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“Experts” Wrong, Padre Steve Right: Giants Win the Pennant! Defeat Phillies in Six to Advance to World Series

Ryan Howard looks as he is rung up on a called third strike as Buster Posey celebrates (AP Photo/Matt Slocum)

The Philadelphia Phillies and their fans looked on in stunned disbelief as a team of no-names, cast offs and some remarkable starting pitchers and relievers defeated the Phillies in six games to advance to the World Series.  Once again it was a nail-biting tension filled decision that would have driven the Dalia Lama to drink and drink heavily if he is a Giants fan.  It was a game that exemplified the Giants season, a comeback win in the late innings that came down to the Giants closer Brian Wilson against Phillies slugger Ryan Howard in a battle of power against power with two men on base and a full count and on that count he stuck the Phillies slugger out looking.

Juan Uribe hits the winning home run in game 6 (AP Photo/Eric Gay)

The game started with the Phillies getting out to an early 2-0 lead in the 1st inning. Giants’ starter Jonathan Sanchez had trouble finding the plate and was hit early. Placido Polanco walked and took second on a wild pitch and scored on a Chase Utley double. Utley took third when Ryan Howard singled and scored on a sacrifice fly by Jayson Werth. It looked like the Phillies were on their way to forcing a game seven and judging by the noise of the partisan Philadelphia crowd it seemed that the Giants just might get smacked around hard.  Sanchez was able to finish the inning and send the Phillies down in order in the second inning.  Phillies starter Roy Oswalt seemed in control early but the Giants tied the game in the third inning when Jonathan Sanchez hit a leadoff single and took second on a single by Andres Torres.  Freddy Sanchez then grounded out to advance the runners. Aubrey Huff singled to score Sanchez and Torres scored when Ryan Howard botched a ground ball by Buster Posey.

Fear the Beard: Brian Wilson throws in the 8th inning (AP Photo/Matt Slocum)

The bottom of the 3rd inning was interesting as Sanchez hit Chase Utley with a pitch to the back. Utley seemed to innocently pick up the ball and lob it back to the mound. A stare down and words between Utley and Sanchez resulted which escalated to words and then benches cleared as both teams took the field to be broken up by the umpire crew and cooler heads on both teams. Bruce Bochy took the angry Sanchez out of the game and send in Jeremy Affeldt who sent the Phillies down in order.

Let the celebration begin: Brian Wilson and Buster Posey great each other after striking out Ryan Howard (Photo by Al Bello/Getty Images)

The game settled down as neither team could get their offense going although both teams had chances in the 4th and 5th innings.  Affeldt retired the Phillies in order in the 4th inning and was relieved by Madison Bumgarner.  Bumgarner gave up a leadoff single to Jimmy Rollins and then retired Placido Polanco and Chase Utley on fly balls. Ryan Howard slammed a double to left center which sent Rollins to third.  Bochy had Bumgarner intentionally walk Jayson Werth to get to Shane Victorino who grounded harmlessly to Bumgarner to end the inning.  In the bottom of the 6th Bumgarner gave up a leadoff double to Raul Ibanez who went to 3rd base on a sacrifice bunt off the bat of Carlos Ruiz but was left stranded when Bumgarner struck out Ben Francisco and got Rollins to fly out to end the inning.

Unlikely and improbable victors (Photo by Al Bello/Getty Images)

Ryan Madson relieved Oswalt in the 7th and was able to keep the Giants off the board in that inning while Giants’ reliever Javier Lopez came in for the bottom frame and got Polanco to Fly out, Utley to ground out and sent Ryan Howard down swinging. The game went to the top of the 8th inning still knotted at two runs apiece and Madson came back out to pitch the top of the 8th.  Madson has been a one inning reliever all year so this was a change for him. He retired Pat Burrell on a ground out and Cody Ross on a deep fly ball to left which brought Juan Uribe to the plate. Uribe had jammed his right hand sliding into first in game one of the NLCS and sat out game two and took a pitch off the same hand in game five.  Uribe took Madson yard on a fly ball which kept going and tailing away in right field until it cleared the wall by a couple of feet.  The Phillies and their fans went silent as Uribe rounded the bases and scored the go ahead run.

Phillies look on in the 9th as hope fades away (AP Photo/Matt Slocum)

The Giants brought in starter Tim Lincecum into the game to pitch the bottom half of the 8th and he struck out Jayson Werth to begin the inning. He then gave up consecutive singles to Shane Victorino and Raul Ibanez and was lifted for closer Brian “Fear the Beard” Wilson. Wilson got Carlos Ruiz to line out to first baseman Aubrey Huff who threw to second to double up Victorino for the final out of the inning.

