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Speak Softly and Carry a Big Stick: Words Of Wisdom too often Ignored

Friends of Padre Steve’s World,

I am a frequent critic of President Trump, but last Friday when I awoke to the news that he had called off military strikes on Iran at the last minute, I was pleased. His closest cabinet level advisors, including John Bolton, one of the principle authors of the invasion of Iraq were pushing him to launch. There is controversy as to when the President learned the potential casualties of the initial strike, but I am less concerned about that than that he did the right thing, and at the same time began to quiet his language toward the Islamic Republic.

Whether this is enough to take us off the path the war is yet unseen. Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, does not seem to be deterred or encouraged by anything Trump does. Much of this is due to the fact that the previous actions of the President and his administration have backed Iran and the United States into a corner that it will take overwhelming political and moral courage to avoid war. The pressure on both men is pushing them towards war, and Trump has the additional pressure of the Saudis and Israelis to do their dirty work regarding Iran for them, much as Israel and many of the same advisors did to President Bush during the run up to the attack on Iraq in 2003. For the moment, President Trump has resisted pulling the trigger that very probably would unleashed a devastating regional war with world wide ramifications. I hope that he continues to do so but he is not the only actor in this play, too many other actors, including Khamenei, the leaders of Iran’s Revolutionary Guard, the Saudi Leadership, Benjamin Netanyahu of Israel, the Gulf States, the Russians, Chinese, North Koreans, as well as various Sunni and Shia surrogates all have a hand in this Hexenkessel of potential war and death.

I have too many friends and shipmates currently stationed in the Gulf to want war there. Likewise, I am still on active duty and my nephew is graduating from Marine Corps Boot Camp this week are still on active duty. A war would be very personal for me and my family. I hope that the President is graced with the moral fortitude, something he has not demonstrated much during his life in order to both preserve peace and American/Western interests in the region. The world cannot endure a war of the kind that will certainly escalate in ways that will engulf the region and possibly the world.

President Trump’s bluster combined with his inaction and accommodation with leaders such as Putin and Kim Jong Un, his unfulfilled rhetoric of regime change in Venezuela, and his continued attacks on American allies do not help his situation right now. He suffers a distinct lack of credibility both domestically and internationally, mostly because of his words, tweets, and outright lies. That does not mean that I want him to fail. In fact I hope that he exceeds my expectations of him. The stakes are too great for him to screw this up.

That does not mean that I will excuse his domestic policies or resist when I see him overreaching his Constitutional authority, or attempt to silence his political, media, or social opponents. But, as Commander in Chief in this volatile and dangerous situation I pray that he doesn’t fuck it up. Of course, the President acts on instinct more than logic, and the adulation of his Cult-like followers over reason. Everything he does is a gamble, I hope that since he is a gambler he knows to know when to hold them and know when to fold them. If he doesn’t tens of thousands, maybe millions of lives may be lost and a true world war begun. An attack an Iran could bring Russian action against American NATO allies in Europe, North Korean actions, or Chinese actions in the South China Sea. That doesn’t include Hezbollah attacks on Israel, or Iranian sleeper agent attacks in the United States.

I pray that the President has the sense to find a way to make a real deal with Iran. For me this is not partisan politics, it is about the country, our institutions, and our future as a nation. A war with Iran will destroy all of those institutions, we will become an autocracy, and Trump might be a tool of others far worse than him.

It is something to think about. Whether I am right or wrong, true patriotism can be complicated and extend to agreements and disagreements on policies and actions.

Theodore Roosevelt wrote:

Patriotism means to stand by the country. It does not mean to stand by the president or any other public official, save exactly to the degree in which he himself stands by the country. It is patriotic to support him insofar as he efficiently serves the country. It is unpatriotic not to oppose him to the exact extent that by inefficiency or otherwise he fails in his duty to stand by the country. In either event, it is unpatriotic not to tell the truth, whether about the president or anyone else.

Regardless I choose to tell the truth. War with Iran would would be disastrous. Our nation is neither prepared for it or unified, likewise the state of readiness of the U.S. military is abyssal, despite all of the defense budget increases. Most of those are not increasing the readiness of deplorable units or the base structures that support them. The are benefiting defense contractors and their shareholders. Marine Corps General and two time awardee Of the Medal Of Honor wrote in his book War is a Racket:

War is a racket. It is the only one international in scope. It is the only one in which the profits are reckoned in dollars and the losses in lives.

