regular hospital beds and places to put them because our system of managed care does not deem surge capacity important.

These numbers change multiple times a day depending on when countries, or in the case of the U.S. our states and territories report their daily data. The disturbing item to me is that with the exception of China, South Korea, and Japan and a few other Asian countries that instituted draconian measures to flatten the infection curve, the virus is showing exponential growth in the United States and western Europe. The reason it hasn’t exploded in many underdeveloped Second and Third World countries is that it was most likely late getting there because they are out of the way and do not get the kind of visitor, tourist, and business traffic that Western Europe and the United States have. Likewise they do not have the test kits or adequate medical care to document the spread. However, once it takes hold it will become a killing machine, wiping out millions in those unfortunate countries, and probably leading to more refugees, infections, and deaths.

Likewise one has to take into account Russia, North Korea, Venezuela, and Cuba which all under-report or fail to report infections and deaths. North Korea has reported no cases or no deaths as incredulous as that may sound, but reports from that county say that anyone showing symptoms is taken out and shot. Russia, for a large country between China and Europe reports under 1,000 infections and very few deaths, while reporting almost 7,000 more deaths from pneumonia than last year. Pneumonia is almost always the cause of death for those infected with COVID-19. Coincidence, I think not, especially when Vladimir Putin was photographed coming out of a hospital in complete biological hazard protective equipment. Non permeable suite, helmet with respirator, facial protection, and gloves. that is not normal for a regular hospital visit, even to people with active pneumonia.

Fewer than two and a half weeks ago, 8 March, the United States reported 541 infections and 22 deaths. By March 18th there were 9,259 cases and 150 deaths. Four days later we were at 46,182 cases and 582 deaths, a death rate of 66%, well over the worldwide percentage. Two days later we are at over 66,000 infections and over 1,000 deaths.  But expect we can eventually expect this to fall to somewhat  closer to the world average. But we are not there yet, and this will only get worse with more infections and deaths until the Federal government led by President Trump takes ownership and provides leadership we will have a patchwork of state and local response that only can provide porous protection against the virus. We are not a police state with a population used to millennia of authoritarian rule.

Since the virus is often spread through people who are asymptomatic, and many people refuse to self-isolate or in public violate the six foot buffer zone, I recommend that any person who reads this article practices an abundance of caution for two reason; first two protect themselves, and then, just in case they are infected but are asymptotic, protect themselves and others from getting the virus. This should be the case anytime they leave their homes to do necessary shopping, or go to a medical appointment. Anyone who goes out should not only observe the measures issued by the CDC, but go further. Personnel and their families should wear some kind of surgical, or other mask to reduce the possibility of transmission protecting them, and in case they are asymptomatic anyone they come in contact. These can be hard to find but there are a number of groups or individuals making relatively effective face masks, which though not to the N-95 standard would give them a modicum of protection. Some of the designs and patterns are online. Likewise I recommend that when leaving home that personnel wear vinyl disposable gloves, carry some kind of hand sanitizer (if you can get it) , wash your hands after every physical contact with a probably contaminated surface, and care antiseptic wipes in your car to wipe down the steering wheel, door handles, and gas pumps.

Call this an abundance of caution on my part, but the virus knows no borders, races, religions, rank or status.

However, yesterday and today, after occasionally acting the part of a real President, Trump went back to his baseline. At his briefing last nought he again blamed everyone but himself, and 10 days into a 15 day campaign to try to stop the virus by social distancing and shutting down businesses, he threatened to reverse a key public health decision he made because the “economic costs might be higher than the virus itself.” He walked that back a bit yesterday, but who knows what today or tomorrow will bring, but now many of his propaganda team are urging that he end his social distancing policy, reopen business and let vulnerable people die, all to save the stock markets. Adam Smith, the originator of capitalism would deplore.

In his news conference comments last night, as the night before, he tried to make his threat sound a little more humane by suggesting that isolated people were more prone to suicide, and would would outnumber the people infected and killed by the virus. That is not true. While I know that social isolation can be a killer, its effects can be mitigated by people that care. However, if people go back to work, and stores and restaurants are opened just as the virus is hitting full stride the infection and death rate will make those of the past few days look like peanuts. Millions more will be infected, and many of them will die. As they,  the true believers and investors realize that Trump deceived them, the economy will collapse like a house of cards. Not just because of the effects of the virus, but because the business leaders, stock holders, and even his cult followers will abandon him because they will finally realize that they mean nothing to him.

I highly recommend that anyone reading this read The Great Influenza: the Story of the Deadliest Pandemic in History by John Barry, as well as And the Band Played On, by the late Randy Shilts, and Barbara Tuchman’s A Distant Mirror: the Calamitous Fourteenth Century. They are all worth the read. History has much to teach anyone who dares to read it without political or ideological blinders.

So, because I am tired I wish you a good night.

Peace,

Padre Steve+

1 Comment

Filed under authoritarian government, Coronavirus, Diseases Epidemics and Pandemics, ethics, faith, History, laws and legislation, News and current events, Political Commentary

One response to “Exponentially Exponential, COVID-19 and Reality, not Fantasy

  1. Steven

    Hey Padre,

    About masks and “regular folk”…

    As most people do not properly wear or use a mask, even a “simple” surgical mask correctly, I disagree with your admonishment to your readers that they should wear one.

    A mask does NO GOOD if:

    1) You insist on pulling it off your nose because it is “too stuffy”; or lift the side up to “get a breath”, or etc…

    2) You stick your fingers inside it to rub your nose, pick your teeth, etc…

    3) You take a drink; sticking your drink cup, or even worse a straw, inside your mask is **exactly** the same as taking a swab and shoving it in your nose;

    4) You wear it after; you sneeze; your nose runs into it; it to becomes saturated (wet).

    I have seen plenty of pictures showing people supposedly protecting themselves doing EXACTLY these things. A guy in NY standing ona street corner wearing a mask holding his half-empty Starbucks drink cup, w/straw, up beside him; sticking said straw in the side of his mask to drink. A woman in SF wearing a surgical mask over her mouth, but not her nose.

    At my local VA OPC they have always required Veterans or guests with a cough, sneeze, or runny nose to wear simple surgical masks. Despite being told how to properly wear them, and what the risks are, people still stick their fingers inside them, pull them away from their face, or slip their nose out.

    Then they sit and chat amiably, because “they are safe”; wearing that useless mask.

    IF YOU FEEL YOU NEED TO WEAR A MASK, WEAR IT RIGHT OR DON’T WEAR IT AT ALL.

    Despite the fact that that old, rich, white, asshat, Dan Patrick (Lt. Gov. of Texas) claims, no REGULAR Americans want their grandparents to die so rich old white men can stay rich.

    Money can be replaced; your friends, family, and other human beings in your community cannot. Losing wealth sucks. Being responsible for the death of a friend is a whole other world of sorrow.

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