Buster Posey helps hold up the NL Championship trophy (AP Photo/David J. Phillip)

The Phillies sent out closer Brad Lidge in the top of the 9th inning to keep the game close and he did that though things did get a bit sporty for the Phillies when the Giants had runners on second and third with 2 outs with Buster Posey at the plate and Wilson on deck. Charlie Manuel had Lidge intentionally walk Posey to load the bases and Wilson grounded out to first to end the inning causing the entire Phillies nation to breathe a collective sigh of relief.

In the 9th inning Giants fans were treated to another inning of Giants’ baseball sometimes known as “torture ball.”  Wilson got the leadoff batter, pinch hitter Ross Gload to ground out and then walked Jimmy Rollins.  Rollins advanced to second on a ground ball fielder’s choice by Polanco and Wilson then walked Chase Utley to put runners on first and second to bring up slugger Ryan Howard who worked to count to a full count before going down looking on a called strike three to end the game. Silence engulfed the stadium as the Phillies and their fans sat or stood in stunned disbelief, a few boos were heard but the bulk of the noise in the stadium came from a group of cast offs, has beens and never weres who were dismissed for much of the season by almost every baseball expert, even the series MVP Cody Ross was sent home by the Florida Marlins before being picked up by the Giants in August.

Picked by most to finish no better than 3rd in the NL West the Giants were 7 games back of the Padres at the beginning of August.  They won the division on the last day of the season, defeated the Braves in the NLDS and were picked to lose the NLCS to the Phillies in 5 or 6 games by the same experts who gave them no chance at the beginning of the season.  Even in the pre-game show the commentators were picking the Phillies to force a game seven which the Phillies of course would win, I think hoping against hope to justify themselves.  I on the other hand picked the Giants to win by looking at the numbers, match ups and statistics as well as the psychological factor that the Giants had nothing to lose because all the experts were saying that they had no chance. I really think that the Phillies believed the experts.

I said that it would come down to pitching and in this both teams were pretty evenly matched with the Giants having a slightly better team ERA of 3.06 to the Phillies staff 3.08.  However the Phillies continued not to hit the ball well just as they did in the NLDS against Cincinnati, where only 7 of the 13 runs that they scored were earned runs.   The Phillies mustered 20 runs of which 18 were earned s opposed to the Giants total of 19 runs of which 18 were earned.  The Phillies hit a dismal .218 for the series collecting only 41 hits and the scrappy Giants hit .244 with 49 hits.  The Giants had a better on base percentage and better slugging percentage than the Phillies in this series.  This did not surprise me because of the Phillies dismal hitting in the NLDS and the fact that the Phillies and Giants had very similar numbers in all departments of offense except for stolen bases in the regular season. The experts had sold a myth that the Phillies were a massively better offensive team that would not let the Giants pitching staff get away with anything but the numbers told a different story a Phillies team that had a regular season batting average of .260 and 166 home runs and 1451 hits with a .745 OPS (on base+ slugging percentage) going up a Giants team that hit .257 with 162 home runs, 1411 hits and a .729 OPS.  The Phillies did score more runs than the Giants during the regular season but one always has to weigh run-production with the other numbers. I think that many people simply saw that the Phillies had 75 more regular season runs than the Giants and assumed that they would pound the Giants pitching anytime a Giants’ pitcher made a mistake.  They didn’t seem to look at the fact that the teams split their season series 3-3 and that the Phillies won two of those games in the Giants’ worst month of the season which was August.

Padre Steve Celebrates the Giants’ win and his prediction

The Giants now go home to face the Rangers in Game One of the 2010 World Series. I am sure that once again that they will be dismissed.  I will analyze the series as thoroughly as I did the NLCS and make my pick later in the week putting my obvious bias for the Giants aside in order to make an accurate pick.  Until then my friends have a great Sunday and great week.

Peace,

Padre Steve+

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Giants Defeat Phillies in 9th 6-5 go up 3-1 in NLCS as Posey and the Panda have big nights

Aubrey Huff raises his arms after he scores the winning run in Game 4 of the NLCS (AP Photo/Jeff Chiu)

The San Francisco Giants keep finding ways to win and of befuddling the experts in their NLCS matchup with the Philadelphia Phillies.  With most experts picking the Phillies to win this series in five or six games no matter what happens it will go seven.  Tonight in front of a wild crowd of Giants fans decked out in orange and black, wearing “fear the beard” beards, panda heads and any number of unusual outfits the Giants defeated the Phillies 6-5 beating Roy Oswalt in the bottom of the 9th to do it.