The President would be wise to heed Theodore Roosevelt’s warning, in word, deed, and tweet. Speak Softly and carry a big stick.

So until tomorrow,

Peace,

Padre Steve+

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Filed under Foreign Policy, History, iraq,afghanistan, middle east, Military, national security, News and current events, Political Commentary

Musing on Potential War With Iran

Friends of Padre Steve’s World,

I am a veteran of Iraq, and have participated in maritime operations in the Arabian/Persian Gulf.

I am not comfortable with the steps the administration is taking with Iran, not that I am any fan of the Ayatollahs and their aggressive theocratic-religious-military-dictatorship. While I had always dreamed of a military career it was the failure of the attempt to rescue the hostages taken by the Iranians in April 1980, Operation Eagle Claw that was the tipping point for me to explore my options about joining the military. 1980 was the year I transferred to California State University, albeit to study history, but mostly because Judy, my girlfriend was going there. Once I got there I started checking out the various ROTC programs and enlisted as a simultaneous membership program between Army ROTC and the California Army National Guard in 1981.

I thought back then at sometime we would go to war with Iran but as years passed I thought that maybe both sides would find a way to peacefully co-exist, at least within limits, especially after my experiences in the Gulf where the regular Iranian Navy chased Iraqi Oil Smugglers into our hands. Of course there was the time some Revolutionary Guard patrol boats harassed our squadron Flagship, an Australian Special Forces Support ship and we sped to her assistance at full speed with guns and missiles armed and ready to go to war. They withdrew and nothing came out of it, but for about an hour it appeared that we would be the first U.S. Navy ship to engage the Iranians since the Tanker Wars Of the late 1980s. The fact is that the Revolutionary Guard Naval Corps operates in a different world from the regular Iranian Navy.

If we go to war, now I know two things about the Arabian/Persian Gulf and the Iranians have built up a formidable asymmetric naval and capability. A large number small submarines, not high tech, but in large numbers hard to kill. Likewise, would deploy large numbers of fast attack boats and craft armed with a variety of missiles and guns for swarm attacks on otherwise better armed and more capable warships. We prepared for those back in 2002, but the lethality of the Iranians has increased, as has their number of anti-ship missile batteries his increased exponentially, as has their number of short and medium range ballistic missiles. While their AirPower is antiquated by American standards they have better and more advanced air defense systems, supplied by Russia. They are also supported by Shia Muslim militants in Iraq, Syria, Yemen, and even in Bahrain, headquarters of the U.S. 5th Fleet.

The Iranians have the capability of shutting down the Straits of Hormuz, and their allies in Yemen have showed the capability to attack shipping in the Bab El Mendeb, the Southern entrance to the Red Sea and a vital shipping lane in its own right.

Unfortunately, the Trump administration has severely weakened our ties with key allies that routinely contribute Naval and air forces to the security of the Gulf.

Over the past few weeks an otherwise routine deployment to the region by the Abraham Lincoln Carrier Strike Group, was sped up, B-52 bombers were deployed, and a proposal to send 120,000 troops to the Gulf was revealed. Four merchant ships were allegedly damaged by saboteurs, but no hard evidence points to Iran, and the damage to all the ships was minimal. The embassy staff in Baghdad was reduced over alleged threat increases that the American Commander in Iraq denies. The threats were reported by Israeli sources, much like the evidence that led us into war with Iraq in 2003.

I cannot put my finger finger on it, but something is not right about this situation. We are in no way ready for a major war with Iran, not with the possibility a potential war with North Korea, a trade war with China, and Russian threats to NATO allies or friendly nations in Eastern Europe.

This does not feel right to me. I’ve been around and seen and know too much. Maybe it’s my education military history, and high level Joint Operations education. Maybe it is my nearly 38 years serving in both the Army and Navy, including about 7 years with the Marines. Maybe it’s my long experience working with allies. I don’t know. All I know is that when domestic troubles embroil a national leader, the solution is often found in war. War allows leaders to do things impossible under peacetime constraints.

I can only speculate what is going on, but my hermeneutic os suspicion says to ask “why this administration, why Iran, why now?”

I wish I had the answer, but something doesn’t seem right, and I am worried for the many friends I have serving in the Gulf.

Until tomorrow,

Peace

Padre Steve+

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Filed under Foreign Policy, History, iraq, middle east, Military, national security, US Navy, War on Terrorism

Padre Steve’s World Top 12 of 2011: A Big Thank you to my Readers

Well my friends it is time for my annual look at what were the most popular articles on Padre Steve’s World.

This year I went over 3 million views since the site began in February 2009 and over a million since the last new year.  People from over 200 countries and territories that pretty much act like countries have visited my little cyber space world.

I do find it interesting to see what people are reading on this site, what search terms they are using and what search engines they are using to get to the site. The folks at WordPress.com which hosts this site have a great statistic page for a baseball stat person like me is like a blog statistic version of Saber Metrics.  Now if they can only find a way to calculate my site states like the OBP and Slugging percentage…but I digress.

In 2009 I published my top 10 list and in 2010 I did my top 25 list so this year I am doing my top 12 of 2011. All of the articles on this list had over 4000 views each in the last 12 months.  Since I have now published almost 1000 articles on this site these are just a taste of what a reader can find here.

The number one article of the year is “Revisionist” History and the Rape of Nanking 1937 .  This was something that interested me for a long time and it is rather academic in its focus but has been at the top of my stats most of the year. The article is about those that seek to cover up or minimize the atrocities committed by the Imperial Japanese Army in city of Nanking in 1937.  I do expect the article to remain at or near the top of the list in 2012 with the release of The Flowers of War http://www.theflowersofwarthemovie.comstaring Christian Bale in 2012.

Number two on the list is Why Johnny Can’t Read Maps: NCAA Tournament Geography for Dummies and a Solution which I wrote back in 2010 during the NCAA Men’s Basketball Tournament.  It is a humorous look at how the NCAA decides what cities represent the various regions of the country.  I for one do now see how anything in the Pacific Northwest is part of the Southeast Regional bracket.  No wonder people have no clue about the geographic regions of the United States.  At least they could do a GPS search.

Number three on the list is an oldie but goodie I Miss the Music of the 70’s and 80’s. The article itself is a musical look at the history of of 1970s and 1980s. Since I grew up with this music it is really a part of who I am. Unfortunately many of the links to the music videos are no longer operative but the article is interesting and anyone with half a brain can find the songs on You Tube or any number of various sources.  Since then I have published a number of other articles on the music of this time period which are filed in the Padre Steve’s Music page.

Number four on this site is an article about the death of the noted evangelist David Wilkerson who I had and still have a great deal of respect for; The Unexplained and Tragic Death of David Wilkerson.  I wrote the article because of the circumstances of his death.  I suggested after looking at the evidence including his writings and the actual accident report and suggested that it was possible that his death was a case of “suicide by car.”  I did not expect the reaction that I received. Some people were quite offended that I suggested that Wilkerson suffered from depression and that the circumstances of the accident pointed to either suicide or negligent driving on his part.  In fact some of the comments were so abusive and irrational that I finally for the first time and only in the history of this site closed the comments section.  I just got tired of the abuse and tired of answering the same abusive comments time and time again.  The article and a couple of follow up articles do point out the pressure that many ministers are under and how depression and crisis’s of faith can afflict people of great faith who have helped many people and were not in any way disparaging of Reverend Wilkerson. However I found that even suggesting such is tantamount to smashing idols.  Oh well…it is a good article and I do stand by it.

Fifth place goes to an article that I wrote about the nearly psychotic accusations hurled by Iran at the United States for our Navy’s official name for what they call the Persian Gulf, the Northern Arabian Gulf, it is a somewhat humorous look at a rather serious subject.  Why don’t we just call it the Gulf of Whatever we want to call it? Padre Steve Says the Iranians Whine too Much

Number six on the hit parade is a rather academic military history article about the Battle of Stalingrad The Anniversary of Disaster: Stalingrad 67 Years Later that I wrote in January 2010.  I find that Stalingrad and other campaigns are instructive even today.

Seventh place belongs to a short article about D-Day entitled D-Day: Omaha Beach which is a nice starting point for those interested in the Normandy campaign.

Coming in at number eight is an article about one of my favorite subjects Baseball and civil rights Jackie Robinson and Dr. Martin Luther King they Changed America.