Buster Posey Tags out Carlos Ruiz in the 5th inning  (AP Photo/David J. Phillip)

The Giants got the first run on the board in the bottom of the 1st inning when Freddy Sanchez singled and then advanced to second and then third on wild pitches by Phillies starter Joe Blanton. With Sanchez on third base Buster Posey singled to get his first RBI of the night.  The Giants added to their lead in the bottom of the 3rd inning when with 2 outs Aubrey Huff singled and scored on a deep double by Buster Posey. 

Pablo the “Panda” Sandoval connects for a 2 RBI double (AP Photo/Jeff Chiu)

Madison Bumgarner was solid through four innings striking out 6 Phillies batters and only giving up 2 hits but lost his edge in the 5th inning.  The rookie gave up 4 singles one of which by Shane Victorino scored Ben Francisco to put the Phillies on the board but a tremendous throw from center fielder Aaron Rowland cut down Carlos Ruiz at the plate with Posey making a great play to block the plate and hold onto the ball in the collision with Ruiz.  This turned out to be a big play which kept the Phillies from a second run on the play and giving the Giants a badly needed out.  Chase Utley singled to put runners at first and second and brought Manager Bruce Bochy to the mound to lift Bumgarner in favor of Santiago Casilla. Casilla then gave up a double to Placido Polanco which scored both Victorino and Utley.  Casilla then intentionally walked Ryan Howard and hit Jayson Werth with a pitch to load the bases. Casilla then tossed a wild pitch which scored Polanco to give the Phillies a 4-2 lead. 

Andres Torres walked to lead off the Giants half of the 5th inning and advanced to 2nd base on a ground out by Edgar Renteria. He then scored when Aubrey Huff singled to end the 5th inning with the score the Phillies 4 and the Giants 3. Casilla retired the Phillies in order in the 6th and in the bottom half of the inning the Giants went back to work.  Pat Burrell led off with a walk and was followed by Phillies killer Cody Ross who smacked an inside fastball into the left field corner to put runners on second and third. This brought Pablo the “Panda” Sandoval to the plate. Sandoval who had been benched at the beginning of the series has been in a slump but in this at bat he took a Chad Durbin pitch to deep center for a double which scored both Burrell and Ross and give the Giants a 5-4 lead going into the 7th inning.

Javier Lopez came in and put the Phillies down in order in the 7th and the Giants loaded the bases in the bottom of the 7th with one out but Sandoval hit into an inning ending double play.  In the top of the 8th inning Lopez gave up a double to Ryan Howard to lead off the inning and was pulled in favor of Sergio Romo one of the Giants’ “black beards.” Romo gave up a double to Jayson Werth to tie the game before retiring Jimmy Rollins on a pop up and Ben Francisco and Carlos Ruiz on consecutive strike outs using just six pitches to do it. 

Fear the Beard: Brian Wilson shuts down the Phillies to collect the win  (Photo by Harry How/Getty Images)

With the score tied in the 9th inning the Giants brought closer Brian Wilson into the game. Wilson who has 4 saves in 6 playoff appearances got pinch hitter Ross Gload on a ground out to shortstop Juan Uribe who made an outstanding effort to get the out. He then struck out Shane Victorino and put Chase Utley out on a line drive to left field.  The tension mounted as the Phillies had closer Brad Lidge and starter Roy Oswalt warming up in the bullpen. As the Phillies half of the 9th ended it was Oswalt who got the call going on 2 days rest following his start in game two against the Giants.  Freddy Sanchez lined out to right for the first out which brought Aubrey Huff to the plate. Huff singled and then advanced to 3rd base on a single by Buster Posey which could have scored Huff had Jayson Werth not made a tremendous defensive play to keep the ball from going to the wall. This brought an unlikely hero to the plate. Juan Uribe playing with an injured hand was able to hit a medium depth fly ball to left which scored Huff from third to give the Giants a 6-5 win and a 3-1 lead in the NLCS.

 

Phillies catcher Carlos Ruiz sits in stunned silence as the Giants celebrate (AP Photo/David J. Phillip)

The Giants made a great team effort to win this game, the first game since September where they scored more than 4 runs.  Timely hitting by Buster Posey who went 4-5 with 2 RBIs, Pablo Sandoval with his 2 RBI double and Aubrey Huff who went 3-5 with an RBI helped push the Giants over the top in this see-saw game.  Brian Wilson got the win in relief and Roy Oswalt the loss in a rare relief appearance.  The teams meet for game five on Thursday with a battle of the aces on the offing as Roy “Doc” Hallady goes up against Tim Lincecum in what could be the deciding game of the series.  Giants fans accustomed to “Tortureball” need to break out their Xanax for this one which could be an epic playoff game with two of the best pitchers in baseball going against each other in a game that could send Halladay and the Phillies home until the spring.