The ninth most popular article on this site is a follow up to the number three article again involving the music of the 1970s and 1980s More about Why I Miss the Music of the 70’s and 80’s .

Number ten is my 2009 top ten article Padre Steve’s World: Top 10 articles of 2009.

Another academic military history article Wacht am Rhein: The Battle of the Bulge came in at number eleven on the list.

Slipping in at number twelve is an article about military recruiting slogans Memorable Recruiting Slogans and the All Volunteer Force.

There are other articles not in the top 12 for this year but that still get a lot of views and are worth reading. A good number are on military or naval history one of the best of which is The Ideological War: How Hitler’s Racial Theories Influenced German Operations in Poland and Russia while two other military theory article is Learning to Apply the Principles of Counterinsurgency Part One: Introduction to the Soviet-Afghan War and The Effects of Counter-Insurgency Operations on U.S. and French Forces in Vietnam and Algeria and Implications for Afghanistan.

Among the music articles I recommend Laughing to the Music: The Musical Genius of Mel Brooks and just for fun there is an article about a little church that gets pretty crazy, almost Iran Mullah crazy without the killing dissenters, Halloween Book Burning Update: Bring the Marshmallows Please!. One of my favorite faith and life articles Star Trek, God and Me 1966 to 2009. There are also a lot of articles on baseball, faith, religion, history and politics on the site.

Anyway, if you are new to the site and haven’t dug around too much just yet those are good starting points.  Hopefully anyone that stops by will find something to interest them, thought provoking or funny, academic or asinine, historical or hysterical.  Feel free to browse comment and if you like the site subscribe or join me on Facebook or Twitter.

Blessings on you and thanks to all of my readers as well as Cheru Jackson at Alpha Inventions and the folks at Kadency who help publicize this site. I do recommend both, especially Alpha Inventions to bloggers that seek a wider audience for their writings.

Hopefully 2012 will be a good year for all of us and somehow despite all problems that beset our world that 2012 will be better than 2011.

Peace

Padre Steve+

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Tension in the Gulf: Don’t Miscalculate; Speak Softly and Carry a Big Stick

“War is the unfolding of miscalculations.” Barbara Tuchman

Iran’s navy chief Habibollah Sayyari briefs media on the naval exercise 

The greatest danger in the current war of words between Iran and the United States is the danger that the Iranians one side or the other will miscalculate the will, resolve and strength of the other.  Teddy Roosevelt made the comment “speak softly and carry a big stick.” The Iranians have been shouting loudly and brandishing a small stick and if they are not careful they will bluster their way into a naval war that they cannot win and that will cause significant economic and physical disruption in the region.

The Iranian Navy and Revolutionary Guards Naval Forces are about halfway into a 10 day series of exercises in the Gulf of Oman, the Strait of Hormuz and the Northern Arabian Gulf, or what they call the Persian Gulf. Iranian leaders have increased their rhetoric in regard to closing the Strait of Hormuz if more sanctions are leveled against them for their nuclear program.

The bellicosity of the Iranians comes at a time when they are feeling internal political pressure from Iranian young people, as well as external diplomatic and most likely espionage campaigns.  The latter are designed to slow down or halt their nuclear program which most analysts now believe to be designed to produce nuclear weapons.

For what it is the Iranian Navy can threaten the strait and maybe even close it for a limited time. It is possible if they ever launched a surprise attack on an isolated US or Western warship using their “swarm” tactics close inshore to Iran in the constricted waters of the strait or in a narrow part of the NAG that they could sink or cause severe damage to it.  They would probably mine the straits if they could do so before hostilities began or before sufficient forces could be deployed to stop them. Likewise their missile forces and special operations forces could cause some damage and chaos in the Gulf but the repercussions would isolate and devastate Iran.  However closing the strait or attacking a US or Western warship would be the end of Iran’s naval forces and cause more damage to the country than its leaders are willing to accept at least right now. The Iranians would find that they were fighting far more than the United States Navy should this happen and their Russian and Chinese supporters would more than likely do everything possible to dissuade them from trying this.  Since China imports the bulk of its oil from the Gulf it is unlikely that they would support the Iranians.

While such a direct attack is unlikely the possibility of an accidental war caused by miscalculation on the part of one side or the other is always real and should the Israelis strike Iran’s nuclear facilities Iran would certainly retaliate against Israel but also US Forces and installations in the Gulf and probably against the Gulf States and even Iraq.

USS John C Stennis (US Navy Photo)

Regarding how such a campaign would be fought the United States would stand off a safe distance and pound Iranian naval, air and coastal defenses and not allow Iranian surface ships to get close enough to make a swarm attack.  This is a big reason that the USS John C. Stennis transited the straits and entered the Gulf of Oman (GOO).  Operating in the open seas gives the blue water US Navy the edge. The Iranian navy’s ships lack the range and endurance for sustained operations at sea and could not sustain a blockade. US attack submarines would hunt down the Iranian Kilo class subs before they could become a threat and US Naval Aviation assets would sweep the surface assets of the Iranian Navy and Revolutionary Guard Naval Forces from the sea while destroying Iranian coastal defenses on the islands in and the Iranian side of the strait.  Once the strait was cleared tanker traffic would resume and Iran would be the biggest loser.  History shows time and time again that light coastal naval forces are no match for a professional seagoing navy even if they score an occasional victory.

Much has been made about Iranian claims to have tracked the USS John C Stennis as she transited the straits.  That is nothing new, the Iranians have air, sea and land surveillance of the narrow straits. The fact is that US ships transit the strait and its approaches on high alert and have done so since the Tanker Wars of the 1980s.  Every Iranian move is watched by the US Navy.  Likewise while transiting the strait the ships of both sides communicate with each other regarding navigation.  It is standard practice.

Since I believe that the Iranians despite their rhetoric are far more prudent than some believe and that they will not launch an unprovoked attack. Even if they succeeded in temporarily closing the straits and even scoring some kind of naval victory by sinking a US ship the victory would be extremely short lived. US and other forces would stream to the region and devastate all that is Iran. The costs for the Iranians and their long term goal of regional hegemony would be too great for them to intentionally start a naval confrontation in the Gulf.  However the chances of either side miscalculating and stumbling into war should not be underestimated.

The biggest danger now is the potential for miscalculation but Iran’s long term goal of dominating the Gulf and acquiring nuclear weapons will probably keep them from attempting anything of this sort. That said there are factions in Iran that could try to use the threat of new sanctions to force a confrontation in the straits and for that we must be ready to meet the threat.  Iranian threats should not be disparaged nor their political and military will underestimated. To underestimate an Iran’s capabilities and will are extremely dangerous. At the same time we should not overestimate their capabilities and yield to their threats when they threaten to cut off the flow of oil from the Gulf.

The United States needs to follow Theodore Roosevelt’s advice and remember history as we follow the situation and ensure that whatever Iran does that we will not be surprised or unprepared.

Peace

Padre Steve+

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Damned if you do…Damned if you Don’t: The Middle East Protests and U.S. Foreign Policy

Stark Choices for U.S. Diplomacy in the Middle East

I have always loved the “Far Side” cartoon that serves as the theme for today’s short essay. I have been thinking about this ever since the fall of Ben Ali in Tunisia and comments from a couple of my regular readers regarding yesterday’s post about Bahrain brought the cartoon to mind.

In the Middle East the United States as well as most of the Western World is caught in the horns of a dilemma of our own making. Ever since the Iranian revolution we have chosen to ally ourselves with despots and dictators because they promoted stability in the region. To some extent this is good, stability and having allies that have an interest in ensuring that no more radical religious regimes such as Iran’s is in our interest. However this stability has come at a cost. We have betrayed the ideals that we have promoted in our Declaration of Independence, Constitution and even what we have partnered with other Nations in the U.N. Declaration of Human Rights.

We have backed rulers of countries that while they to some degree support our foreign policy aims have in many cases repressed the legitimate political, economic and social desires of their people.  Finally after many decades we are seeing the end of regimes that we have supported and face the uncertainty of what comes next.

In a sense we face a conundrum. If we continue to wholeheartedly support the leaders and governments that have been for the most part reliable allies in the region we will be seen by the majority of the people in the region as siding with oppressors. On the other hand if we elect to abandon them we will be seen as an untrustworthy ally by others that we have depended on in our attempt to contain the influence of Iran, contain the spread of militant revolutionary Islam, keep the fragile “Cold Peace” that Israel has enjoyed with Egypt and Jordan intact and in our war against Islamic Terrorism spearheaded by Al Qaeda.