Peace

Padre Steve+

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Cain is Able: Matt Cain and Giants down Phillies 3-0 Take NLCS Lead

Cain is Able: Matt Cain shuts down Phillies to win NLCS Game Three

Expert after expert picked Phillies ace Cole Hamels to master the San Francisco Giants while giving faint praise to Giants starter Matt Cain in game three of the NLCS at AT&T Park this afternoon. It seems that no matter what the Giants do to win they can get no respect from the baseball media establishment. First it was that they would finish no better than 4th or if they were lucky 3rd in the NL West. Then while some predicted them to defeat the Braves in 4 or 5 games is was almost a derisive pick figuring that even if the Giants got by the Braves that they would be no match for the mighty Phillies. Well that sports fans changed today as the great hope of the established sports media Cole Hamels and the vaunted Phillies lineup fell to the underdog, no name San Francisco Giants in a three hit shutout.

Aubrey Huff and Cody Ross  celebrate in the 4th inning. (Photo by Harry How/Getty Images)

The heroes for the Giants were predicable first there was Matt Cain who was given faint praise before the game by every commentator that I listened to. Cain pitched 7 innings giving up just 2 hits and no runs pitching out of a couple of tight jams that might have sent another pitcher scurrying for cover. When Cain was done Javier Lopez and Brian “Fear the Beard” Wilson came in to shut down the Phillies. On the offensive side of the house it was Hamels’ nemesis Cody Ross who with two outs in the bottom of the 4th inning singled to drive in Edgar Renteria. Ross was followed by Aubrey Huff who also had an RBI single to give the Giants a 2-0 lead against a pitcher that the experts said would shut them down. The Giants got another run in the bottom of the 5th inning when Aaron Rowland doubled and then scored from second with two outs on a fielding error by Chase Utley. 

Brain Wilson gets his 4th save of the post season (Photo by Ezra Shaw/Getty Images)

After that it was the Giants pitching, Cain, Lopez and Wilson that shut the Phillies down.  The middle of the Phillies order had 2 hits a single by Ryan Howard and another by Jimmy Rollins. The Giants staff struck out 7 Phillies and walked three with Cain hitting two batters.  Hamels gave up just 5 hits but surrendered runs with 2 outs in the 4th and 5th innings. 

The Giants now have a 2-1 series lead with rookie Madison Bumgarner facing Joe Blanton in game four of the series Wednesday night. Blanton has not pitched since September having been left off the NLDS roster by Phillies Manager Charlie Manuel.  There is talk that Manuel may move Roy Halladay up in the rotation on short rest but as of this moment Blanton is the scheduled starter for the Phillies.  The Giants now have a psychological advantage over the Phillies as they know that they can beat Halladay who has not beaten the Giants this season and has a career worst record against them as opposed to any other team.  If the Giants win tomorrow over Blanton then it will come down to a duel between Halladay and Tim Lincecum who has proven that he can handle the Phillies.  

Matt Cain has to be feeling good as in 14 innings of playoff baseball this year he has yet to allow an earned run.  The Giants have made this series very interesting and I expect them to continue to surprise the Phillies and the baseball media establishment in the days ahead. I predicted this series to go to seven with the Giants taking it but I could be wrong, it might go just 5 or 6 games.

Peace

Padre Steve+

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Phillies and Oswalt Down Giants 6-1 Even Series

Roy Oswalt shut down the Giants givig up just three hits in 8 innings (AP Photo/David J. Phillip)

The Philadelphia Phillies smarting from their game one loss against the San Francisco Giants evened the NLCS with a 6-1 win on Sunday night.  The game was actually much closer than the final score would indicate as the Giants were only down 2-1 until the bottom of the 7th inning when the Phillies chased Jonathan Sanchez from the game scoring their third run against the Giants starter.  With no outs the Giants sent in Ramon Ramirez who gave allowed a sacrifice bunt, a intentional walk and a single to score Roy Oswalt. With one out Jeremy Affeldt relieved Ramirez and the normally solid Affeldt after striking out Ryan Howard with two runners on base intentionally walked Jayson Werth to get to the slumping Jimmy Rollins loading the bases.  Rollins though delivered a double to right center which cleared the bases to give the Phillies a 6-1 lead.

Cody Ross goes yard for the third time in the NLCS (Photo by Jeff Zelevansky/Getty Images)

Roy Oswalt continued his stellar performance since coming to the Phillies holding the Giants to one run, a home run by Cody Ross and just 3 hits while striking out 9 batters.  Oswalt got the win and Sanchez the loss, his first against the Phillies this year.  The series resumes in San Francisco on Tuesday afternoon with Phillies ace Cole Hamels on the hill to face Matt Cain and the sea of orange and black at AT&T Park. I picked this series to go 7 games so it should be interesting.