On one hand we have our ideals on the other we have legitimate foreign policy, economic and security concerns. If we fall too far to either side we run significant risks. If we try to maintain a balance between these interests and ideals we run the risk of appearing to stand for nothing and be despised by those that we have allied ourselves for decades and those who desire the same freedoms that we have enshrined for ourselves and which we have held out as a beacon to the world.

There is also the reality that not all of the protestors are actually protesting for freedom and democracy but simply to overthrow regimes that they disagree with in order to establish radical anti-western and anti-Israeli regimes which support the overthrow of the West and the establishment of a new Caliphate.

While this is going on we are divided at home and have little in the way of a national consensus in our foreign policy and in fact are doing all that we can to destroy each other in the name of our own political and social agendas.  Meanwhile American and NATO troops are engaged in a bitter struggle against the Taliban in Afghanistan which is not going well.

I think that we are damned if we do and damned if we don’t. It is a classic “lose-lose” situation. I only hope that we are able to ensure that no matter what happens that our losses are kept to a minimum.

Peace

Padre Steve+

 

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Why don’t we just call it the Gulf of Whatever we want to call it? Padre Steve Says the Iranians Whine too Much

Warning: Denny Crane over the top alert. Readers with no sense of humor, irony or wit should either turn back now or get a life because I don’t want to hear the whining in the comments section like those infernally serious supporters of Julian Assange.


Well. It seems that the Mullahs in Iran have their turbans in a twist about an entry in the Navy Correspondence manual. It seems that they are deeply hurt and offended that the United States Navy has made official what we have been doing for decades.  We have offended these mangy Mullahs by using the nomenclature Arabian Gulf rather than the Persian Gulf for the body of water that lies between the Arabian Peninsula and the land formerly known as Persia.

You see for centuries this body of water was known as the Persian Gulf and everyone but the Arabs thought that it was okay.  But in the 20th century the Persian for some reason relabeled itself Iran for some ungodly reason. I mean they took a great historical brand name and chucked it for something that only the namby pamby do, they ran to I-ran. They even admit that they ran from the great label of Persia. Think of it, the Persians, ruled half the known world till the Greeks kicked their ass. I’m sure that was like the Yankees losing the 2004 ALCS to the Red Sox but the Yankees didn’t change their name to the Spankees did they? No they didn’t.  I’ll tell you what they did; they just went out and kept buying talent until they won another World Series.

Then they compounded their bad marketing by throwing out their King, taking hostages and doing all sorts of other unseemly stuff like not allowing women to wear mini-skirts or men to drink booze in public. I mean it was like they were trying to create Bob Jones University in the sand.  I for one think that one Bob Jones University is enough and by God it’s an American institution and shouldn’t be exported to people that won’t wear suits and power ties.

I’m sorry but these Iranians want us to keep calling the Arabian Gulf by a name they don’t even call their own country anymore. Sounds like whining to me. After all the only reason it was called the Persian Gulf was that they were the Big Kahuna way back when and stomped all over the Arabs whenever they could and the Arabs loathe them for it.  That’s why the Arabs want us to whack them and wouldn’t object to the Israelis doing it to though they wouldn’t say so publicly.  For crying out loud the Arabs have rights too and they have about the same amount of coastline around this body of water as the county that won’t call their own country Persia anymore.  Sounds like sour grapes to me.  I think that if you change your country name then any right you have to the old name goes away.  You don’t see the Washington Nationals putting on Montreal Expos uniforms on old timer’s day, no they use Washington Senators uniforms.

They act like the USA is insanely jealous of them. Like hell we are. We are a self confident bunch that believes that even if things are really sucky that we will find a way to make lemons out of lemonade even if we have to squeeze a lemon grower or two do it. If we were so petty we would be calling the Gulf of Mexico the Gulf of America because we like circle half of it and anytime oil spills it ends up on our shores not Mexico’s.  But we don’t spite our neighbors to the south by doing this because we’re better than that.  However if Mexico was to up and change its name to France or something like that we would be under no obligation to keep calling it the Gulf of Mexico would we? I dare say not. Pleasantries aside we tell them that if they don’t like their name we call the Gulf whatever we want. Of course the Mexicans have enough real pride and self respect not to rename their country unlike the country that used to be called Persia until they renamed it.

So the “proud” Iranians are upset. Perhaps if they start calling themselves Persia again they would have room for this whiney jibber-jabber. Until then my friends they can pound sand, which I understand that they have a great deal of in their country and the United States Navy can go ahead calling it whatever we want.

Two words my friends,

Padre Steve+

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Iran Makes Noise in Persian Gulf: Obama Dispatches Patriots and Ships to Deter

Mahmoud Ahamadinejad threatens a “harsh blow at global arrogance”

Something is going on in Iran.  The despotic regime of Mahmoud Ahamadinejad has been cracking down on dissidents and protestors over the last few months since the disputed presidential election.  Two opposition leaders were hanged yesterday.  The opposition is calling for protests on February 11th to coincide with the 31st anniversary of the Iranian Revolution.  At the same time government supporters and the Iranian Revolutionary Guard forces are planning both pro-regime activities as well as anti-opposition crackdowns in the days leading up to this event.  To add to the volatile mixture Iran’s President Mahmoud Ahamadinejad has threatened a “harsh blow against global arrogance” on the 11th.  There has been no explanation of what Ahamadinejad meant by his cryptic comments by the Iranian news service but  the Obama administration is taking them seriously by sending additional Aegis Missile ships equipped with anti-ballistic missile systems as well as Patriot air defense missiles to the Persian Gulf. To give you a glimpse of some of the confusion surrounding the current situation in Iran and in its implications for the West I have linked a number of articles from a wide variety of sources here:

http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2010/jan/31/iran-nuclear-us-missiles-gulf

http://www.cnn.com/2010/WORLD/meast/01/31/iran.protests/index.html?section=cnn_latest

http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSTRE60U18R20100131?type=politicsNews

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/americas/8490929.stm

http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2010/02/01/missile-shield-gulf-ups-ante-iran/?test=latestnews

http://www.dailystar.com.lb/article.asp?edition_id=1&article_id=111329&categ_id=17

http://www.dailytimes.com.pk/default.asp?page=201022\story_2-2-2010_pg20_1

http://www.theaustralian.com.au/news/world/gulf-countries-accept-air-defences/story-e6frg6so-1225825224604

http://english.farsnews.com/newstext.php?nn=8811080764

http://www1.voanews.com/english/news/middle-east/Supreme-Leader-Claims-Iran-Remains-United-Against-Outside-Threat-82073702.html

http://www.rferl.org/content/Irans_Protesters_Must_Keep_Their_Eyes_On_February_11/1942248.html

http://www.opendemocracy.net/volker-perthes/iran-2010-11-four-scenarios-and-nightmare

http://en.rian.ru/world/20100129/157712614.html

http://www.rferl.org/content/Iran_Media_German_Diplomats_Involved_In_December_Riots_/1941229.html

http://www.haaretz.com/hasen/spages/1146909.html

http://www.energypublisher.com/article.asp?id=25925

http://www.presstv.ir/detail.aspx?id=116955&sectionid=3510303

http://www.google.com/hostednews/afp/article/ALeqM5hos0sGvW5l2cEN2xO2ex4fhamzIw

http://www.ynetnews.com/articles/0,7340,L3838323,00.htmlhttp://www.ynetnews.com/articles/0,7340,L-3838323,00.html

http://www.english.globalarabnetwork.com/201001284565/World-Politics/iran-morality-police-vanish-as-more-protests-loom-in-tehran.html

Massed Protests in Iran have been met by force

If you take a look at the details of these various reports there are a number of possibilities in regard to Iran, its internal political tensions and its repeated threats to US and Western interests. There are a myriad of possibilities many of which while directed outward are also directly related to the internal unrest in Iran in which a new generation who have grown up under the religious totalitarianism of the Mullah’s and men like Ahamadinejad who are convinced of the certainty of their beliefs and determined to impose them not only on their own people but their neighbors.  Ahamadinejad’s belief in the return of the 12th Mahdi to bring in a new era where the Caliphate will be established in Jerusalem is another wild card to factor into any equation.