Peace

Padre Steve+

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Ooops…Who Hit the Self-Destruct Switch? Four Errors and 3 Hit Batsmen Doom Reds, Phillies Win 7-4

Jay Bruce misses a fly ball in the 7th inning (AP Photo/Matt Slocum)

The Cincinnati Reds looked like that they had cracked the code on how to beat the Phillies after having been no-hit by Roy Halladay on Wednesday.  Tonight they went up against Roy Oswalt and drove the Phillies veteran out of the game after 5 innings.  Combining solo home runs by Brandon Phillips and Jay Bruce as well as some “small ball” took a 4-0 lead and looked like they were going to cruise to victory in game two of their NLDS series against the Phillies. Then someone somewhere flipped the self-destruct switch.

Once that happened in the 5th inning the Phillies got on the board with 2 runs.  In that inning the with 2 outs and Bronson Arroyo in control the Phillies were aided by back to back errors on Brandon Phillips and Scott Rolen to load the bases giving Chase Utley the chance to drive in 2 runs with a two out single.

The pain continued for the Reds in the 6th inning when Jayson Werth walked to lead off the inning and after Jimmy Rollins popped out Arroyo left being relieved by Arthur Rhodes who struck out Raul Ibanez for the second out. Werth stole second then Rhodes hit Carlos Ruiz in the knee to put runners at first and second.  Ben Francisco came in as a pinch hitter and Logan Ondrusek relieved Rhodes. Ondrusek then hit Francisco in the bill of his batting helmet just about an inch from his head in what could have been a tragic play. Instead it loaded the bases to bring up Shane Victorino. Ondrusek then walked Victorino to make the score 4-3.

Jayson Werth Scores (Photo by Chris Trotman/Getty Images)

Things got worse for the Reds in the 7th inning. They brought out rookie fireball pitcher Aroldis Chapman to face Chase Utley and Ryan Howard. Chapman hit Utley in the forearm with a 101 mile an hour fastball to put the lead runner aboard. Chapman sent Howard down on strikes.  This brought Jayson Werth to the plate; he hit a ground ball that Utley beat out at second to put two aboard. Jimmy Rollins came to the plate and hit a line drive to right field that Jay Bruce who committed an error simply missing the ball to score Utley while Werth scored when Brandon Phillips dropped the relay with Rollins taking . Raul Ibanez singled Rollins to third and Carlos Ruiz hit into a fielder’s choice to score Rollins. Chapman then gave up a single to Mike Sweeney before being relieved by Nick Masset who got Shane Victorino to ground out leaving the Reds behind by a 6-4 score.

The Phillies got an insurance run in the bottom of the 8th when with 1 out Chase Utley singled and stole second. Masset intentionally walked Ryan Howard and Jayson Werth singled to score Utley before Masset retired the side.

The Phillies brought in closer Brad Lidge and after walking the leadoff batter sent the next three batters down in order to secure the victory and get the save. Phillies reliever Jose Contreras got the win while rookie Aroldis Chapman got the loss.

The Reds meltdown which included 4 errors which led to 5 unearned runs and 3 hit batters who all scored.

The Phillies now go to the Great American Ballpark where on Sunday Cole Hamels (12-11 3.06 ERA) will try to get the sweep against Johnny Cueto (12-7 3.64 ERA).  The last time Hamels faced the Reds he won the game giving up 6 hits and allowing no runs in 7.2 innings work. Things do not look promising for the Big Red Machine.

Peace

Padre Steve+

 

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World Series Game Six: Yankees Win it All

Part Two: Written after the game

matsuiHideki Matsui World Series MVP

Yankees Pitchers against Phillies Batters: Andy Pettitte had very good stuff in the first five innings giving up one run on a sacrifice fly by Jimmy Rollins following a 1 out triple by Carlos Ruiz.  In the sixth Ryan Howard hit a one out two run homer driving in Chase Utley off of Pettitte who then stuck out Jayson Wirth.  With 2 outs Raul Ibanez doubled down the line to right. Joba Chamberlain came in to get the final out of the Phillies sixth. Ruiz singled and Jimmy Rollins hit into a fielder’s choice and then Chamberlain walked Shane Victorino.  Joe Girardi then pulled Chamberlain for Damaso Marte who came in to face Chase Utley who he struck out to end the inning. Marte struck out Ryan Howard who with the “K” set a new World Series record of 13 strike outs.  The Yankees then brought in Mariano Rivera who struck out Jayson Wirth for the second out. Raul Ibanez doubled to center after battling Rivera at the plate.  Pedro Feliz then popped out to Posada in foul territory to end the inning. Rivera faced pinch hitter Matt Stair to lead off the ninth getting him to line out to Jeter at short. Carlos Ruiz came up next and worked the count full before drawing a one out walk.  Jimmy Rollins flew out to Swisher in right bringing up Shane Victorino.  Ruiz took second on a strike to Victorino who after a battle with Rivera where he worked the count full grounded out to Cano at second to begin the celebration for the Yankees and their fans.