Shahab-3 Missile test launch from mobile launcher

In the past year the Iranians have been increasingly more bellicose concerning their nuclear program and ballistic missile programs and have thwarted US, EU and UN initiatives to ensure that the nascent nuclear capacity is only capable of peaceful use and not capable of producing weapons grade uranium which could then be used in nuclear weapons.   They have expanded the number of centrifuges used for enriching uranium as well as continued to disperse and harden nuclear facilities against possible Israeli or US preventive strikes.  Additionally they have continued to increase their ballistic and cruise missile capabilities and the newer versions of the Shahab missile are capable of striking Western Europe.  The Revolutionary Guard forces have been actively supporting the Hezbollah terrorist group in Lebanon which in 2006 waged a successful war against Israel on the Israeli-Lebanese border.  It has continued to improve its asymmetric warfare capabilities as well as Naval and Revolutionary Guard Naval force capacity for disrupting shipping in the Straits of Hormuz through which a large percentage of the world’s oil is transported.

Iranian Missile Boat and Helicopter

Ahamadinejad’s latest remarks are ambiguous and could mean a number of things ranging from empty rhetoric designed to evoke a response from the United States or Israel up to military action.  Possible events within the continuum could be measures to destabilize Iraq where recently Iranian forces briefly occupied an Iraqi oil facility on the border near Basra before leaving when Iraq sent troops and threatened force to retake the facility.  Likewise a missile test of an upgraded or longer range Shahab could be planned, a military exercise in the Gulf or a test of a nuclear weapon which they might have succeeded in developing in their clandestine labs from previously enriched uranium.  The timing of the threat could also mean a military attack against Israel or US allies in the Persian Gulf including Kuwait, Bahrain, Qatar, the United Arab Emirates or Saudi Arabia.  Iran could in a “doomsday” strike launch a nuclear weapon (should it have an operation weapon) or chemical or biological weapons against Israel or even the rival Sunni Moslem Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, provoking a retaliatory strike which could embroil the region in a major war and might have worldwide implications. While I would think that the military attack would be a lower possibility the timing which coincides with the anniversary of the Revolution coupled with domestic unrest could mean that Ahamadinejad may feel that the benefit outweighs the risk.  It also could mean a stronger domestic crackdown on Iranian dissidents, whichever course of action the Iranians take it could make life even more interesting.

Shore based C-802 Surface to Surface Anti-Ship Missile in Iranian service

With the full spectrum of possibilities from simple rhetoric to a military strike laid out the Obama administration reportedly has sent Patriot Missile batteries to shield key Gulf allies and dispatched additional Aegis anti-ballistic missile capable ships from the US Navy to the Gulf.  Past remarks by the administration have been perceived as weak by the Iranians and the demonstration of US resolve by the dispatch of additional forces to the region may be designed to show that the Obama administration is not indecisive but capable of countering military threats to the region.

Additional ships of the Arliegh Burke Class that carry SM-3 missiles and Ant–Ballistic Missile systems have been moved into the Gulf along with Patriot Missile batteries

The administration’s move is prudent considering the potential threat.  Iran does not have the capabilities to fight a sustained war but could if fueled by the apocalyptic vision of Ahamadinejad mean that the Iranian government is willing to risk a confrontation with the United States because it perceives the Obama administration as weak.  I think that such an assumption by Ahamadinejad would be a serious mistake, however if he were to attempt a military or asymmetric-terrorist act of some kind he could create chaos until the United States and our allies eliminate his offensive capability.

Iranian Nuclear facilities are dispersed around the country and in hardened sites

Potential problems that Iran could cause the United States could include disruption of transition efforts in Iraq through military or terrorist activity as well as to cause casualties or damage US military forces in that country. Far less likely is the possibility that the Iranians could offer support to their rivals in Al Qaida and the Taliban in Afghanistan if for no other reason than to disrupt the US/NATO mission in that country. Likewise the Iranians could attempt to cause economic and diplomatic problems in the region that would adversely affect the US and world economy that could be done short of war.

To deal with all possibilities the United States must not only be militarily ready to respond to any military threat but also to be able to exercise the full spectrum of diplomatic, economic and intelligence resources of its own and our allies.

So in about a week and a half we will know what the cryptic Ahamadinejad meant by his latest outburst, hopefully there will be some clarification before then so the US and its allies in the region can coordinate an effective response.  With tensions rising and uncertainty in the air it is important for the US, Israel and the West to get this right and hopefully give the Iranian opposition time to force Ahamadinejad and his supporters in the Iranian clergy and the Revolutionary Guard from power.  There is both danger and opportunity in the coming days and one can only hope that the Iranian opposition will be successful.

Peace,

Padre Steve+

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