joegirardiYankees Manager Joe Girardi Led the Yankees back to the Top

Phillies Pitchers against Yankees Batters: Pedro Martinez struggled and was hit hard by Hideki Matsui who homered in the second with Alex Rodriguez on base and who singled with the bases load in the bottom of the third to drive in two more. By the end of the fourth he had pitched 62 pitches, giving up 4 runs on 3 hits with 2 walks and hitting Mark Teixeira with a pitch. Pedro was pulled by Charlie Manuel at the end of the fourth for reliever Chad Durbin who gave up a double to Derek Jeter to lead off the bottom of the 5th.  Jeter was advanced by a sacrifice bunt by Jerry Hairston who Mark Teixeira hit an RBI single to drive in Jeter.  After walking Alex Rodriguez Durbin was relieved by J.A. Happ who gave up a double to left to Matsui scoring Teixeira and Rodriguez.  By the end of the inning the Yankees were up 7-1. With one out and one on the Phillies sent in Chan Ho Park who got Derek Jeter to hit into a fielder’s choice and Jerry Hairston to fly out.  In the bottom of the seventh Park got Mark Teixeira on a strike out but gave up a grounder with eyes which got through for a base hit to Alex Rodriguez.  Park left the game as Scott Eyre came in to face Matsui. Rodriguez stole 2nd as Eyre struck out Matsui.  Eyre then walked Posada and stuck out Cano to end the inning.  In the 8th Eyre remained in the game getting Nick Swisher to ground out to third for the first out and Brett Gardner to ground out to second. With two outs Brett Myers came in to face Jeter who singled to right for his 175th career playoff hit and got Jerry Hairston to fly out on a soft fly to left.

With the win the Yankees won their 27th World Series and their first in the new Yankee Stadium.  In a historic sense it was fitting. In 1923 the Yankees won their first World Series title in the inaugural year of the original Yankee Stadium which sat silently in the dark next to the new ballpark. Hideki Matsui was the Series Most Valuable Player and the Yankees won their first series since they beat the Mets in the “Subway Series of 2000.  For the Yankees it was the end of a long streak of frustration in post season play.  The Yankee “old guard” of Jeter, Posada, Pettitte and Rivera returned to glory, additions since the last series win  including  Alex Rodriguez, C.C. Sabathia, Matsui and Johnny Damon got their rings as Yankees while Sabathia and Rodriguez shook off years of frustration.

In my next post I will give my analysis and reflections on the Series, the playoffs and the 2009 season.

yankees celebrateWorld Champion Yankees

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Padre Steve’s World Series Prediction and Book and Bible Burning Update

“The key to winning baseball games is pitching, fundamentals, and three run homers.” Earl Weaver

*Mar 06 - 00:05*C C Sabathia

Well Baseball Fans here we are, the day before the beginning of the World Series of Baseball to be played between the current World Champion Philadelphia Phillies and the resurgent New York Yankees. The series arguably should be one of the best in years.  There is no doubt that these teams are the best in baseball and no controversy that one or the other does not deserve to be in the series and if you can sum up who will win this series it is just like Earl Weaver said: “The key to winning baseball games is pitching, fundamentals, and three run homers.”  The two teams are well matched with each having great seasons and dominating their playoff opponents.

cliff-lee-philliesCliff Lee

Charlie Manuel took his Phillies from last year’s series title to the very hard to achieve return to the series in the following year.  Manuel is a great manager who survived some rocky times where the ever loving Philadelphia fans and sports writers were calling for his public execution outside Independence Hall. In doing this he managed the Phillies to a 93-69 record in the regular season, a 4 game win over the red hot Colorado Rockies in the Division Series and a 4-1 thumping of the Dodgers in the National League Championship Series.  Phillies hitting and the pitching of late season acquisition Cliff Lee from the Indians have been the secret to the Phillies success.  Ryan Howard, Chase Utley, Shane Victorino and Jayson Werth provide the power for the Phillies who hit 244 home runs in the regular season and scored 820 runs with a team batting average of .258.  Their pitching staff had an ERA of 4.16. Since the Phillies are in the National League their pitchers hit which has to drive down the team average. The Phillies pitching which was at times problematic held up in the playoffs with only one meltdown by the bullpen in game 2 against Colorado and one shelling of a starter, Cole Hammels in game 2 of the NLCS in Los Angeles.  Brad Lidge who went from the best reliever in the league to being relieved of his closer duties toward the end of the season came back and has not allowed a run in the playoffs.  Speaking of the playoffs the Phillies were 7-2 and hit 14 home runs, batted .261 with their pitchers having a .304 ERA.

charlie-manuelCharlie Manuel

The Yankees make their first return to the series since 2003 when they lost to the Marlins and the collapse in the 2004 ALCS which spelled beginning of the end of the Joe Torre dynasty in the Bronx.  Under new skipper Joe Girardi the Yankees failed to make the playoffs in 2008 for the first time since 1994.  The job of managing a team like the Yankees requires a certain finesse, to quote Earl Weaver “A manager’s job is simple. For one hundred sixty-two games you try not to screw up all that smart stuff your organization did last December.”  In the off season the Yankees added C.C. Sabathia, Mark Teixeira and A.J. Burnett to their arsenal, improved their bullpen as their “home grown” relief staff matured into a formidable force, and overcame off season controversy and injury with Alex Rodriguez and Girardi was able to make the adjustments and the Yankees came together as a team, not just a high priced bunch of individuals who happen to play together.  During the regular season the Yankees went 103-59 with the best record in the Majors.  They hit 244 home runs with a team average of .283 and the team ERA of 4.26.  In the playoff they went 7-2 with 14 Home Runs, a team batting average of .262 and ERA of 2.04.

ryan-howard1Ryan Howard

During the regular season the teams met for one three game series at Yankee Stadium where the Phillies took 2 out of 3.  Game one the Phillies won 7-3 with Jimmy Rollins hitting the first pitch out against A.J. Burnett in a game that netted 7 home runs.  The Yankees won the second game 5-4 coming from behind as Alex Rodriguez hit a tying home run of Brad Lidge and Melky Cabrera singled in the winning run giving Lidge the loss.  The rubber game was won by the Phillies 4-3 in 11 after Lidge blew a second save attempt in the 9th.

Mariners Yankees BaseballAlex Rodriguez

Looking ahead at match ups we know that both teams can hit, so the key will be pitching, as Earl Weaver said: “The only thing that matters is what happens on the little hump out in the middle of the field.” Game one will see C.C. Sabathia against Cliff Lee.  The two former Indians team-mates have performed magnificently in the playoffs with both dominating their opponents Lee pitching 24.1 innings with a 0.74 ERA and Sabathia 22.2 innings with a 1.19 ERA.  This one should be close and it will likely be decided on a big hit or a mistake, if the game gets to the bullpen and is close the Yankees should win.  In his career Lee has faced the Yankees 9 times and is 4-4 with a 5.02 ERA and a .297 team ERA when facing him in 52 innings work.  Sabathia has a career record of 1-1 against Philadelphia and a 4.36 ERA with Phillies hitters having a .265 average against him in 20.2 innings pitched.  All things equal I have to go on past performance and give the Yankees game one.

mariano-riveraMariano Rivera

Game two pits Pedro Martinez against A.J. Burnett.  Both men are capable of big game performances and both are no stranger to the other team.  Martinez has faced the Yankees 32 times with a career record of 11-11 against the Bronx Bombers including big games in the 2004 ALCS when pitching for the Red Sox.  He has a career 3.20 ERA against the Yankees as well as holding them to a .211 team batting average.  Martinez has had a long recovery period and is not the same as he was a few years back but he owned the Dodgers.  Since returning his is 5-1 in the regular season with a 3.63 ERA.  He gave up 7 home runs in 44.2 innings.  Burnett has a career record of 5-8 against the Phillies with a 4.75 ERA and with the Phillies and an opponent team batting average of .263.  In his one appearance this year against Philadelphia he gave up 5 runs on 8 hits including 3 home runs in 6 inning work.  This game is hard to call but I think that the Phillies take this one unless Pedro has a very bad outing.  If the game is close and Burnett can get the game to the bullpen the advantage shifts to the Yankees with Mariano Rivera in waiting in the bullpen.  He is the Yankees silver bullet should the game be close.

The series should go back to Philadelphia knotted at one.  In game 3 the Phillies will pitch Cole Hammels against Andy Pettitte.  Hammels was MVP of last year’s World Series.  Hammels is a career 0-1 against the Yankees in 2 starts in which he has pitched 13 innings with a 2.77 ERA and a .286 opposing team batting average.  This year he got knocked around a bit in Yankee Stadium.  This year Hammels has went 10-11 in 32 appearances with a 4.32 ERA and his opponents hitting .277 against him.  In the playoff he has suffered in 3 games and 14.2 innings work he has a 1-1 record but has given up 20 hits including 6 home runs, 12 walks with a 6.75 ERA.  Making him the game 3 starter is a good move by Charlie Manuel giving him the start in Philadelphia rather than New York but I do not think that this will save him.  I expect that the Yankees will hit him hard.  Andy Pettitte gets the start for the Yankees.  In 7 career starts against the Phillies he is 1-1 with a 3.67 ERA and a .273 opposing batting average.  He was knocked around by the Phillies in his appearance against them this year though the game was a no-decision for him.   During the regular season Pettitte went 14-8 with a 4.16 ERA and an opposing batting average of .271.  During the playoffs he is 2-0 in 3 starts with a 2.37 ERA and .246.  I give the advantage to the Yankees as I do not see Hammels pulling this one off.

When we get to game 4 the starters are not announced by assuming that the Yankees will pitch Sabathia and that they will win.  I expect that the Phillies will take game 5 with Cliff Lee back on the mound and force the series back to New York where Andy Pettitte will get the win.  If by some chance the Phillies win game 6 the Yankees will take it in game 7 with C.C. Sabathia going strong and Rivera closing the game out.  Two other factors could play a part in this series, the first is the weather and while the weather is not expected to be too bad you never know what happens this time of year.  The second factor that will likely hurt the Yankees is the lack of the designated hitter in the games in Philadelphia.

My prediction is the Yankees in 6 with an outside chance that the series will go seven games.  I expect that there will be much drama as the two teams are stacked with talent and personality. Jimmy Rollins has predicted a 5 game Phillies win which if you ask me is a pretty ballsy statement. The Phillies certainly are confident as the reigning champs and will not go down easily.  This has the makings of a classic World Series that no matter who wins should be amazing to watch.

And now a Book and Bible Burning Update:  The Grand Master Pastor Marc has announced “game on” and that he is going ahead with the Halloween Book burning at Amazing Grace Baptist Church in Canton North Carolina.  It begins at &PM until all the books are done… well done.  Anyway, don’t bother to bring the marshmallows or beer as Grand Master Pasto Marc has put this announcement on his website:

“This event is not open to the public. Only our members and those by special invitation from the pastor only. All others are tresspassing.” (Marc’s misspelling and grammar errors not mine.) Of course the Beloved Grand Master Pastor Marc is a “true scholar” as opposed to the rest of us apostates by his reasoning that a “A true scholar is one who believes the Bible (KJV) whether he understands it or not.” And a ‘scholar’ (most) today is someone who does not believe the Bible (KJV) is the Word of God, but questions it.”

He advertises “Great preaching and singing” but since he will likely be the preacher, and maybe his daddy too it seems a little like chest pounding to me.  The fact that this great preaching and singing will be simply entertaining the faithful versus reaching the lost seems a little disingenuous when he talks about wanting to save souls while not attracting media attention.  Anyone who posts to the web knows that it will be seen and if controversial picked up by the media.  Likewise his stated goal of only wanting “to make a statement to our community not to the world” rings hollow as he put it on the web, attempted to advertise in the newspaper and gave a TV interview.  He claims that it has been twisted and lied about by “commentators, reporters, and announcers” about but they are his words on TV as well as the website.  It’s hard to twist someone as straight forward as the Grand Master Pastor Marc.   He loves his community and the media, especially the media of whom he makes the following comparison. Our Media 2000 Years Ago-Same As Today.

Acts 17:5″But the Jews which believed not, moved with envy, took unto them certain lewd fellows of the baser sort, and gathered a company, and set all the city on an uproar, and assaulted the house of Jason (this is not your typical brother that would be “Blown away”), and sought to bring them out to the people.” As far as I know the media in Canton and Ashville is not heavily Jewish, nor have I heard about anyone assaulting his house, unless assaulting is meant being asked for media interviews.  The problem for the Grand Master Pastor Marc is that he wants to control and spin the message, and the one time he got on TV he looked stupid simply because he answered their questions.  Oh well if you want to get an invitation I do suggest calling him at 828-648-0213 or e-mail jonmarcgrizzard@aol.com

The website is here:  http://amazinggracebaptistchurchkjv.com/Download99.html

The church if you want to do a tail-gaiter off campus the address of the church and location of the book burning is 6841 Cruso Road Canton , N.C. 28716.  Look for the Sheriff and Fire Marshal who will be parked out front waiting to cite him for burning without a permit.

Peace,

Padre Steve+

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